BDH Qualifier: Mission Approved or Mission Impossible?

 

Let’s hope it isn’t Mission ‘Impossible’ from stall 15…

A bit of mid-grade, mid-week action for us today with one of our BDH squad tackling the 6 furlong trip at Warwick…

BDH Runner: MISSION APPROVED 5.10 Warwick

We were very unlucky not to collect with him at Kempton last time out when he went down in a photo-finish by a head. That was a career best on the figures and his A/W mark was also put up 5lbs to 85 by the handicapper off the back of the run. He is able to run from his mark of 80 here back on the turf and although Turf-A/W form doesn’t always translate I would be confident our lad has at least a similar amount of improvement in him from this turf mark.

The positives for MA are that he is 1 from 1 at the track, both his wins have come going left-handed, he should handle any change in the going if the forecast rain arrives and the Stoute yard are in a decent bit of form at present – 10/29 | 34% S/R in the past 2 weeks. The Stoute runners also do well from their limited raids to the track – 5/16 | 31% S/R in the past 5 seasons.

The negative for MA is potentially the draw. Stall 15 of 17 wouldn’t be ideal although admittedly the figures don’t say it is completely impossible and there haven’t been too many large field races over this trip at Warwick in recent seasons to make a strong assessment.

Digging into my Proform database I had a look at 6f races at Warwick with fields of 12 or more and looked at those in stalls 13+ as a group. The following figures were returned…

2/56 | 4% S/R – Win & Place 8/56 | 14% S/R

It is a concern rather than a worry I would say…

So do we back him or not? 

Personally if I can get 5’s or above then I will take it. The draw is a concern but he is an improving horse and he may just have a bit too much for some of these. James Doyle rode him for the first time last time out and hopefully he will have learned plenty about him that day and he will be able to keep him a bit closer to the pace here.

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)

BDH Qualifier: Approved on an All-Weather Mission…

We make a first trip onto the all-weather with our BDH squad as one of our recent additions tackles the polytrack at Kempton’s evening meeting…

BDH Runner: MISSION APPROVED 8.45 Kempton (AW)

To be fair this wasn’t really the area I was hoping he would be tackling but we will roll with it.

He is back up to 6f for today’s assignment which should be perfectly fine and he has run well at the track on his only other visit; 2nd over 7f as a 2yo. He does have a victory on the Lingfield all-weather so as far as the underfoot surface goes I don’t think we have any worries.

On his last start at Sandown he finished a neck behind Dungannon and we all know what Dunny did on his next start! Joe Packet who finished 7th in that Sandown race came out and ran a decent 5th at Doncaster last week and ran to a mark of 91 (on RPR figures) so the early signs are that the Sandown race is working out quite well from a form perspective.

This race signifies a small drop in class for our lad and as I think there is still plenty improvement to come I would be disappointed if he doesn’t get involved in the finish of this race. At around 4-1 I’m happy to back him. Hopefully he wins this then they go looking for a turf ‘mission’ before the season is out.

NTF Analysis

The Kerry National takes place today at Listowel and I have a full Dosage & Trends breakdown of the race over on NTF…

>>>Kerry National Analysis available on NTF

Best of luck if you get involved today

Ben (BDH)

I don’t wanna dance + New BDH recruit…

I don’t feel like dancing…

Life is difficult at times. We all know that, we all accept that. Finding winners on the gee-gees is also pretty difficult. We all know that, we all accept that as well. So when a horse with latent ability starts making life difficult for himself and in turn making life frustrating for his supporters…it is safe to say we have every right to question our support of said beast.

Yes Dance And Dance I am talking about YOU!!

I’ve watched his run in Sunday’s Cambridgeshire a few times now and every time I’m left with the notion that there is so much left in his tank at the finish, sooooo much! I know I’m not the only one that has been seduced by his performances, he has started to become the master of seduction in recent runs. However, there has to be a time when we say enough is enough, I’m not falling for your ways any more, I’m fed up throwing a portion of my hard-earned cash on you for little to no return, only getting a faint buzz at the end of your races when you start teasing us all with what might have been and would could be in the future.

Sometimes you have to take a stance against these beasts and I’m taking one now. Dance And Dance you are OFF the BDH list. I don’t need time wasters and attention seekers in our squad. We have worked damn hard over the summer and I’m not in the mood to let you spoil the party!

I’m sure Dance And Dance will win again at some stage, if it happens to be next time out I’ll live with it (maybe!), but as far as being a member of our cherished BDH attack force I’m afraid to say (perhaps happy to say!) that your time is up, bye bye.

