BDH Arc De Triomphe Review + NTF Subscription News…

Treve. The new wonder-filly!

Wow! That was some performance from Treve wasn’t it? She blew the others away in scintillating fashion and is rightly receiving plaudits left, right and centre.

As always I like to give a run over my own figures once the dust has settled and despite not personally lumping on the winner I can’t complain with the performance of my shortlist…

BDH Arc Shortlist

(*TS=Trends Score)

TREVE – TS 17/19 – Winner at 48/10

LEADING LIGHT – TS 17/19 – 12th at 14-1

NOVELLIST – 17/19

INTELLO – TS 16/19 – 3rd at 10-1

RULER OF THE WORLD – TS 16/19 – 7th at 12-1

FLINTSHIRE – TS 16/19 – 8th at 20-1

That is a decent performance in my eyes and a fine example of how my Trends & Dosage combined figures work to create strong short-lists.

I personally only got a return on the Each-Way part of my Intello bet but the figures held up well and that is always a positive sign.

To be fair the figures have been spot on most of the summer, through from Address Unknown in the Chester Cup, to Talent in the Oaks and yesterday with Treve in the Arc. Those 3 were notable highlights for me in a different way. I personally didn’t back them but I know that a number of you did by using my own shortlist to form your own selections. I very much consider myself an analyst rather than a tipster so the fact you guys are able to use my in-depth work to come to your own conclusions makes me equally as happy as backing a winner myself.

Anyway, I digress, back to the Arc.

TREVE was simply outstanding. Hopefully she returns to defend her crown next year. It will take an almighty performance to win 2 Arc’s on the bounce but after that run it wouldn’t really be a surprise! She is very exciting if kept in training.

ORFEVRE ran a sound race to finish 2nd again and not much needs said about him to be fair; he ran like the horse we know he is. I would be surprised if he can go 1 better next year and it is more likely that he joins Youmzain as a triple Arc runner-up.

I thought INTELLO ran a fine race at his first try at the trip and I have no doubt he stays it. It may not be his best trip though as he is a strong traveler and may just be better coming off a strong pace over 1m2f. Word is he may well go off to stud now so, unfortunately, that may be it for him anyway.

AL KAZEEM ran a sound race in 6th and although not matching what he has done so far this season it was a decent effort under conditions that didn’t really suit.

RULER OF THE WORLD is the puzzler for me. He was in the thick of the action until turning for home when all of a sudden he found himself dropping almost to the back…then he picked up, flew home and finished 7th! Could it be he doesn’t like to be crowded in amongst horses? He doesn’t look the biggest of 3yo’s and things did get a bit rough turning for home with horses making challenges all around him. If we think back to when he landed the spoils for us in the Epsom Derby he made his move round the outside that day and had relative space to unleash his challenge. This was the largest field he has faced and after that I’m just inclined to think he maybe needs space to perform to his best and doesn’t thrive on being amongst runners. I guess his Prix Niel run would counteract that argument but it wasn’t quite as rough a race and there were less runners. Whatever the case he is a very interesting horse for next year (if kept in training) but I will be keeping an eye on that roughshod theory of mine!

I thought FLINTSHIRE did well enough in 8th on ground that really would not have suited and he is another that is of maximum interest next season, especially when racing on less testing ground. I have a feeling there is more to come from him as a 4yo.

All in all it was a thoroughly enjoyable race to watch and it was won by a filly who produced a performance right out of the top drawer. Can she land 2 Arc’s on the trot though? That is the million dollar question…

NTF National Hunt Service

I know plenty of you are itching to get on with the jumping stuff so here is the good news…

Doors to my 2013/14 National Hunt service will be opening this week!

Firstly to previous members (Wednesday). Then to members of my FREE NTF list (Friday). Then (if places remain) to everyone else (Monday 14th).

If you do want to join the full service then I seriously advise you to get your name on the FREE NTF list. Not only will this guarantee you a place on the service but you will also be able to join for the discounted rate.

On joining the FREE list you will also be able to download my free 90+ day October trainers guide (highlighted 3 winners yesterday!).

