BDH Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe – Full Analysis Guide

Sea The Stars bursts clear in the 2009 renewal. (Picture taken by Mrs NTF!)

The Arc De Triomphe. Arguably the greatest flat race in the world. It gets my vote anyway! With that in mind it would be rude of me not to put the race under full and unadulterated BDH scrutiny.

Before that, however, just a wee line on our BDH qualifier at Ascot, DINKUM DIAMOND…

BDH Saturday runner: DINKUM DIAMOND (Ascot)

He was a no bet anyway but I always like to keep a close eye on our squad even when the money isn’t down.

I thought he ran well in 5th without ever really threatening the places. The ground was upgraded to Good to Soft from Soft so conditions would not have been as bad for him as they were predicted to be. If we can get him on Good or better before the season is out (Good to Firm still the preferable option) then I will be happy.

As for the winner of the race (breath…5, 6, 7, 8…) I think the less said about him the better! He obviously felt the pressure of running with the BDH cash down in previous runs but once unleashed from our shackles he was free to get a photo-finish in his favour. Frustrating but racing has a habit of doing that sometimes…

2013 Arc De Triomphe Analysis…

Before I get onto the analysis of this years renewal I have a wee poll for you all…

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Now onto the serious stuff…

From a personal perspective I was all set to pull the trigger on NOVELLIST. He ticked most of the boxes in my guide and had clearly been primed for this race since his King George romp at Ascot back in July. I was ready to put the money down and highlight him as the main selection in the BDH guide… Alas, it was not to be. Turns out he ate some dodgy snails, or some of that horrible Pâté they serve over there and has been declared unfit to race (fever/temperature is the official line).

For me then it was back to the drawing board to sift through the remainder of the field to look for the most likely winner and an alternative selection for a two-pronged BDH attack on France’s showpiece contest.

All the usual in-depth BDH analysis for the 2013 renewal of the Pric De L’Arc De Triomphe can be downloaded from the link below…

>>>Full BDH Arc De Triomphe Analysis Guide

Remember there is plenty of information in the guide so you don’t just have to follow my selections if you don’t want to.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and let’s hope for a cracking race!

FREE NTF Guides…

I am in the process of pulling together 2 new and FREE NTF guides for the forthcoming National Hunt season.

One is a Scottish themed micro-system (VERY easy to use) and the other is my own ‘to follow list’ for the forthcoming season. It will be slightly different to the ones that are already floating about out there and will include quite a few ‘dark horses’ that probably won’t appear on other lists.

These FREE guides will be EXCLUSIVE to members of my FREE NTF list so if you want them you need to join at the following link…

>>>Join the FREE NTF list and get yourself prepared for the 2013/14 NH season!

Happy Punting

Ben (BDH)

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BDH Saturday Qualifier: Dinkum done by the downpour?

Diamond in the rough?!?

One BDH qualifier for us on Saturday but is the ground playing for or against us at Ascot?

Before I get on to that though we have a wee bit of house keeping for our midweek BDH runner…

Thursday BDH runner – MISSION APPROVED (Warwick)

Another placed effort for the squad, this time a 3rd placed 1 length defeat at BFSP 7.4. I think we were a smidgen unlucky here as James Doyle had to get across early from the wide draw and that may have just left him a tad short for his finishing effort. MA was in the lead entering the final furlong but he just couldn’t sustain the effort all the way to the line. I was half banking on a decent amount of rain falling by the time our race was off (my original post on Mission Approved stated that ground with cut in it would help) but it just didn’t come in enough buckets to properly change the ground; when you need the rain it doesn’t come and when you don’t want it (like when you are walking the dogs!) it comes down in buckets!

Anyway I’m not overly disappointed with this run, it was a tough (although not impossible) draw to overcome but this was a decent effort. He has now run twice for us and been beaten a head and a length and I’m still happy to keep him in the squad for now. Hopefully he will get ground with a bit of cut in it sooner rather than later…

Now onto Saturday’s qualifier…

BDH Runner: DINKUM DIAMOND 1.30 Ascot

Ascot is currently SOFT so that quite simply means NO BET for us. We want Good to Firm or at the least Good but Soft is a no go. If he somehow wins on the Soft stuff then the world will have dropped off it’s axis!