Not wanting to be overly light with our attack line I myself got involved in transfer deadline day yesterday and after shifting Dance And Dance out of the squad (someone else can deal with the wayward star!) I managed to secure the services of a youngster who I hope can land us something before the season is out…

BDH Review…

Race in focus: 2.05 Sandown (31-08-2013): BETFRED GOALS GALORE HANDICAP – 5f, Class 3 Handicap (14 ran)

How the race played out…

Sandown 31-08

With the 1st & 2nd coming from stalls 2 & 3 it is safe to say that it was an advantage to be drawn low; I’m pretty much coming round to the notion that this is where it pays to be in these tricky Sandown sprints. ASK THE GURU absolutely blitzed out of the gates in stall 1 and that gave a perfect target for BURNING THREAD & TIDAL’S BABY to aim at. The potential front runners from up high, SWENDAB & FRATELLINO, couldn’t get their preferred spot and this again helped it become a low drawn affair. The majority from up high had to switch behind early and this caused plenty of bunching on the far side and middle of the track. ASK THE GURU set a strong pace out front but couldn’t hold it in the final furlong and that gave a perfect slipstream for the eventual first 2 home to sweep past and strike.

There were a few hard-luck stories in-behind with the next 3 home SIR MAXIMILLIAN, DUNGANNON & MISSION APPROVED all meeting some sort of trouble at some stage of the contest.

The end result…

The winner BURNING THREAD was in the prime spot behind the pace setting Ask The Guru and he duly obliged. With retrospect he was well in on old form, had his ground and had previously won over course & distance. Depending on what the handicapper does he may still be able to squeeze out another win before reaching his ceiling again. 2nd home TIDAL’S BABY essentially just couldn’t match the winner and it may just be that he has enough weight for now. This was, however, his 2nd best RPR figure so that’s not conclusive by any means. 3rd home SIR MAXIMILLIAN ran a sound race given that he met trouble in-running and had an average draw. For all this was a solid run he is showing signs that he is held off his current mark. We know all about DUNGANNON in 4th and he was probably slightly more hampered than Sir Maximillian, having to switch numerous time to try and get a run. There was plenty to like about this run and he is still running at a consistent enough level, his time will come. 5th home MISSION APPROVED had the worst draw of all as he was parked widest of the field in the outside box. Moore tracked him across as soon as he could but he had to wait for gaps (on more than 1 occasion) and when they did appear the race was all but over.

BDH to follow…

MISSION APPROVED (5th) (Sir M Stoute)

Having his first run since being gelded and also dropping back to 5f for the first time in his 7 race career, this Dansili 3yo did extremely well to finish only 4 and a bit lengths behind the winner. Ryan Moore had to switch early and bide his time but the gaps just didn’t come in time for him.

He looks a powerful sprinting type as he traveled with plenty of gusto out the back and looks well suited to this drop down in trip. He impressed me with the way he quite easily consented to ghost through the gaps when they did appear and he closed in on the pack with minimal effort when asked by his pilot.

His rating of 80 looks extremely workable, especially when we consider that was gained over 7 & 8f trips. It should also be noted that he recorded his best Proform speed figure to date in this race, by quite some way in fact; another sign that this drop in trip brought about improvement from a potentially very lenient mark.

We don’t have a great deal to go on with regards to preferences as this was only his 7th career start (5th on turf) but his only turf victory to date (has won on the A/W) was gained off Soft ground at Warwick last October and it could be we see more improvement once the ground eases in the final couple of months of the season.

Conditions – As mentioned already we don’t have a great deal to work with although he looks for all the world like a sprinter to me and I am looking for him to be back over the 5f trip, possibly even 6f. Ground he seems adaptable with although ground with cut in it may just be more of a help.

MISSION APPROVED now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. I have a free guide available to all members of the FREE service. It concerns an angle that I follow that can generate huge priced winners! If you are not on the Free service then you can’t get the guide. You can join and pick up numerous free guides at the following page >>> Join the BDH/NTF community

Today I’ll leave you with the immortal words of Mr Eddy Grant…

BDH Sunday Runner: D&D aiming for an Irish Jig?

Hopefully D&D will have the luck of the Irish!

We make a very rare foray across the Irish Sea for a BDH qualifier today, with one of our squad taking to the track in the Irish Cambridgeshire at Curragh.

