BDH Qualifier: Mission Approved or Mission Impossible?

 

Let’s hope it isn’t Mission ‘Impossible’ from stall 15…

A bit of mid-grade, mid-week action for us today with one of our BDH squad tackling the 6 furlong trip at Warwick…

BDH Runner: MISSION APPROVED 5.10 Warwick

We were very unlucky not to collect with him at Kempton last time out when he went down in a photo-finish by a head. That was a career best on the figures and his A/W mark was also put up 5lbs to 85 by the handicapper off the back of the run. He is able to run from his mark of 80 here back on the turf and although Turf-A/W form doesn’t always translate I would be confident our lad has at least a similar amount of improvement in him from this turf mark.

The positives for MA are that he is 1 from 1 at the track, both his wins have come going left-handed, he should handle any change in the going if the forecast rain arrives and the Stoute yard are in a decent bit of form at present – 10/29 | 34% S/R in the past 2 weeks. The Stoute runners also do well from their limited raids to the track – 5/16 | 31% S/R in the past 5 seasons.

The negative for MA is potentially the draw. Stall 15 of 17 wouldn’t be ideal although admittedly the figures don’t say it is completely impossible and there haven’t been too many large field races over this trip at Warwick in recent seasons to make a strong assessment.

Digging into my Proform database I had a look at 6f races at Warwick with fields of 12 or more and looked at those in stalls 13+ as a group. The following figures were returned…

2/56 | 4% S/R – Win & Place 8/56 | 14% S/R

It is a concern rather than a worry I would say…

So do we back him or not? 

Personally if I can get 5’s or above then I will take it. The draw is a concern but he is an improving horse and he may just have a bit too much for some of these. James Doyle rode him for the first time last time out and hopefully he will have learned plenty about him that day and he will be able to keep him a bit closer to the pace here.

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)

BDH Friday Qualifiers: Last chance saloon for WW & Taw?

Are 2 of our squad drinking in the last chance saloon today?

Two of our BDH squad take to the rain softened turf today with WAKING WARRIOR running up at Ayr and TAWHID running down at Newbury. Both horses potentially running in the last chance saloon as far as being fully paid up members of our BDH offensive line.

Before I give you my take on their chances here are my thoughts on our Wednesday runner MISSION APPROVED… ‘agggghhhhh not another bloody photo finish 2nd?!?!?’

Only kidding (kinda!!), here are my real thoughts…

MISSION APPROVED 8.45 Kempton (AW)

Whether it was Richard Kingscote stealing the race with an early move or it was in fact James Doyle ‘losing’ the race by getting his mount going too late is irrelevant now, the facts are the line came a yard or 2 too soon for our lad and we ending up going down by an ever diminishing head. It can be a game of fractions this racing malarkey and we just came out on the wrong side of it. There was nothing in this run to suggest we should take him off our list and for now he remains as part of the team. Hopefully we will see him back on turf next time out…

Now to tackle today’s runners…

BDH Runner: WAKING WARRIOR 2.20 Ayr

I’m possibly being a bit harsh on saying this is the last chance saloon for this guy. In fairness he hasn’t had the best of the draws on his last 2 runs, however, I don’t want to give him too many more chances as his flat record does give me a wee bit of concern (0 from 25). I am happy to wade in with him today though as there is plenty of juice in his price to warrant our involvement.

He actually ran a decent 5th in this contest last season off the same mark on heavy ground so we can be fairly confident the track and underfoot conditions will be fine for him.

From a pace angle he should be OK, there are pace horse close enough to him to give him a good tow into the contest. To be honest there is pace from a few sources right across the track so baring something unusual happening with the grouping splits he should have as good a chance as any. The one worry would be a large group far side (low numbers) and a small group near side (high numbers) and our boy stuck in the near side. In the big sprint on Thursday at the track they split into 3 groups and that situation here would be perfect for our lad.

In a race of this size and with the odds available on our BDH warrior I’m happy to pitch in with an each-way punt.

BDH Runner: TAWHID 4.50 Newbury

Soft ground; now we are talking! This is the real ground we have been waiting for. He has run 3 times for us since he was added to the squad, for the first & second of those runs he was a ‘no-bet’ as the ground was officially described as good. He ran well enough on both those runs without winning but from a punting angle it wasn’t for us anyway. Last time out (3rd run for us) he had Good to Soft ground, which was closer to what we are after, but it is safe to say that he was given an…um…interesting ride. Whether that was pilot error or riding to instruction isn’t clear but whatever it was it clearly didn’t play out well. Today we have Soft underfoot conditions; game on!

The Soft/Heavy ground form of Tawhid reads 113 (3rd in a Group 2) and Silvestre De Sousa back in the plate is a huge bonus (the pairing have a 1432 record together). Here he steps back down out of Group company for this first time since his maiden victory last October and the 3yo weight allowance he receives here sways things very much in his favour.

This is a golden opportunity for him and I’ll be backing him for the win. If he doesn’t convert then his place on the BDH squad is very much in jeopardy…

Ayr Gold & Silver Cups… 

At the minute we are double handed on the BDH front in both these contests, fingers crossed all line up on the day. Make sure you check back in either tonight or Saturday morning to see my full thoughts on these squad members. Needless to say the Ayr Gold Cup is very much a race I want us to nail…

Ben (BDH)

BDH Qualifier: Approved on an All-Weather Mission…

We make a first trip onto the all-weather with our BDH squad as one of our recent additions tackles the polytrack at Kempton’s evening meeting…

BDH Runner: MISSION APPROVED 8.45 Kempton (AW)

To be fair this wasn’t really the area I was hoping he would be tackling but we will roll with it.

He is back up to 6f for today’s assignment which should be perfectly fine and he has run well at the track on his only other visit; 2nd over 7f as a 2yo. He does have a victory on the Lingfield all-weather so as far as the underfoot surface goes I don’t think we have any worries.

On his last start at Sandown he finished a neck behind Dungannon and we all know what Dunny did on his next start! Joe Packet who finished 7th in that Sandown race came out and ran a decent 5th at Doncaster last week and ran to a mark of 91 (on RPR figures) so the early signs are that the Sandown race is working out quite well from a form perspective.

This race signifies a small drop in class for our lad and as I think there is still plenty improvement to come I would be disappointed if he doesn’t get involved in the finish of this race. At around 4-1 I’m happy to back him. Hopefully he wins this then they go looking for a turf ‘mission’ before the season is out.

NTF Analysis

The Kerry National takes place today at Listowel and I have a full Dosage & Trends breakdown of the race over on NTF…

>>>Kerry National Analysis available on NTF

Best of luck if you get involved today

Ben (BDH)