BDH Weekend Review: Job Dun!

Well that was a pretty good weekend!

4 BDH qualifiers – 2 winners. For good measure the Haydock Sprint Cup winner was also thrown into the mix; good work GLB.

When reviewing the weekends action for my own records I also, naturally, kept my BDH brain in full recruitment mode as I look to replace and strengthen our squad. Unfortunately nothing instantly stood out at me and I won’t add new members just for the sake of it. That would be pointless and a sure way to eek into our profits.

I have a couple of potentials in mind but I want to review the action again with a fresh mind, possibly tonight or tomorrow, and do a bit more digging into their previous form.

For now, however, I’ll give you my thoughts on our 4 weekend runners and where we go from here with them…

Weekend BDH runners…

BDH Runner: REDVERS 1.55 Ascot – 1st at BFSP 10.37

He was drawn with pace round about him and jockey Richard Kingscote gave him a superb ride, hooking behind the pace on his side instead of right out the back and cruising into contention in style; job was a good ‘un.

As far as I’m concerned for our BDH list it is “thanks and good-bye, we will call again if your services are required”. As always that doesn’t mean I won’t back him in the future but for now he drops off the BDH list after doing the job we employed him for; securing us some tasty profits!

Good lad Redvers and best of luck going forward.

BDH Runner: WAKING WARRIOR 2.00 Thirsk – 6th at BFSP 12.5

The Kevin Ryan horse always seemed to be climbing a slippy slope here and that has to go down primarily to the draw. I thought it may be tricky from his berth but I maybe gave too much credence to its effect being lessened over the furlong further. Lesson learned and for now he stays in our squad.

I want to see him get a real shot at a race from a decent draw before making a solid assessment of his position in our squad.

BDH Runner: TAWHID 2.40 Haydock – 4th at BFSP 4.92

Hmmmmm…Tawhid…hmmmmmm. Either Mosse got the tactics wrong or the tactics he was given were wrong. The horse maybe didn’t help himself too much either but the facts are he managed to meet trouble in-running and wasn’t really able show his true potential. Once in the clear, and the race was over, he looked to have plenty left to give.

I learned nothing from this run, which is a shame as he had his ground on this occasion and should have been able to show more. He stays on the list for now.

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON 5.10 Ascot 1st at BFSP 4.74

This played out perfectly for Dunny and he made no mistake this time. I was a bit concerned by the price beforehand but I managed to get 5.5 on the exchanges about 15-20 mins before the off and I was happy with that; the more I looked at the race through the day the more convinced I became that he was going to win. (I tweeted 10 mins before the off that I had backed him, for transparency’s sake).

I see no need to keep him in our squad from here on in and like Redvers we say goodbye to Dunny after his well-timed victory at Ascot.

Good job Dunny, job well done, we may well see you back in the squad at some time in the future…

The other race covered by myself was the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup…

Haydock Sprint Cup

GORDON LORD BYRON did the job in fantastic style for us and that my friends is how you win a Group 1 contest! Impressive! To be fair he had his conditions but regardless of that fact it was an almighty performance.

In the end I only went with Heeraat as my cover bet, viewing of the ground from earlier races put me off Lethal Force as did his ever diminishing price. My own pace notes suggested he wouldn’t get an easy lead and that mixed with the softened ground just didn’t sit well with me as we approached the off. It is safe to say his run shouldn’t be taken at face value, he is waaaay better than the end result and conditions simply did not play to his strengths.

Heeraat ran a very poor race but his jockey Paul Hanagan did report after the race that his mount had ‘lost it’s action’ so we maybe also shouldn’t take his run at face value either.

In the end this was all about GLB though and he confirmed that when conditions are tilted towards him he is a serious player in the Group 1 sprinting division.

BDH Handicap Sleepers…

Some of you probably noticed that one of the handicap sleepers in my recent FREE guide was running at York yesterday; TIGER REIGNS in the 3.35. You will also have hopefully noted he was clearly a ‘no-bet’.

The field size was way outside his comfort zone and he was also running over a trip that was 2.5 furlongs longer than his optimum; he finished a comfortable 41 lengths behind the winner in 18th place!

Personally I’m happy with that. That should see another drop down the ratings from Mr Handicapper and it should also see him start at some juicy odds next time out. Hopefully connections will find a race that meets requirements on his next start (if you have the guide you know what they are), I really think he can land something at lofty odds when he gets his conditions…

Closing thoughts for the day…

Back to the main BDH list and if I see a potential new addition to our squad to replace Redvers and Dungannon then I will fire up a Blog post later in the week with all the details.

I’m also now getting properly stuck into the National Hunt game behind the scenes as I start work on the NTF National Hunt service 2013/14. I’ll hopefully still be blogging as regularly as usual on here but if not you know the reason why…

Ben (BDH)

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GLB to land the Group 1 spoils for BDH?

GLB to take the G1 spoils today?

A potentially very busy day for us on Saturday here on BDH with 4 of our attack squad entered to run at various venues up and down the country. I also want to take a quick look at the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup as it features plenty of runners we have had dealings with this summer, and as a fan of consistency it makes sense to cover the race, using trends and pace as our main weapons into the contest.