I will also be unleashing my ’20 to follow’ list tomorrow (Tuesday) which gives you a group of ‘under the radar’ horses I expect to win plenty of races this 2013/14 season.

*Spoiler Alert* There are NO Henderson, Nicholls or Mullins horses on this list!!

Make sure you don’t miss out on all this by joining the FREE list HERE >>> Join the FREE NTF list

Ben (BDH/NTF)

p.s. Want to know what is in the NTF 2013/14 service? Think of this summer here on BDH but think BIGGER, BETTER and MORE!

I’m really excited about this forthcoming National Hunt season…

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BDH Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe – Full Analysis Guide

Sea The Stars bursts clear in the 2009 renewal. (Picture taken by Mrs NTF!)

The Arc De Triomphe. Arguably the greatest flat race in the world. It gets my vote anyway! With that in mind it would be rude of me not to put the race under full and unadulterated BDH scrutiny.

Before that, however, just a wee line on our BDH qualifier at Ascot, DINKUM DIAMOND…

BDH Saturday runner: DINKUM DIAMOND (Ascot)

He was a no bet anyway but I always like to keep a close eye on our squad even when the money isn’t down.

I thought he ran well in 5th without ever really threatening the places. The ground was upgraded to Good to Soft from Soft so conditions would not have been as bad for him as they were predicted to be. If we can get him on Good or better before the season is out (Good to Firm still the preferable option) then I will be happy.

As for the winner of the race (breath…5, 6, 7, 8…) I think the less said about him the better! He obviously felt the pressure of running with the BDH cash down in previous runs but once unleashed from our shackles he was free to get a photo-finish in his favour. Frustrating but racing has a habit of doing that sometimes…

2013 Arc De Triomphe Analysis…

Before I get onto the analysis of this years renewal I have a wee poll for you all…

.

Now onto the serious stuff…

From a personal perspective I was all set to pull the trigger on NOVELLIST. He ticked most of the boxes in my guide and had clearly been primed for this race since his King George romp at Ascot back in July. I was ready to put the money down and highlight him as the main selection in the BDH guide… Alas, it was not to be. Turns out he ate some dodgy snails, or some of that horrible Pâté they serve over there and has been declared unfit to race (fever/temperature is the official line).

For me then it was back to the drawing board to sift through the remainder of the field to look for the most likely winner and an alternative selection for a two-pronged BDH attack on France’s showpiece contest.

All the usual in-depth BDH analysis for the 2013 renewal of the Pric De L’Arc De Triomphe can be downloaded from the link below…

>>>Full BDH Arc De Triomphe Analysis Guide

Remember there is plenty of information in the guide so you don’t just have to follow my selections if you don’t want to.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and let’s hope for a cracking race!

FREE NTF Guides…

I am in the process of pulling together 2 new and FREE NTF guides for the forthcoming National Hunt season.

One is a Scottish themed micro-system (VERY easy to use) and the other is my own ‘to follow list’ for the forthcoming season. It will be slightly different to the ones that are already floating about out there and will include quite a few ‘dark horses’ that probably won’t appear on other lists.

These FREE guides will be EXCLUSIVE to members of my FREE NTF list so if you want them you need to join at the following link…

>>>Join the FREE NTF list and get yourself prepared for the 2013/14 NH season!

Happy Punting

Ben (BDH)

BDH Saturday Qualifier: Dinkum done by the downpour?

Diamond in the rough?!?

One BDH qualifier for us on Saturday but is the ground playing for or against us at Ascot?

Before I get on to that though we have a wee bit of house keeping for our midweek BDH runner…

Thursday BDH runner – MISSION APPROVED (Warwick)

Another placed effort for the squad, this time a 3rd placed 1 length defeat at BFSP 7.4. I think we were a smidgen unlucky here as James Doyle had to get across early from the wide draw and that may have just left him a tad short for his finishing effort. MA was in the lead entering the final furlong but he just couldn’t sustain the effort all the way to the line. I was half banking on a decent amount of rain falling by the time our race was off (my original post on Mission Approved stated that ground with cut in it would help) but it just didn’t come in enough buckets to properly change the ground; when you need the rain it doesn’t come and when you don’t want it (like when you are walking the dogs!) it comes down in buckets!

