Darley July Cup: Dosage & Trends Analysis

A couple of races of interest for us tomorrow (Saturday) at Newmarket on the July course.

The highlight on a busy days racing is the Darley July Cup at Newmarket and that gives us an opportunity to open up the Dosage & Trends analyzer and fire the race through the ‘Trosage’ machine (I just made that up, I’ll see if it catches on…). Also at Newmarket we have a dual BDH assault on the ever tricky and competitive 32Red Bunbury Cup.

So lets crack on…

Bunbury Cup… 

We get 2 bites at the Bunbury cherry with both REDVERS and FIELD OF DREAM going to war for us from the BDH list.

The pace angle in this race doesn’t look too obvious but the pace map just suggests, and I would very much emphasis the just, that it may be the middle to high stalls that have an advantage. Both our warriors are drawn high so it may well be a good thing that we have both our eggs in one basket, however, Field Of Dream is stuck in the 20 box and that would make life very difficult should the pace actually end up low..

Here is the Bunbury Cup pace map for your perusal….

2013 Bunbury Cup

As you can see there really isn’t that much in the way of out and out front-runners here so it is a bit of a guessing game with regards to the pace, I guess there is every chance our 2 are caught on the wrong side of it, although hopefully not and my initial assessment of a high pace bias is correct.

I also had a look at the trends for this race but in my opinion it isn’t really a strong race for the angle and not one that I would personally get stuck into in that regard. However, I did in the end plump with the following 4 to give us just another little angle into the race…

15/16 had at least 1 previous victory over 6f

14/16 ran over 7f or 8f LTO

12/16 had only 1 start in the past 30 days

10/16 were (IRE) bred

That does actually cut the race down a fair bit and of the clutch that are left REDVERS is one of them. FIELD OF DREAM only fails on 1 of them so I’m not overly concerned on that score.

Both look to have conditions in their favour and at the prices – FIELD OF DREAM 11-1, REDVERS 14/1 – I’m happy to have them both on my side.

Even if they don’t fire today they won’t be dropping off the to follow list, there is every chance it will be a messy race, especially as there seems to be no clear cut pace angle.

Now onto the big race of the day; The Darley July Cup.

Darley July Cup Analysis…

It looks an enthralling renewal of this Group 1 and they are sure to scorch down the 6f track in the lightning fast conditions.

The analysis for this race does a fine job of cutting the field into a manageable chunk so hopefully the winner is on the shortlist…

>>>Free Darley July Cup Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

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Ben (BDH)

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BDH Update: Is the Duke ready to Fire?

Will Ryan Moore find the gaps?

Another quick update for you today guys as another BDH runner heads into battle.

First of all though a big thanks for all the comments regarding Doctor Parkes’ win yesterday. Fantastic to see so many of you on board and collecting the spoils.

Now onto today’s task in hand…

BDH runner: 2:05 Sandown – DUKE OF FIRENZE

Ahh the Duke… what to do with the Duke…

I must say it’s not as straight forward a task as the good doctor yesterday. I did mention in my notes that I think he is a graded beast…and this is a graded contest…however, I was thinking more along the lines of the big 16+ runner sprints such as the July Cup and races of such ilk. An 8 runner contest at Sandown poses a slightly different conundrum.

For starters we know he needs a strong pace to come hard and fast off the back of, so lets look at the pace map and see if there is potential for plenty of speed….

Sandown Sprint Stakes

That does give us a bit of hope. Three potential front-runners and 2 others sitting in-behind suggests there may well be plenty of pace on the go here.

My main concern really is that a flying 5 furlongs at Sandown generally plays to the hands of those up with the pace or making the pace, the ones coming from behind can often come unstuck (the stats do back this up).

I’m very much in 2 minds about how this race will suit Duke Of Firenze. On one hand he has a good draw and should get a decent pace to aim at but on the other hand it is not a track that really suits horses flying hard and fast from out the back…hmmm…

My thought is to take a punt on him at around the 6-1 mark but at reduced stakes. Now I generally don’t play about with my stakes unless the situation really suggest that I do… today the situation suggests I reduce my stakes!

I think there will be better opportunities for this lad as the season progresses but there is the potential for the race to fall into his lap, especially if the 3 potential pace-setters go hammer and tong at it up front, and as such I want a bit on him in case that situation does arise, especially as we can get around 6-1 on the exchanges and with a couple of other firms.

Am I as confident as I was about Doctor Parkes? Not at all. Do I think there is more to come from this horse? Most certainly. Will he get the fast pace needed? I’m hopeful.

At the very least today will be a good test for him and hopefully a decent indicator of does he just have another valuable handicap in him or whether he can indeed take the step up the ladder to Graded level….

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)