Ladbrokes St Leger: Dosage & Trends Analysis

The final domestic Classic rumbles into action today at Town Moor on day 4 of the 2013 St Leger Festival with the lung bursting St Leger taking centre stage at 3.50.

I have a full Dosage & Trends guide available for you later on in the Blog for the big one but first I’ll give you my thoughts on yesterday’s BDH runner as well looking at today’s BDH qualifier and some Portland Handicap analysis.

Let’s start with yesterdays BDH runners…

YEEOOW – 4.25 Doncaster

Finished 3rd, each-way money secured, handled the ground, I’m happy. The field split into 2 groups which didn’t really help our lad but he gave plenty of indications that he is still improving and he very much stays on the list after this run.

I’m hopeful he can land something for us before the season is out.

Now onto today’s action…

BDH Runner: STEPS 2.40 Doncaster – Portland Handicap

Ahh Steps…Steps…Steps. He probably should have won last time out and he again finds himself climbing the weights without winning. He is now 11lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark and 17lbs higher than his last winning mark. It’s starting to concern me for sure.

I would also slightly prefer him over a bare 5f rather this 5 & 1/2f.

On the plus side he has ground with cut in it which is a huge positive and he has winning form at Doncaster.

His hold up style of running should also be a bonus in a race that looks to hold plenty of pace up front.

He has fired in 2 career best’s on the figures on his last 2 starts so there is reason to believe he can overcome this mark.

Despite a couple of small reservations I’m happy to pitch in with him here today. The Varian yard are in bouncing form and with enough juice in the price to get on each-way I’m happy to have our BDH warrior STEPS on our side.

As is usual the case in race of this stature I’m also looking for another runner to carry my money. Let’s start by looking at the pace chart to see how the race is likely to shape up…

Portland 2013

To be honest the pace map doesn’t give us a great deal of help. The signs are that there is pace from all over the track so from this angle I can see no clear advantage to top, middle or bottom.

I would expect the field to split into at least 2 groups, with each group having solid front-runners at the head of affairs.

My next stop would usually be a quick delve into the trends but personally I don’t think this is a great race for that approach. I could fire up some trends without any problem but from past experience it wouldn’t be the strongest from the trends angle.

Instead I’ve had a look at the field from a handicapping perspective and picked out a clutch of runners that I have marked up as ‘well-in’ on old form, whether that is old handicap form or indeed old graded form.

That gave me the following shortlist…

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER

OUR JONATHAN

ANGELS WILL FALL

ANGELS WILL FALL has never struck me as one to enjoy a large field and she has been really struggling of late so she gets punted from that list fairly readily.

The other 2 are much more interesting to me…

OUR JONATHAN finds himself slipping to a very handy mark indeed. 2 years ago he won the Ayr Gold Cup quite comfortably off a mark of 105, today he runs off  97. We know he handles ground with cut in it, we know he handles large fields and we know he is classy on his day. He has also run some decent races at Donny without actually winning so his 0 from 6 track figures are a lot better than they first seem. At the odds available he is worthy of consideration.

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER is one that is very much of interest to me. I’ll let you into a little secret; he almost made the BDH squad after his last start. That was last weekend at Ascot behind our boy Redvers in what was only his 3rd ever handicap start. That race was over 7f and he made a serious move to hit the front around 2f out, however, as soon as he got there he smashed into his stamina wall and back-peddled rapidly.

It’s easy to forget he was once rated as high as 116 after a close 2nd in the 2011 Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot. This year he has been tried over 8f (x3) & 7f (x4) and only once over 6f. Admittedly he did run a sound race in 5th over 7f at Glorious Goodwood in the Lennox Stakes but apart from that every sinew of him looks like it has been crying out for a return to 6f, if not 5f.

I’m not put off by the fact he only ran 7 days ago as his form figures when returning within a week read -12- and his form figures when returning within 2 weeks read -121115050- he clearly has no problem with a quick return.

We know he has the speed for this trip, we know he handles the ground and with jockey Natasha Easton taking off 5lbs we can be pretty confident the mark of 91 (taking the claim into account) makes him an interesting proposition.

I’ll take STEPS (BDH Qualifier) and MONSIEUR CHEVALIER (BDH almost squad member) as my 2 bets in this valuable sprint and I’ll ponder over whether to include OUR JONATHAN in calculations as well.

Ladbrokes St Leger full Dosage & Trends Analysis

We move from the sprinting division to the staying division with one fell swoop and put the St Leger under the full ‘Trosage’ microscope.

It doesn’t look the strongest St Leger in recent memory but someone has to win it and with it generally proving to be a strong race for both Dosage and Trends it was a no-brainer to give it a full and thorough seeing to.

The full analysis guide can be downloaded from the following link…

>>>Full BDH St Leger Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Best of luck if you are getting involved today.

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BDH Qualifier: “I feel good!”…

…hopefully we will be feeling good at the end of the day anyway!

We have another BDH warrior getting ready to do battle for us on day 3 of the St Leger meeting. Before I get onto that, however, a quick word on Thursdays runner…

THUNDERBALL – 4.25 Doncaster

Gaaagh that was a close one! To be honest I can’t knock the run at all, he was beaten a neck & a neck into 3rd and battled on all the way to the line. There was serious money flooding on to the horse all day but hopefully some of you got some sort of price. The race kinda fell apart throughout the day with 7 non-runners but at least the each-way money was secured with his 3rd placed finish.

THUNDERBALL stays on the BDH list and hopefully he can land us something soon, with the ground likely to be playing to his strengths until seasons end.

We also came agonizingly close with our handicap sleeper runner at Epsom. MY KINGDOM ran a blinding race in 2nd and at one stage it looked for all money that he would land us the spoils. Somehow and from somewhere Brocklebank sprouted wins from out the back and nailed our lad on the line. I’m pretty sure he picked up a discarded rocket-pack around the 1 furlong marker to fly home and scupper our celebrations!!

Still, I know plenty of you had an each-way double on the 2 runners so all was not lost at the end of the day.

Now onto today’s James Brown inspired BDH runner…

BDH Runner: YEEOOW 4.25 Doncaster (13-09-13)

This lad is probably the only 1 of our squad that has no real conditions applied to when and where we back him and as mentioned when I added him to our squad it is a case of taking him on a race by race basis.

First up there doesn’t appear to be anything else hugely well-handicapped in this contest so on the face of it the race doesn’t look too strong, obviously a bonus for us.

YEEOOW was actually dropped 1lb for his 6th place run at Goodwood last time out and considering that was his 2nd best career performance on the figures I’m more than happy with that outcome. This is only his 11th career turf start and with the 4yo only sitting 2lbs above his highest winning mark there is plenty in his recent runs to suggest he has improvement still in him.

The ground is an unknown for Yeeoow but I’ve haven’t seen anything to suggest he won’t act on it and until I see that visual evidence I’m happy to roll with it.

From the pace viewpoint with only 14 runners going to post there is no guarantee the field will split, I can see a situation where they stick as one group. The pace-setters look to be DUBAWI SOUND in stall 4, DR RED EYE in stall 5 and ELUSIVE FLAME in stall 14. YEEOOW is in stall 13 so he at least has a pace setter beside him and should, in theory, get a decent tow into the race.

The way things stand I’m happy to play YEEOOW here, there is enough juice in his price at the minute to play him each way and at the very least we should learn a bit more about our BDH squad member, hopefully he can land us some tasty profits in the process.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and I’ll leave you today with this classic (and damn funny!) James Brown clip…

Ben (BDH)