As is often the case at this ‘changing’ time of the year the weather is likely to play a crucial part in proceedings with rain forecast at both Haydock & Ascot. Looking at the forecast it could be that the north gets a decent lashing in good old fashioned stair rods style! Haydock got a weather beatdown yesterday and whilst that is hopefully the worst of it out of the way it’s best to keep an eye on any potential (probable?) changes in the underfoot conditions.

Before I tuck into the Group 1 sprint action lets first cover our BDH runners…

BDH Runner: REDVERS 1.55 Ascot

Enough in his favour to warrant our interest in him here. He looks to have a good slot in stall 5 as there seems to be plenty of potential pace around about him and he should be able to sit out the back and make his usual late move.

He never really got into the race last time out over C&D but he has had a wee freshen up since then and at tasty enough odds I’m on, probably with a bit of E/W cover.

BDH Runner: WAKING WARRIOR 2.00 Thirsk

Like last time at Thirsk he is drawn low, which is a small concern, however, this time it is over a furlong further so comes with slightly less of a worry. His form at the track is solid (26239) although this is the first time he has tackled the Thirsk 6f, something which I think will suit him.

There is enough in his favour to make him of interest but it is going to have to be with each-way cover, that draw niggles me a bit and at the end of the day we are dealing with a horse who is still a maiden on the flat. I do think 6 furlong here will suit him, as will the softened ground.

I’ll have a punt E/W on him and I’ll be hoping for him to flash home late under Mulrennan

BDH Runner: TAWHID 2.40 Haydock

Good to Soft with the potential for more rain makes the Godolphin runner an obvious bet, based solely on my previous comments about him. Looks a winnable race and Mosse is certainly an interesting booking. I’m happy to take a punt and at the projected odds, I’m on.

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON 5.10 Ascot

First things first that is a crap price for a horse who hasn’t won for a while, racing in a field of this size. There is a bit of the Dance And Dance’s about this! I’m not seeing much bang for my buck here, that is a concern.

There is, however, plenty in his favour and he is one of the better handicapped runners in the field, I can’t crib that too much. Draw wise he also seems to have more than enough pace around him to hook onto a swoop late, again I can’t quibble with that.

I would like to back him but I think I’m going to need to see a wee bit of a drift first before getting involved. For now I’m hanging fire and will watch and see how the market unfolds…

Now onto the Group 1 sprint action of the day…

Betfred Sprint Cup – Haydock 3.50

…and what better way to start than with the pace map…

Haydock Sprint CupThe above tells us that there looks a fairly heavy leaning towards the middle to low stalls for the pace angle and those drawn around 10+ may not have much to aim at on their side.

LETHAL FORCE & HEERAAT should set the pace from the low numbers with HAMZA in stall 7 also likely to try and get in on the pace-setting duties.

On the trends angle this would not be a race I would be getting overly deep in with regards to the trends, however, I have applied what I would consider to be 6 of the strongest trends to give us a way into the contest.

The trends I have used for today are…

1. 13/14 recorded a top 2 finish in current season

2. 12/14 were aged 3-5

3. 12/14 ran in a Group race LTO

4. 11/14 recorded a top 3 finish LTO

5. 11/14 started in the top 3 in the market LTO

6. 10/14 had previously finished in the top 3 at Group 1 level

Applying those trends to today’s field gives us…

Horse

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total

Lethal Force

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

6/6

Gordon Lord Byron

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

6/6

Heeraat

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Hamza

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Garswood

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Slade Power

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

5/6

Reckless Abandon

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

4/6

Rex Imperator

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

4/6

Swiss Spirit

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

4/6

Kavanagh

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

3/6

Kingsgate Native

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

3/6

Intense Pink

N

Y

Y

N

N

N

2/6

Tiddliwinks

N

N

Y

N

N

N

1/6

Hoof It

N

N

N

N

N

Y

1/6

Soul

N

N

N

N

Y

N

1/6

Hawkeyethenoo

N

N

N

N

N

N

0/6

Looking at the top end we get a workable shortlist of LETHAL FORCE, GORDON LORD BYRON (GLB), HEERAAT, HAMZA, GARSWOOD & SLADE POWER.

If I have read the draw correct then SOUL POWER may have a bit to do from his draw and I’m happy to drop him from the shortlist.

Personally I wouldn’t be convinced HAMZA is a Group 1 beast so I’m also happy to drop him from calculations.

GARSWOOD dropping to 6f doesn’t convince me and draw is also leaning towards being a slight negative for him as well, personally I’m happy to pass him over for today.

That leaves 3 – LETHAL FORCE, GLB & HEERAAT.

I’m happy to take a punt on Gordon Lord Byron. Underfoot conditions will suit, the trip is ideal and he has Group 1 form to his name, he will carry my money.

I’ll possibly/probably also look to have savers on one or both of LETHAL FORCE & HEERAAT. LF is the dominate force in the sprinting division and it was no shame to be put in his place by Moonlight Cloud last time out. Softening ground is a wee concern but if it stays Good to Soft he should be OK. HEERAAT needs to improve but there does look improvement there. If there is a tasty priced winner he could be it.

Busy day ahead and best of luck if you are getting involved.

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Ben (BDH)