Before that, however, just a few thoughts on Yesterday’s runners…

DUNGANNON – 205 Sandown

An each-way bet was suggested and he finished a fine and dandy…4th! Would have been fine if the full 16 had gone to post…but they didn’t, we had 2 non-runners. The race pace played out a bit muddling, didn’t really suit our lad and the gaps did not appear when needed. That’s racing, however, and there are no excuses here.

I’m still not convinced by the Sandown draw but it could be argued that Dunny ran well again from a poor draw…

THUNDERBALL – 255 Chester

He was a no bet for us anyway as he pretty much had nothing in his favour here and as predicted he ran like it. Hopefully, however, it will give us a massive price next time out, if of course he fits our criteria.

Now onto today’s BDH qualifier…

Sunday BDH Runner: DANCE AND DANCE – 445 Curragh

To be fair I wasn’t really expecting him to appear in Ireland but kudos for connection for looking a bit further afield in their bid to get him back in the winners enclosure.

The return to 1 mile is a positive move for me, in my opinion that’s where he is most effective at these days.

Ryan Moore back in the plate is also a huge bonus. His record on D&D is a rather fetching 12240. Moore also has a solid record at the track with 9 wins from 31 for a 29% S/R.

He runs well when returning after a break of 15 days or less and has proven in the past that he runs very well in large fields.

It’s a tough race to try and win, with more than a few unexposed sorts going into battle, but back at a mile and with Moore in the saddle I’m happy to pitch in again on D&D.

I’ll be honest though we can’t keep giving D&D that many more chances, his days may well be numbered as a fully paid up member of the BDH squad…

Ben (BDH)

 

BDH Saturday runners: Dunny ready to do the business?

Google tells me this scary little fella is also called Dunny!?

Two of our BDH squad take to the field on Saturday so no time for any wiffle-waffle, lets get stuck into my thoughts on them both…

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON – 205 Sandown

Fist things first we have him back on the track within that all important 28 day window; 17 days since his last start will do just dandy.

Back down at 5 furlongs is also a good move in my opinion; that will do just fine for me as well.

Ground should be OK and track configuration should also be within the ballpark.

Draw, however, I have a wee question mark. I don’t think middle is ideal in large fields at Sandown over the 5f. To be honest I think straight track blitzes at Sandown are tricky, they don’t always play out how I expect them to. However, lets take it that this one will play out like normal I have the pace coming from the high stalls (boxes 12 & 13) and that should, hopefully, play to the hands of our boy DUNGANNON.

At the projected 10-1 odds I’ll have a bit of him each-way. He is well handicapped and is returning within the correct time-frame; it’s time for Dunny to do the business for us!

BDH Runner: THUNDERBALL- 255 Chester

In my own words…

“Essentially we are looking for 6 furlongs and soft” – Here we have 7 and 1/2 furlongs and Good!

“He is yet to prove he is up to winning a really valuable contest (20k+) but if he gets his conditions it would not be hard to see him running well in such a race” – This is worth 28k to the winner and he doesn’t look to have conditions!

“4 of his 5 turf wins have come on a straight track and although that condition isn’t a necessity it probably is preferable” – This is round the tight Left-Handed Chester track!

His stall draw would be average as well.

Yeah I think I will leave him here to be honest!!

If he somehow wins this you will probably hear my yells of “How the F**K did he win that” from wherever you are in the universe!!

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

FREE BDH Handicap Sleepers Guide

Hopefully you all managed to download the free guide I sent out yesterday. If you haven’t yet then find yesterday’s email that I sent out and grab the guide now, it’s well worth your time (if I don’t say so myself).

As you will have noticed there were 2 qualifiers from the guide running on Friday but neither of them were running under preferred conditions (so no bet). Both soundly beaten as well so an even bigger and better price on offer (hopefully!) when they do meet their ideal conditions next time.

If you want to grab this in-depth and FREE guide (all 21 pages of it!!) then head to the following page and pop your details into the sign-up form…

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Cheers – Ben (BDH)

BDH Sandown Review: Gannon’s not Dun yet….

An interesting couple of days for us over the weekend and before I crack into the review of the 5f sprint at Sandown from Friday I just want to tidy up a few loose ends.

Starting with…

DOCTOR PARKES

As far as his role as a BDH runner is concerned it’s job done and thank you very much. On Friday he was very much a ‘well drawn horse’ and he rewarded us all at some very tasty prices. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does but for the purposes of this here blog he happily moves off the BDH list. Good job Doc.

