3.15 Epsom (01-06-13) – INVESTEC DASH (HERITAGE HANDICAP) 5f, Class 2 (17 ran)

Hi guys and many thanks for all the messages, tweets and comments over the weekend. Before I get stuck into the meat of today’s post (the Epsom Dash BDH report) I just want to take a quick look back at how the figures played out on Saturday…

The Epsom Dash was the first race for scrutiny and disappointingly one of my own selections, Humidor, was a non-runner. I felt he had a serious chance in this, even more so with how the race played out. Regardless of his absence the shortlist (OK it was a fairly long shortlist!) played out well.

Here is how the shortlist fared…

JIROFT – 5th at 33/1

DINKUM DIAMOND – 3rd at 25-1

DUKE OF FIRENZE – 1st at 5-1

CAPTAIN DUNNE – 7th at 7-1

LONG AWAITED – 12th at 11/2

MISTER MANANNAN – 16th at 20/1

SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL –  2nd at 7/1

First 3 home on the list so I’m happy with how the figures performed. Would have been happier if Smoothtalkinrascal got up though…

The 2nd race for us was the big one itself – The Investec Derby!

Think I’ll just let the figures talk for themselves here…

BATTLE OF MARENGO – 4th at 11/2

OCOVANGO – 5th at 8/1

RULER OF THE WORLD – 1st at 7/1

CHOPIN – 7th at 12/1

DAWN APPROACH – 12th at 5/4

Ruler Of The World did the job fantastically well and on my figures was the real strong contender for this race. Of the others I reckon Ocovango can be marked up a notch or 2. He had the death draw in stall 1 and also got squeezed for room 2f AND 1f out.

Again I was clearly more than happy with how the figures played out.

Anyway enough of the guides and onto the matter in hand; sourcing a badly drawn horse (or 2) for us to follow…

Race in focus: 2.55 Epsom (01-06-2013): Investec Dash Handicap – 5f, Class 2 (17 ran)

How the race played out…

Epsom Dash 2013

As you can see from the pace map it was perennial speedster CAPTAIN DUNNE who blasted away and set the pace from the high stalls. Both JUDGE N JURY & JIROFT tried to set a pace down low but the field all gravitated towards the high stalls (near side) and they were forced to tow the line to a certain degree or end up being isolated on their own. Pre-race I knew there was the potential of pace from high and low but Captain Dunne absolutely blitzed the start and the others simply dropped in and followed, making it a high end pace race.

This obviously made life that much harder for those coming from the low stalls as they had to drag themselves across to tow the line with the bulk of the field.

The end result…

Relative to the horses that finished around him winner DUKE OF FIRENZE had a fairly straight trajectory from box 16 to the finishing line, only having to switch positions to get the gaps at the end. He ran well in the York race that was covered on here last week and he was coming here in decent form. The pace very much played for him here and Moore was masterful in the saddle as he picked his way through late on. Second placed SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL is the obvious eye-catcher in the race and probably the unluckiest horse in the race as well. He was carried slightly left out of the stalls and then had to switch to his right and cover the width of the track to come where the pace was. This cost him vital ground but he dug in and finished with an almighty rattle. Third placed DINKUM DIAMOND is another that was inconvenienced by the draw and he also met trouble a couple of times in running as he tried to track across to where the pace was. He finished strongly and is somewhat of an overlooked horse in the outcome of this contest. Fourth placed FAIR VALUE had every chance from a prime draw and there are no real excuses for him. Fifth placed JIROFT, who was making his UK debut, tried to be right on the speed early with Judge and Jury but the pace was up the other side and he had to try and make his way over. He did extremely well to dig in and finish 5th from a less than ideal position.

BDH(s) to follow…

DINKUM DIAMOND (3rd)  (H Candy)

This 5yo’s run was eye-catching on 2 fronts…

1) He had his poor draw to overcome from stall 5

and

2) He didn’t actually have ideal conditions for him to perform to his optimum

The first point is pretty self-explanatory and unlike 2nd placed Smoothtalkinrascal this lad didn’t tuck in behind the pace and stayed slightly detached from the real bulk of the pace group. I wouldn’t say he had the clearest of runs either when he was asked to pick up by his jockey and as such his 1/2 length defeat is even more noteworthy.

As for not having his conditions, consider this; ALL 4 of his career victories have come on Good to Firm, on Saturday he was racing on Good ground and a Good that had been upgraded from Good to Soft the previous day.

His Good to Firm form figures read 11673311 with the 6th and 7th placed runs coming in Graded races as a 2yo.