Anyway I’m not overly disappointed with this run, it was a tough (although not impossible) draw to overcome but this was a decent effort. He has now run twice for us and been beaten a head and a length and I’m still happy to keep him in the squad for now. Hopefully he will get ground with a bit of cut in it sooner rather than later…

Now onto Saturday’s qualifier…

BDH Runner: DINKUM DIAMOND 1.30 Ascot

Ascot is currently SOFT so that quite simply means NO BET for us. We want Good to Firm or at the least Good but Soft is a no go. If he somehow wins on the Soft stuff then the world will have dropped off it’s axis!

DD has run 3 times for us since making the squad. We managed to grab some nice E/W profits when he ran on the Good to Firm at Ascot (3rd at 22-1, was 33’s in the morning), he got a troubled passage in the Stewards Cup next time out and then the ground went against him/us at York and he was a no-bet.

There will be others much more suited to the underfoot conditions in this race and I’ll happily leave him alone in this Listed contest. We may indeed struggle to get him on his favoured conditions now before this season is out…

Arc De Triomphe – Sunday

I am neck-deep in National Hunt stuff at the minute but I have taken time out to put Sunday’s big race at Longchamp under the ‘Trosage’ microscope and I will have a full and free BDH analysis guide ready for you to download here on the Blog.

To make sure you don’t miss out on this free and alternative guide for one of the worlds most famous and prestigious races simply join the NTF/BDH FREE list, where you will also be able to download a clutch of free racing guides and mini-angles…

>>>Join the FREE NTF/BDH list today

Ben (BDH/NTF)

BDH Weekend Review: Refusing at Ripon…

Murtagh holds on to defy 1 of my Cambridgeshire picks! Bugger!

Poor show from our BDH qualifier on Saturday and another photo-finish defeat, this time for 1 of my Cambridgeshire selections.

Here are my thoughts on Saturday’s action…

Chooseday – 3.45 Ripon

Choose Life. Choose a family. Choose a f*ck*ng big television. Just choose to go in the f*ck*ng stalls you bloody monkey!!

The writing was on the wall (in the gutter would be better terminology!) before the race was off here as it took at least 5 minutes (AT LEAST!!) to get him in the stalls. They even had to load the jockey first before getting the horse in! It was clear he wasn’t in the mood for this run and he never got involved at any stage of the contest once the gates sprung open. He broke average at best and then just dossed about out the back.

Not much we can take from this run to be honest and one of them we just have to draw a line under.

The one possible ‘excuse’ (not a word I like using) is that it may have come a bit too soon after his run at Ayr last week. His record when running within 7 days of his last start now reads 470; it is certainly something to bear in mind going forward.

Thunderball – 3.45 Ripon

Was a no selection for us anyway and he ran as I expected. We really need to see him on some soft ground (at the very least on Good to Soft) before our money is down. He really doesn’t look like he enjoys the Good or better ground but at least he may drop a couple of lbs before he does the business for us on the soft stuff (that’s the plan anyway!).

Hopefully patience will pay dividends for us with this lad…

Cambridgeshire…

Apologies for not getting my Cambridgeshire analysis into the Blog post but hopefully some of you managed to pick it up from the comments section of the post when I dropped it in at around 10.45 (check comments section here if you want to give it a gander).

I went for a big price swipe with The Rectifier and a slightly less bigger priced swipe, although still a juicy 20-1-ish when I backed it, on Code Of Honour.

As you all know Code Of Honour failed by a whisker to get up on the line! Aaaaggghhhh! Why do these bloody photo finishes go against you… still the Each-Way portion softened the blow…slightly…

New BDH Squad Members…

There isn’t going to be any. I’m happy to let our squad roll until the end of the season. We have a few in there that will handle any juice in the ground that may appear (Jack Dexter, Tawhid & Thunderball I’m looking at you guys…) and hopefully a couple of them can roll into the winners enclosure before stumps are drawn on the 2013 Flat season.