DD has run 3 times for us since making the squad. We managed to grab some nice E/W profits when he ran on the Good to Firm at Ascot (3rd at 22-1, was 33’s in the morning), he got a troubled passage in the Stewards Cup next time out and then the ground went against him/us at York and he was a no-bet.

There will be others much more suited to the underfoot conditions in this race and I’ll happily leave him alone in this Listed contest. We may indeed struggle to get him on his favoured conditions now before this season is out…

Arc De Triomphe – Sunday

I am neck-deep in National Hunt stuff at the minute but I have taken time out to put Sunday’s big race at Longchamp under the ‘Trosage’ microscope and I will have a full and free BDH analysis guide ready for you to download here on the Blog.

To make sure you don’t miss out on this free and alternative guide for one of the worlds most famous and prestigious races simply join the NTF/BDH FREE list, where you will also be able to download a clutch of free racing guides and mini-angles…

>>>Join the FREE NTF/BDH list today

Ben (BDH/NTF)

Rocking to the Knavesmire Beat with an early Ebor fancy …

Is Tropical ready to Beat all-comers in the Ebor?

The 2013 York Ebor Festival rumbles into action on the Knavesmire next week and I’ll be covering a handful of the races here on the BDH Blog for your punting delights.

The highlight of the week is the Ebor itself, run on the Saturday over the stamina testing 1m6f trip. I know it’s not a straight track blitz race but it does provide some strong race trends and is a race I like getting my teeth into.

There is still a mass of entries in the valuable handicap and although I’m not a huge ante-post player (not by any stretch of the imagination) I do like taking an early look at some of the major races and, at the very least, getting my eye in on who is most likely to fit the trends.

With over a week until the tapes go up for the contest we obviously don’t yet know the draw, what the ground will be like and the pace angle (as in how the race is likely to shape up). It should also be noted that on the wider trends front there will be some horses that won’t qualify if we did the trends now but may well qualify when the trends are applied once the final field is know. Nevertheless I have taken 5 of the strongest Ebor trends from my own research and applied them to the current entries to see if anything stands out at us.

The trends I have used are…

15/15 had an OR of 102 & below

14/15 finished in the top 2 on 1 of their last 3 starts

13/15 were aged 3, 4 or 5 (other 2 were 6yo)

13/15 were (IRE) or (GB) bred

12/15 ran within the past 26 days

Surprisingly that chops the huge field down into only the following 10 ‘contenders’…

Montaser | Tropical Beat | Plinth | Duke Of Clarence | Clowance Estate | Noble Silk | Renew | Homeric | Arch Villain | Party Line

From that motley crew the one that interests me the most is the David O’Meara trained TROPICAL BEAT.

He runs off a mark of 97 here (officially 2lbs ‘well in’) and after only 11 turf starts there is plenty reason to believe he has improvement still to come. His last run at Musselburgh was his first of the season and also his first for O’Meara and it isn’t hard to think that he will come on plenty for the outing.

He has placed form at the track and over the trip, looks fairly adaptable with regards to ground (yet to face softer than Good to Soft admittedly) and handles large fields.

He has form lines that tie in with some decent animals and with the Musselburgh race likely to have gotten him cherry ripe for this he looks a value proposition at this stage. Oh yeah, his Dosage figures also sit kindly with previous winners as well.

Things may well change dramatically once I apply the full might of the BDH ‘Trosage’ machine but for now I’m pretty keen on the chances of TROPICAL BEAT.

A general 25/1 looks a fair price at this stage.

Resumption of NTF…

Yes it’s that time of the year again. The time of the year where the National Hunt big guns will be filing back into their respective National Hunt yards ready to resume full training, or at least starting to shed the summer poundage they may have accumulated over the last few months.

That also means that NTF will be starting to rev it’s engines and getting ready to burst out of it’s summer slumber!

I’ve already got an excellent guest blogger lined up for you for the start of next month and I’ll also be supplying the members of the FREE NTF list with a sprinkling of FREE NTF guides to get their National Hunt juices well and truly flowing.

If you are already a member of the free NTF service then you need do nothing more. If you’re not and you want to grab the free guides when they are ready then a quick sign up at the following page – www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/free-ntf-guides-and-e-books – is all it takes.

I can almost see that Cheltenham hill appearing on the horizon, almost…

Ben (BDH/NTF)