To add more credence to his run he was also giving weight away to all bar 2 of the field on Saturday and recorded an RPR figure that was only 1lb shy of his best, it was in fact his best figure for 9 runs.

The first and the 2nd both took the attention away from this lad and that could mean he goes into his next couple of races flying a touch under the radar and, hopefully, starting at a rather tasty price.

Conditions – For starters I think we really want to be seeing him on GOOD TO FIRM ground. With the weather now hopefully turning for the better we will surely have a good chance of that happening. He has actually been dropped 2lbs to OR 100 for his run on Saturday and if he is dealt a favour by the draw then he can land a handicap of a similar nature soon.  I also wouldn’t dismiss him running a big race in a Graded sprint if he is dealt with Good To Firm underfoot.

SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL is only a 3yo and could well turn out to be a Graded sprinter off the back of this run. Most punters will have noticed his run, however. Of the others 5th place JIROFT may well crop up somewhere as he has shown he can transfer his Italian form to over here, he remains in the peripheral vision.

DINKUM DIAMOND now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool (horse tracker in other words) and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Many thanks for joining me here on the latest BDH post and I leave you with another from the tea-cosy wearing wonder of a similar name…

Ben (BDH)

Advertisements

Epsom Derby Meeting Day 2: Dosage & Trends Analysis

Day 2 of the Epsom Derby meeting and it’s the big one; The Investec Derby!

I have 2 races under scrutiny today for you lot but before I give you the guide it’s well worth taking a look back at yesterday’s proceedings.

We started with Diomed Stakes and our fate was known on Producer before he even entered the stalls as it looked for all money that he wouldn’t go in and was being unusually mule-ish. He did eventually load in the stalls but the amount of energy used up behind the stalls probably lost him his race, it was also far from ideal that Hughes made a scoot for home as they turned Tattenham Corner, an odd move and ultimately the horse petered out to be a 4 length 4th. The other horse on the short-list, Penitent, ran a solid race in 2nd.

The Investec Mile, although not nailing the winner, actually turned out to be a really solid race for the guide.

Here is how the short-list fared…

HI THERE – 8th at 8-1

OCEAN TEMPEST – 3rd at 10/1

LEVITATE – 4th at 8/1

BENZANNO – 5th at 15/2

LORD OF THE SHADOWS – 2nd at 16/1

Lord Of The Shadows only went down by 1/2 a length in the end and met trouble in-running 2f out and also stumbled slightly 1f out. It may not have been the difference between winning and losing but it’s worth noting and the run did at least back up my notion he is very well handicapped on old form.

The Oaks was the 3rd race for us and it was a bit like Chester Cup deja bloody vu for me! 4 on the short-list, I went for 2 of them, the other 2 finished 1st & 2nd!! The consolation being that the figures were spot-on, the downside being that my bank-balance does not reflect it!

Here is how the short-list fared…

LIBER NAUTICUS – 5th at 4-1

TALENT – 1st at 20/1 (BFSP 26.61)

BANOFFEE – 7th at 7/1

SECRET GESTURE – 2nd at 3/1

The other consolation being that I know some of you profited from the figures, so well done if you went with Talent 🙂

In the end the guide performed really well and I’m more than happy with how the figures panned out.

On to today and we start with the fiendishly tricky Epsom Dash. The pace looks to be coming from all over the track and although the low numbers hold the real speedsters there are enough up the top end to make it an even spread. Regardless of the result I’ll be reviewing the race closely to see if there were any hard luck stories from a draw/pace angle and will be reporting back next week.

The Derby is our 2nd race and the big question is about Dawn Approach’s stamina. To me the real question isn’t ‘Does Dawn Approach have enough stamina to see out the trip?’ but more ‘Are there other runners in the race who have stronger staying credentials than the favourite?’ and if yes ‘Does Dawn Approach have enough in the way of class to counteract the stronger stayers?’.

The answer isn’t a clear one to be honest. Yes, there are likely to be stronger stayers in the race. Yes, Dawn Approach looks to be head and shoulders above the others in terms of class. It may be enough to counteract the stronger stayers in a normal run race but we also have to factor in the Ballydoyle spoilers out front, who are sure to set off like their arse is on fire!. They have often made a muck up of the pace tactics in the past but they will get it spot on one day…

The truth is I can see a situation where Dawn Approach romps away with this race, however, there are enough questions marks and spoilers in there for me to look elsewhere at his current odds…

It is all in today’s guide, which you can download from the link below…

*Ocovango Dosage figures updated 11.30 am

>>>Epsom Derby Day Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with me here, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize into your own thoughts and workings.

Happy Derby day punting however you decide to put the guide to use.

Ben (BDH)