BDH Saturday Qualifier: Dinkum done by the downpour?

Diamond in the rough?!?

One BDH qualifier for us on Saturday but is the ground playing for or against us at Ascot?

Before I get on to that though we have a wee bit of house keeping for our midweek BDH runner…

Thursday BDH runner – MISSION APPROVED (Warwick)

Another placed effort for the squad, this time a 3rd placed 1 length defeat at BFSP 7.4. I think we were a smidgen unlucky here as James Doyle had to get across early from the wide draw and that may have just left him a tad short for his finishing effort. MA was in the lead entering the final furlong but he just couldn’t sustain the effort all the way to the line. I was half banking on a decent amount of rain falling by the time our race was off (my original post on Mission Approved stated that ground with cut in it would help) but it just didn’t come in enough buckets to properly change the ground; when you need the rain it doesn’t come and when you don’t want it (like when you are walking the dogs!) it comes down in buckets!

Anyway I’m not overly disappointed with this run, it was a tough (although not impossible) draw to overcome but this was a decent effort. He has now run twice for us and been beaten a head and a length and I’m still happy to keep him in the squad for now. Hopefully he will get ground with a bit of cut in it sooner rather than later…

Now onto Saturday’s qualifier…

BDH Runner: DINKUM DIAMOND 1.30 Ascot

Ascot is currently SOFT so that quite simply means NO BET for us. We want Good to Firm or at the least Good but Soft is a no go. If he somehow wins on the Soft stuff then the world will have dropped off it’s axis!

DD has run 3 times for us since making the squad. We managed to grab some nice E/W profits when he ran on the Good to Firm at Ascot (3rd at 22-1, was 33’s in the morning), he got a troubled passage in the Stewards Cup next time out and then the ground went against him/us at York and he was a no-bet.

There will be others much more suited to the underfoot conditions in this race and I’ll happily leave him alone in this Listed contest. We may indeed struggle to get him on his favoured conditions now before this season is out…

Arc De Triomphe – Sunday

I am neck-deep in National Hunt stuff at the minute but I have taken time out to put Sunday’s big race at Longchamp under the ‘Trosage’ microscope and I will have a full and free BDH analysis guide ready for you to download here on the Blog.

To make sure you don’t miss out on this free and alternative guide for one of the worlds most famous and prestigious races simply join the NTF/BDH FREE list, where you will also be able to download a clutch of free racing guides and mini-angles…

>>>Join the FREE NTF/BDH list today

Ben (BDH/NTF)

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BDH Qualifier: Mission Approved or Mission Impossible?

 

Let’s hope it isn’t Mission ‘Impossible’ from stall 15…

A bit of mid-grade, mid-week action for us today with one of our BDH squad tackling the 6 furlong trip at Warwick…

BDH Runner: MISSION APPROVED 5.10 Warwick

We were very unlucky not to collect with him at Kempton last time out when he went down in a photo-finish by a head. That was a career best on the figures and his A/W mark was also put up 5lbs to 85 by the handicapper off the back of the run. He is able to run from his mark of 80 here back on the turf and although Turf-A/W form doesn’t always translate I would be confident our lad has at least a similar amount of improvement in him from this turf mark.

The positives for MA are that he is 1 from 1 at the track, both his wins have come going left-handed, he should handle any change in the going if the forecast rain arrives and the Stoute yard are in a decent bit of form at present – 10/29 | 34% S/R in the past 2 weeks. The Stoute runners also do well from their limited raids to the track – 5/16 | 31% S/R in the past 5 seasons.

The negative for MA is potentially the draw. Stall 15 of 17 wouldn’t be ideal although admittedly the figures don’t say it is completely impossible and there haven’t been too many large field races over this trip at Warwick in recent seasons to make a strong assessment.

Digging into my Proform database I had a look at 6f races at Warwick with fields of 12 or more and looked at those in stalls 13+ as a group. The following figures were returned…

2/56 | 4% S/R – Win & Place 8/56 | 14% S/R

It is a concern rather than a worry I would say…

So do we back him or not? 

Personally if I can get 5’s or above then I will take it. The draw is a concern but he is an improving horse and he may just have a bit too much for some of these. James Doyle rode him for the first time last time out and hopefully he will have learned plenty about him that day and he will be able to keep him a bit closer to the pace here.

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)