DUKE OF FIRENZE

I think what Duke of Firenze (I’m going to call him DOF from now on!) confirmed to me on Saturday was that he needs the big fields to produce his best. Small fields tend to congregate and cluster up into 1 group, causing plenty of traffic jams for hold-up runners, such as DOF. In large field races the runners tend to fan out at the end of the race and gaps appear between runners as the petrol gauge starts to flicker on empty, gaps that Duke of Firenze obviously loves coming through in the closing stages. When the runners are spread across the track they naturally open up and fan out as the energy levels drop in the closing stages, this is where I feel Duke Of Firenze can be seen at his best.

He certainly met plenty trouble in-running on Saturday and he was hindered at least twice when looking to make forward moves. As mentioned this is more likely to happen in small fields when they cluster up so as frustrating as it is, it also isn’t surprising.

For now he remains on the BDH list.

Now onto the meat of today’s post…

Race in focus: 2.20 Sandown (05-07-2013) – LONDON’S RACE TRACKS RACINGANDMUSIC.CO.UK HANDICAP (Class 3 Handicap) 5f (14ran)

How the race played out…

Doctor Parkes Sandown Race 05-07

As is generally the case with sprints at Sandown it is the runners drawn low and up with the pace that come out on top and it was no different in this contest. There was some fine analysis pre-race on Racing UK by Eddie ‘the shoe’ Fremantle about the effect of the draw at Sandown over the 5f trip, where he pointed out the advantage of being drawn in the low stalls. He himself had walked the track before the race and stated that there was a distinct advantage, in his opinion, to those drawn low. That was purely from him having walked the track and tested the underfoot conditions himself. As it turns out he was spot on and it was also something I had indicated in my Blog post on Friday. It is very much something to keep in mind when punting in these types of races at Sandown although obviously the bias is somewhat negated in the smaller fields (7 or less runners).

The pace map tells us that the pace was set by FAIR VALUE in the 6 box and he tracked across to the far rail early on. DOCTOR PARKES got a good break from the 2 box and that allowed jockey Neil Callan to position him just where he wanted him, something that proved pivotal in his victory. JOE PACKET didn’t break quite as well and he was maybe just a quarter step behind where he wanted to be for most of the race, nevertheless he was still in a decent posi compared to some. Possibly the most interesting aspect of the pace was the fact that the top 5 stalls (boxes 10-15) all made the early decision to switch in behind the pack and run held-up. That isn’t too unexpected as they all generally run that way anyway but in truth it was also their only real option from their unfavorable draws. Unfortunately it was also a moved that severely compromised their chances. Of the 5 of them the smartest riding came from Thomas Brown on STEPS who kept his mount on the outer of the main group, leaving him room to try and bullet home late with an unblocked passage (ooh er missus!). He did, however, have the ‘best’ of the wide draws and was in a prime slot to make that decision.

The end result…

The winner DOCTOR PARKES was well drawn, in the prime position throughout and took full advantage. This was a good performance and he won fairly readily in the end. He will possibly now be pushing on to a mark that he will start to struggle with, as always it will be interesting to see the handicappers reaction. Second placed JOE PACKET possibly didn’t get the best start and had to fight his way back into it a bit but it was a solid run and there is every suggestion that he can win from this mark. He may just be better suited to being stepped back up to 6f. Third placed STEPS ran a very sound race from out wide, he was one that didn’t have a great draw but the fact he stayed wide probably benefited him as he had a clear passage to the line. He is running from a career high mark at the minute but still remains competitive, it is a close call whether the handicapper has him in his grip or not; personally I would like to see him dropped just a couple of lbs. FAIR VALUE gave it fair effort from the front but just couldn’t keep the closer’s at bay and faded slightly in the final yards into fourth. His recent runs suggest he could well pick a race up from this mark though and an easy 5f is probably his best option. Fifth place TAAJUB didn’t really take advantage of his good draw and found trouble by being held up. He is another that suggests he could win from his current mark. As previously mentioned it’s hard to win from out the back and out wide over Sandown’s flying 5 furlongs so for that reason I would be willing to crank up DUNGANNON’s 6th placed run a notch or 2. It was an extremely difficult draw to win from and he did well to get so close and he did motor home once the gaps appeared; to only finish 2.5 lengths in arrears was a fine effort.

BDH(s) to follow…

DUNGANNON (6th) (A Balding)

This 6yo gelding put in some decent late work once the gaps appeared and whilst his finishing position probably doesn’t fully justify his effort it should be enough to keep him under the radar of most punters.

