Betfred Ebor Handicap Dosage & Trends Analysis

Can O’Meara’s form continue through to the big one?

Well it’s safe to say that it was all bets off on Dinkum Diamond on waking up on Friday morning! On writing my article it was looking great, he was set to race on his favoured Good to Firm ground. On clicking publish on the post news started to reach me that the heavens had opened over the Knavesmire, a quick check of Twitter confirmed that York was indeed being swamped by biblical style rain. On waking up a quick check of the going confirmed we were looking at Good to Soft. Gun back in it’s holster and trigger not pulled on the Dinkum Diamond bet. It’s a royal pain in the ass but he was never going to win on that ground and I was never going to waste my money on him under those conditions. Frustrating…

In the race itself I DID back SHEA SHEA & ROSDHU QUEEN. For a brief moment I though our main selection was going to get up but he just wasn’t getting there. Did the rain softened/rain lashed ground blunt his speed? Probably, but that’s racing. He wouldn’t be as dependent on Good to Firm as, say, Dinkum D so for all it was an inconvenience I wouldn’t use it as an excuse, he only went down by 1/2 a length after all.

But what of the winner JWALA? A surprise winner? My first reaction was yes but once I looked at my own figures I had to say no, not so much. On my final figures she sat in the next group down from the shortlist (along with Tickled Pink) with a combined score of 12/16. Once the full subscription service kicks in over the jumps I will probably look to include all combined scores within the guide for subscribers to use.

Going forward from the race DINKUM DIAMOND remains on the BDH list. It was pretty clear after all my Good to Firm waffling yesterday that come the morning of the race he was a no-bet for us and we should read nothing more into it other than conditions went completely against him. We may be hard pushed to get on him in a Good to Firm 5f race before the season is out but we live in hope and, as always, at the mercy of the Great British weather…

Ebor Handicap full Analysis Guide…

I feel we are in for another bit of weather watching for Saturday’s action on the Knavesmire as the weather forecast is for more heavy rain to lash the track. Whether it will be in as quite so biblical proportions as Thursday night is another matter but there is plenty forecast and I would urge you to keep an eye on the skies.

It looks a competitive affair (naturally) and as well as my selections in the guide I also have the David O’Meara trained TROPICAL BEAT running for me. If you remember he was the selection in my rare ante-post analysis for the Ebor back on the 14th of August. He was readily available at 25/1 back then and now sits on the much tighter price of 10/1. So far so good on the ante-post front then as he a) is actually lining up and b) he is much shorter in the market than he was when I backed him 10 days ago. In my experience it doesn’t always work out that way!!

Anyway enough of my jibber jabber, the full BDH analysis guide is available for you all to download from the following link…

>>>Free Betfred Ebor Handicap Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and remember, keep an eye ont’ weather!

NTF Fantasy Football League…

Many thanks to all of you that joined the Fantasy League last week. There is around 40 of us in it so that should be great fun to follow as the football season bobs along.

If you still want to join the league then head to http://fantasy.premierleague.com and in the ‘LEAGUES’ tab enter my code – 1170033-369849.

It’s all good fun in the NTF league but in the overall league you can win some tasty prizes. It’s all free to enter and worth a shot if your a footie fan.

Sky Bet Super-6 – £250,000 to the winner!

Did any of you come close last week?! I probably did the best I have ever done with 2 correct scorelines and 1 correct result!!

I was having a dig about the site and it turns out you can create a private league within the main game…so that’s what I have done!

All you do is sign-in to the Super 6 site, head to the ‘Leagues’ tab, click on ‘join a league’ and enter the code 2Q2M8S.

Lets see if one of us can land the main prize, but if not let’s see who is at least best at predicting the scores!

You need a SKYBET account to play the FREE Super 6 game, if you don’t have one then sign up here today.

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes Dosage & Trends Analysis

It would be ‘fair Dinkum’ if Cathy could do the business on Diamond!

It’s been a fairly quiet week for me so far on the Knavesmire but with the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes blasting into action as the centerpiece of the Friday card it’s time to get stuck in!