I’ll be rolling out a few FREE National Hunt guides over on BDH’s big bro’ NTF in the coming days and weeks so as previously mentioned that will be where my main focus is starting to turn towards.

The NTF action can be found over here >>> Get ready for the 2013/14 National Hunt season with NTF 

Ben (BDH/NTF)

BDH Saturday Qualifiers: Choose Life. Choose Ripon. Chooseday…

We head to Ripon for our Saturday BDH runners.

Two qualifiers for us on Saturday at the Garden Racecourse, more commonly known as Ripon, with both our runners looking for glory in the same contest.

There is also a raft of former BDH runners hitting the track on Saturday, 3 of them being former winners for us and the other being one that had us tearing our hair out before we ceremoniously booted him out of the squad. If he should win the big one at Newmarket (Cambridgeshire) then his name shall never be spoken in these parts again!! I’m sure you all know who I am talking about…

Anyway let’s deal with our 2 runners from our current squad…

Saturday’s BDH runners…

BDH Runners:CHOOSEDAY & THUNDERBALL 3.45 Ripon

A 12 runner field here so there won’t be a great a pace or draw bias at play. It is a slight negative to be in the higher stalls in this sort of field size at the track but not a complete danger area and our 2 are drawn in 2 (Thunderball) & 8 (Chooseday) anyway so I see no problems there.

The pace will probably/possibly come from SPINATRIX in stall 5. THUNDERBALL did attempt to go from the front at Ayr last week but that was probably due to circumstance rather than by design and I would expect him to be behind the pace rather than on it here. CHOOSEDAY should also be sitting quite handy as well. It can be difficult to win from out the back over this trip at Ripon so having our 2 sitting behind the leader should be a positive for their chances.

Let’s now deal with them individually…

CHOOSEDAY

One of our recent additions to the squad and we get a quick opportunity to see him strut his stuff here. I only had 2 conditions for him and those were Good to Soft or better underfoot conditions and 6 furlongs. He meets both those conditions here and with Good ground forecast and no rain predicted (the opposite in fact) we are good to go.

To add a bit of meat to the bone I’ve also noted the following…

His Ripon form is solid (25244) with his 2nd best RPR figure of 91 (best is 93) being recorded at the track.

5lb claimer Shane Gray takes the mount for the first time and if we take his claim into account then CHOOSEDAY is actually running off a mark of 81. To put that in context that has him 4lbs lower than when he ran 3rd at Goodwood (3 runs ago) and 6lbs lower than when he ran a close 4th at Ripon (2 runs ago) – those 2 runs were his 1st & 2nd best on RPR figures as well as his 1st & 2nd best runs on the Proform speed figures.

I’m happy to have him on our side today and at the odds available (around 9-1 at time of writing) I’ll take him in an each-way capacity.

THUNDERBALL

I’m going to have to pass on him today. I’ve been looking for Soft ground since he made our list and yet again the rain gods have failed to deliver for us. His last win was on Soft (9 runs ago) and on that day he recorded an RPR of 99. Since then he has run 6 times on Good or better with his best 2 RPR figures being 89 & 83; essentially he has only managed to get within 10lbs of his last winning mark once on his ‘unfavourable’ ground. His other 2 runs were on Good to Soft where he recorded RPR’s of 96 & 50 (when he was drawn out of it in stall 1 at Ayr); more proof that he wants some sort of cut to run near or to his best these days.

Others aspects do look in his favour today but that ground worries me and is enough to put me off.

Best of luck if you are getting involved

Ben (BDH)

Join the FREE NTF/BDH updates list for free racing guides and a discount on your full subscription to my National Hunt service – Doors open middle of October.

BDH Weekend Review: Sifting through the wreckage…

Well Saturday was a tough day at the office!!

Jack Dexter ran a big race in 3rd under his welter burden and softened the hammers blows slightly (very slightly!!) but apart from his effort there was precious little else to shout about.