Possibly the most interesting angle with this horse is his current handicap mark of 88. That is a full 7lbs lower than his last winning mark and 2lbs lower than his 2nd highest winning mark. If we also consider the fact that he has run well from marks as high as 99 & 97 then it isn’t hard to make the assumption that he is currently sitting on a pretty handy mark.

It’s also interesting to note that all his wins have come when returning within 28 days or less of his last run (on Friday it was 32 days since his last run)…

Form when returning within 28 days of last run – 010061013571

Form when returning after a break of 29 days+ – 569252678055

He doesn’t necessarily run ‘poorly’ after longer breaks but the fact all his wins have come off shorter breaks suggests that ideally we want him on the track within a month.

He looks fairly adaptable when it comes to ground and to a certain extent distance (winning form over 5f, 6f & 7f) so his options should be open enough with regards to future targets. His handicap mark is clearly the most interesting aspect about him and I would be surprised if he can’t take advantage of it very soon, especially off the back of his run at Sandown last Friday.

Conditions – Ideally we are wanting him back on the track within the month, the 28 day window looks his optimum and there should be plenty of targets for him to be aimed at. He has winning form over 7f but personally I think 5f or 6f would be the ideal trips for him, again there should be plenty of openings for him within the next few weeks.

DUNGANNON now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

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Ben (BDH)

BDH Update: Is the Duke ready to Fire?

Will Ryan Moore find the gaps?

Another quick update for you today guys as another BDH runner heads into battle.

First of all though a big thanks for all the comments regarding Doctor Parkes’ win yesterday. Fantastic to see so many of you on board and collecting the spoils.

Now onto today’s task in hand…

BDH runner: 2:05 Sandown – DUKE OF FIRENZE

Ahh the Duke… what to do with the Duke…

I must say it’s not as straight forward a task as the good doctor yesterday. I did mention in my notes that I think he is a graded beast…and this is a graded contest…however, I was thinking more along the lines of the big 16+ runner sprints such as the July Cup and races of such ilk. An 8 runner contest at Sandown poses a slightly different conundrum.

For starters we know he needs a strong pace to come hard and fast off the back of, so lets look at the pace map and see if there is potential for plenty of speed….

Sandown Sprint Stakes

That does give us a bit of hope. Three potential front-runners and 2 others sitting in-behind suggests there may well be plenty of pace on the go here.

My main concern really is that a flying 5 furlongs at Sandown generally plays to the hands of those up with the pace or making the pace, the ones coming from behind can often come unstuck (the stats do back this up).

I’m very much in 2 minds about how this race will suit Duke Of Firenze. On one hand he has a good draw and should get a decent pace to aim at but on the other hand it is not a track that really suits horses flying hard and fast from out the back…hmmm…

My thought is to take a punt on him at around the 6-1 mark but at reduced stakes. Now I generally don’t play about with my stakes unless the situation really suggest that I do… today the situation suggests I reduce my stakes!

I think there will be better opportunities for this lad as the season progresses but there is the potential for the race to fall into his lap, especially if the 3 potential pace-setters go hammer and tong at it up front, and as such I want a bit on him in case that situation does arise, especially as we can get around 6-1 on the exchanges and with a couple of other firms.

Am I as confident as I was about Doctor Parkes? Not at all. Do I think there is more to come from this horse? Most certainly. Will he get the fast pace needed? I’m hopeful.

At the very least today will be a good test for him and hopefully a decent indicator of does he just have another valuable handicap in him or whether he can indeed take the step up the ladder to Graded level….

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)

 

BDH Update: The Doctor’s on call at Sandown…

Time for the Doctor to strut his stuff!

Quick post today guys as we have one BDH runner going to war for us…

BDH runner: 2:20 Sandown – DOCTOR PARKES

The 7yo is making a relatively quick return from his Chester run last Saturday but in fairness jockey Harry Bentley eased up a touch on him in the final furlong and he didn’t really have an overly hard race that day.

He should get his ground at Sandown today as the going is currently described as Good and a quick look at the weather forecast tells me it is set fair for the day, in fact it looks like the sun will be out in all his glory. Providing that weather forecast is correct (!?!) then I would expect the ground to firm up rather than soften down, which is ideal for the Doctor. He has a prime draw in the 2 box (actually the hottest box over this trip at Sandown in these fields sizes), is on a decent mark, is racing over his preferred 5f and the yard are hitting form. He is also currently available at an each-way price, if you are that way inclined.

There are enough boxes ticked here for me to get involved although, as always, I will be keeping a close eye on the weather to make sure there is no unexpected rain coming in to spoil the day.

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)