I have pulled together a full (and free) Dosage and Trends analysis guide for the 5f contest but before I lavish that upon you all we first have the small matter of a BDH qualifier, funnily enough also lining up in the Nunthorpe Stakes…

BDH Qualifier: 3.40 York – DINKUM DIAMOND

DD already secured us some each-way profits when running 3rd in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot but today he faces a much stiffer challenge.

What he faces today is…

5 furlongs – Tick. All 4 career wins have come over the trip.

Good to Firm ground – Tick. All 4 career wins have come on Good to Firm.

Group 1 company – He is yet to win a Group race.

Is he really up to Group 1 company? To be fair to him he did run a decent 3 3/4L 7th in this race as a 2yo in 2010 on only his 4th ever career start and has run some fine races in Group company at various points of his career. I couldn’t say confidently that he is a G1 beast in waiting but if he is ever going to win one it would be under these Good to Firm-5f conditions.

All 4 of his career wins have come on Good to Firm over 5f and his form line on G/F reads 116733113. Breaking it down further we see that on Good To Firm he has had 9 runs – 4 wins – 3 places (only 2 un-placed runs) whilst on ground that is softer than Good to Firm his record reads 15 runs – 0 wins – 6 places (9 un-placed runs); the forecast Good to Firm is very much in his favour. If we look just a touch closer we also see that in his last 14 runs he has only faced Good to Firm ground on 2 occasions, those 2 runs producing a 1st & 3rd.

To balance things up, however, when you open up my analysis guide for the race you will see he sits pretty close to the bottom of the pile, he is far from a snug fit on the trends or the Dosage. To be fair though the BDH attack line doesn’t take into account those things so I’m willing to overlook that, I’m merely pointing out that DD has a fair task on his hands.

DINKUM DIAMOND is available at mammoth odds but with him facing his much preferred 5 furlongs on his even more preferred Good To Firm and possibly/probably being drawn on the pace side (more of that in the race guide below) I think we at least need to have a a slice of him each-way. If he turns out to be not quite up to Group 1 level then so be it, however, the facts are I’m not willing to let him go un-backed at the available odds with his 2 perfect race conditions staring him slap bang in the face!

**WEATHER WARNING!!! Just as I finish writing this article I hear of biblical rain and thunderstorms falling in York!! Best we check the ground before placing the bets, must be a very serious chance of it NOT being Good to Firm come the start of the first race and hence DD NOT getting his ideal conditions…

Bloody Yorkshire weather….

As they sat in these parts, FOOK SAKE!!

Nunthorpe Stakes full Analysis…

It feels like I’ve already covered the race in detail!! But fear ye not BDH-ers I’ve so much more for you in the shape of the full BDH ‘Trosage’ guide, available for you all to download for free from the link below.

The analysis for this race does a fine job of cutting the field into a manageable chunk so hopefully the winner is at least on the shortlist (if of course it isn’t Dinkum D!!!)…

>>>Free Nunthorpe Stakes Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

**WEATHER WARNING & SIGNIFICANT GROUND CHANGE!!! This article/guide was written last night when the ground was Good to Firm. I awake this morning to find we are now faced with Good to Soft! History has told my betting bank that is a time to tread carefully and we could be in for a bit of a guessing match as to the actual conditions they will be racing on. It’s not the Good to Soft that is the problem but the rapid change from Good to Firm to Good to Soft, as already mentioned please tread carefully…

Free Guides & Updates

The National Hunt season is reaching ever closer and with that comes the resumption of NTF.

I will soon be releasing a number of FREE NTF guides to members of the FREE NTF service, similar to the ones that are currently available to new members here

If you want to receive regular updates and download an array of free guides from BDH/NTF then please visit the following page and join the growing community –

>>> Join the BDH/NTF community

On joining you will be sent a link to download a multitude of FREE GUIDES, including free horse racing tips, pointers, guides and free horse racing betting systems.

(If you are a current NTF/BDH member then you can continue with with life as normal :))

Ben (BDH)