Let’s dissect the runs of our BDH squad and see if we should boot any of them into touch…

2.40 Ayr – Silver Cup

THUNDERBALL

Two things went markedly against Scott Dixon’s runner here. At the time of writing we were looking at Soft ground, which is the ideal conditions we want for him. By the time the gates went up it had dried to a tacky Good to Soft, OK for him but not perfect and in a race of this nature you probably want perfect conditions. It was also quite clear (by the time they crossed the line!) that it was the high stalls that held the upper hand here, he was isolated in stall 1 and that just left him high and dry with nowhere to go.

One thing that did surprise in this race was that the low group actually gunned it down the middle. Why not stay in a straight line and fire down the far rail? Most horses are better with a rail to run against, last time I looked there were no rails down the middle! Personally I thought it was a strange decision, it maybe made little to no difference but there was a rail down that side and I would have thought it would have been more beneficial to use it that float about down the middle of the track…

We learned nothing about T-Ball here and he stays on the list, hopefully we get PROPER soft ground for him next time out.

YEEOOW

I actually though he ran a sound enough race in 8th. He came there with a challenging run but as soon as he was pulled into the middle his run fizzled out. He was at least still well in the ball-park come the line and I’m happy to keep him in the squad for now.

3.30 Newbury – Group 3

STEPS

Didn’t even manage to engage 1st gear here! He was struggling after about 100 yards and never looked like landing even a glancing blow. Is he just feeling the effects of a long-ish season?

We have been unlucky not to collect with him recently (VERY unlucky!) but I fear he may be stuck in no-mans land now (above his handicap ceiling but not quite up to Group level). With that in mind it’s time to say goodbye to this squad member, he did us proud despite not winning but things are probably going to get tricky for him with regards where to place him and we now say au revoir to STEPS.

3.50 Ayr – Gold Cup

JACK DEXTER

Hard to crab a 3rd placed effort from a mark of 110 in one of the most competitive sprint handicaps known to man. He was an each-way bet and he delivered. For a brief moment it looked like he would unleash a barn-storming finishing kick but it wasn’t to be. Drying ground wouldn’t have been perfect for him but in no way could it be used as an excuse, I would have preferred soft but was more than happy to dive in on Good to Soft.

One thing that did spring to mind in the aftermath of the race was ‘Did he need the run?’

This was his first start for 84 days, his record after a break of 31 days or more now reads – 464312 – admittedly not that bad but now look at his record after a break of 30 days or less – 11100115371 – or even after 20 days or less – 1001111. Certainly edging towards him being better after a recent run and something for us to bear in mind going forward from here.

I’m more than happy to keep JD on the list after that run.

DUKE OF FIRENZE

No bet on DOF anyway and ran as I expected. To be honest I didn’t even hear the commentator mention him once! These would not have been his ideal conditions and I’m not judging him on this performance. He can still do damage when conditions suit him, just not sure there will be spots for him to strut his stuff before the season is out…

Additional selections…

I did put up 2 additional selections for the Gold Cup and they both ran OK without setting the world alight.

OUR JONATHON ran a sound race in 7th and I did briefly think he may sneak a place for us but he just couldn’t quite get there. He is on a decent mark and could pick something up before the season is out.

GABRIEL’S LAD was probably caught on the ‘wrong’ side of the high numbers and his 9th place was a decent enough run considering he had to do most of his work out in the middle.

Again I was surprised that there wasn’t a group trying to gun it down the far side rail. It was drying ground and what’s to say the far side wasn’t drying faster than the near side? Surely it was worth a punt instead of losing ground tracking over to the middle?

I’m going to review all the big sprints from Ayr later on today, there are a few I noted when watching the races ‘live’ as potentials for our BDH squad but as always I like to have a proper look once the dust has settled.

I’ll do my best to keep all things BDH updated in the coming weeks but my attention will be switching to NTF very shortly and I expect that to devour plenty of my time; I’m already doing some work on the Paddy Power Gold Cup!! I’m starting to think David Pipe has a fantastically strong hand (again!) to play in the race with a couple of his team (obvious and less obvious members) but there is also one from the Hobbs team that is potentially very interesting…

Anyway that’s for the National Hunt leg of my racing work (you can join NTF here and grab a bunch of FREE guides at the same time), I’ll hopefully have a new BDH squad member for you in the next couple of days on here.

Ben (BDH)