Darley July Cup: Dosage & Trends Analysis

A couple of races of interest for us tomorrow (Saturday) at Newmarket on the July course.

The highlight on a busy days racing is the Darley July Cup at Newmarket and that gives us an opportunity to open up the Dosage & Trends analyzer and fire the race through the ‘Trosage’ machine (I just made that up, I’ll see if it catches on…). Also at Newmarket we have a dual BDH assault on the ever tricky and competitive 32Red Bunbury Cup.

So lets crack on…

Bunbury Cup… 

We get 2 bites at the Bunbury cherry with both REDVERS and FIELD OF DREAM going to war for us from the BDH list.

The pace angle in this race doesn’t look too obvious but the pace map just suggests, and I would very much emphasis the just, that it may be the middle to high stalls that have an advantage. Both our warriors are drawn high so it may well be a good thing that we have both our eggs in one basket, however, Field Of Dream is stuck in the 20 box and that would make life very difficult should the pace actually end up low..

Here is the Bunbury Cup pace map for your perusal….

2013 Bunbury Cup

As you can see there really isn’t that much in the way of out and out front-runners here so it is a bit of a guessing game with regards to the pace, I guess there is every chance our 2 are caught on the wrong side of it, although hopefully not and my initial assessment of a high pace bias is correct.

I also had a look at the trends for this race but in my opinion it isn’t really a strong race for the angle and not one that I would personally get stuck into in that regard. However, I did in the end plump with the following 4 to give us just another little angle into the race…

15/16 had at least 1 previous victory over 6f

14/16 ran over 7f or 8f LTO

12/16 had only 1 start in the past 30 days

10/16 were (IRE) bred

That does actually cut the race down a fair bit and of the clutch that are left REDVERS is one of them. FIELD OF DREAM only fails on 1 of them so I’m not overly concerned on that score.

Both look to have conditions in their favour and at the prices – FIELD OF DREAM 11-1, REDVERS 14/1 – I’m happy to have them both on my side.

Even if they don’t fire today they won’t be dropping off the to follow list, there is every chance it will be a messy race, especially as there seems to be no clear cut pace angle.

Now onto the big race of the day; The Darley July Cup.

Darley July Cup Analysis…

It looks an enthralling renewal of this Group 1 and they are sure to scorch down the 6f track in the lightning fast conditions.

The analysis for this race does a fine job of cutting the field into a manageable chunk so hopefully the winner is on the shortlist…

>>>Free Darley July Cup Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

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Ben (BDH)

2:55 Newmarket (08-06-13) – BETFAIR HANDICAP – 6f, Class 2 (14 Ran)

There were a couple of races I was contemplating reviewing on here today but on closer inspection this was the one that gives the most grist to my mill…

Race in focus: 2.55 Newmarket (08-06-2013): Betfair Handicap – 6f, Class 2 (14 ran)

How the race played out…

Newmarket 08-06-13

As you can see from the pace map it was Whozthecat who set most of the pace from stall 6 along with Zero Money from stall 5, in essence this perfectly set the race up for the front 2 in the market Nocturn & Enrol, who did indeed fill 1st & 2nd on the podium. The majority of the field bunched up on the near side and that very much benefited the low numbers, again playing to the hooves of the front 2. Doctor Parkes was the only runner to not really join the others. He was drawn widest of all in stall 15 and had to cut out his running on his own. Doctor Parkes is a hold up/close to pace horse who simply had no cover here and he found himself all alone with no option but to make his own pace.

The end result…

As already mentioned the race very much played to the hands of the front 2 in the market, Enrol & Nocturn, and they were in the prime spot to take advantage of the pace unfolding right in front of them. From a pace angle Doctor Parkes was clearly the most inconvenienced  from the highest stall (15) and the old boy Johannes also had a bit of a job to do from the next stall down (14), both of them I would probably mark up a couple of lbs. Third placed Mezzotint did meet a bit of trouble in-running so his final placing is also noteworthy from stall 11.

BDH(s) to follow…

DOCTOR PARKES (5th) (S Williams)

There is a lot to like about this run from the 7yo who is essentially a hold up/close to pace horse who simply had no cover in this contest and was forced to cut out his own running, mostly away from the rest of the field. He is far from a natural front-runner – in fact I can only find one other instance in his 39 career starts where he led – so this effort , where he was running in a position he clearly isn’t familiar with, needs to be marked up at least a couple of lbs. He only really faded in the final 50 or so yards and there is no shame in that as he looks a much better beast over shorter…

Record over 5f = 5 wins from 25 starts (20% S/R)

Record over 5 1/2f & 6f = 1 win from 14 starts (7% S/R)

He currently sits on a handy handicap mark of OR85 and he has won in the past off OR89 & OR84; it is a fair assumption to make that he has the ability to score off his current OR. He loves to hear his hooves rattle with his 5 turf victories coming on GOOD (x1), GOOD TO FIRM (x2) & FIRM (x1), the current ground conditions are right up his street. On Saturday he also recorded a Proform speed figure that sits just 1lb below his best, another firm indicator that he is on the cusp of striking gold.

In short, he is running near his best on a mark he can win from on ground that he loves; there is a lot to like about both his run at Newmarket on Saturday and his current profile.

Conditions – Ground conditions look important and we don’t really want to be backing him on anything less than GOOD with GOOD TO FIRM or better probably being ideal. A drop back down to 5f is also what we want to see as that looks his optimum. If he were to run back at 6f then it would need to be a flatter track than Newmarket with little to no incline to the finishing post, ideally though it will be 5f where he is campaigned at in his next few starts. He is handicapped to win a race and given a better draw than he was here he can find his way back to the winners enclosure. 

DOCTOR PARKES now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool (horse tracker in other words) and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

FREE BDH Guide…

Before I leave today I just want to tell you about a brilliant FREE guide I have made available for you. It concentrates on a VERY SIMPLE mini-angle that I personally utilize and you can also profit from it by signing up to the FREE list (if you are already on the FREE NTF/BDH list then you should already have the link in today’s email). This excellent mini angle has pulled in a steady +£127.65 BFLSP in recent seasons and is on track for another profitable season again this year. To grab the guide simply head here and fill in your details

Many thanks for joining me here on the latest BDH post and I leave you with another from the ‘badly in need of a wash’ Manc indie kid…

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Ben (BDH)