Darley July Cup: Dosage & Trends Analysis

A couple of races of interest for us tomorrow (Saturday) at Newmarket on the July course.

The highlight on a busy days racing is the Darley July Cup at Newmarket and that gives us an opportunity to open up the Dosage & Trends analyzer and fire the race through the ‘Trosage’ machine (I just made that up, I’ll see if it catches on…). Also at Newmarket we have a dual BDH assault on the ever tricky and competitive 32Red Bunbury Cup.

So lets crack on…

Bunbury Cup… 

We get 2 bites at the Bunbury cherry with both REDVERS and FIELD OF DREAM going to war for us from the BDH list.

The pace angle in this race doesn’t look too obvious but the pace map just suggests, and I would very much emphasis the just, that it may be the middle to high stalls that have an advantage. Both our warriors are drawn high so it may well be a good thing that we have both our eggs in one basket, however, Field Of Dream is stuck in the 20 box and that would make life very difficult should the pace actually end up low..

Here is the Bunbury Cup pace map for your perusal….

2013 Bunbury Cup

As you can see there really isn’t that much in the way of out and out front-runners here so it is a bit of a guessing game with regards to the pace, I guess there is every chance our 2 are caught on the wrong side of it, although hopefully not and my initial assessment of a high pace bias is correct.

I also had a look at the trends for this race but in my opinion it isn’t really a strong race for the angle and not one that I would personally get stuck into in that regard. However, I did in the end plump with the following 4 to give us just another little angle into the race…

15/16 had at least 1 previous victory over 6f

14/16 ran over 7f or 8f LTO

12/16 had only 1 start in the past 30 days

10/16 were (IRE) bred

That does actually cut the race down a fair bit and of the clutch that are left REDVERS is one of them. FIELD OF DREAM only fails on 1 of them so I’m not overly concerned on that score.

Both look to have conditions in their favour and at the prices – FIELD OF DREAM 11-1, REDVERS 14/1 – I’m happy to have them both on my side.

Even if they don’t fire today they won’t be dropping off the to follow list, there is every chance it will be a messy race, especially as there seems to be no clear cut pace angle.

Now onto the big race of the day; The Darley July Cup.

Darley July Cup Analysis…

It looks an enthralling renewal of this Group 1 and they are sure to scorch down the 6f track in the lightning fast conditions.

The analysis for this race does a fine job of cutting the field into a manageable chunk so hopefully the winner is on the shortlist…

>>>Free Darley July Cup Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

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BDH Sandown Review: Gannon’s not Dun yet….

An interesting couple of days for us over the weekend and before I crack into the review of the 5f sprint at Sandown from Friday I just want to tidy up a few loose ends.

Starting with…

DOCTOR PARKES

As far as his role as a BDH runner is concerned it’s job done and thank you very much. On Friday he was very much a ‘well drawn horse’ and he rewarded us all at some very tasty prices. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does but for the purposes of this here blog he happily moves off the BDH list. Good job Doc.

DUKE OF FIRENZE

I think what Duke of Firenze (I’m going to call him DOF from now on!) confirmed to me on Saturday was that he needs the big fields to produce his best. Small fields tend to congregate and cluster up into 1 group, causing plenty of traffic jams for hold-up runners, such as DOF. In large field races the runners tend to fan out at the end of the race and gaps appear between runners as the petrol gauge starts to flicker on empty, gaps that Duke of Firenze obviously loves coming through in the closing stages. When the runners are spread across the track they naturally open up and fan out as the energy levels drop in the closing stages, this is where I feel Duke Of Firenze can be seen at his best.

He certainly met plenty trouble in-running on Saturday and he was hindered at least twice when looking to make forward moves. As mentioned this is more likely to happen in small fields when they cluster up so as frustrating as it is, it also isn’t surprising.

For now he remains on the BDH list.

Now onto the meat of today’s post…

Race in focus: 2.20 Sandown (05-07-2013) – LONDON’S RACE TRACKS RACINGANDMUSIC.CO.UK HANDICAP (Class 3 Handicap) 5f (14ran)

How the race played out…

Doctor Parkes Sandown Race 05-07

As is generally the case with sprints at Sandown it is the runners drawn low and up with the pace that come out on top and it was no different in this contest. There was some fine analysis pre-race on Racing UK by Eddie ‘the shoe’ Fremantle about the effect of the draw at Sandown over the 5f trip, where he pointed out the advantage of being drawn in the low stalls. He himself had walked the track before the race and stated that there was a distinct advantage, in his opinion, to those drawn low. That was purely from him having walked the track and tested the underfoot conditions himself. As it turns out he was spot on and it was also something I had indicated in my Blog post on Friday. It is very much something to keep in mind when punting in these types of races at Sandown although obviously the bias is somewhat negated in the smaller fields (7 or less runners).

The pace map tells us that the pace was set by FAIR VALUE in the 6 box and he tracked across to the far rail early on. DOCTOR PARKES got a good break from the 2 box and that allowed jockey Neil Callan to position him just where he wanted him, something that proved pivotal in his victory. JOE PACKET didn’t break quite as well and he was maybe just a quarter step behind where he wanted to be for most of the race, nevertheless he was still in a decent posi compared to some. Possibly the most interesting aspect of the pace was the fact that the top 5 stalls (boxes 10-15) all made the early decision to switch in behind the pack and run held-up. That isn’t too unexpected as they all generally run that way anyway but in truth it was also their only real option from their unfavorable draws. Unfortunately it was also a moved that severely compromised their chances. Of the 5 of them the smartest riding came from Thomas Brown on STEPS who kept his mount on the outer of the main group, leaving him room to try and bullet home late with an unblocked passage (ooh er missus!). He did, however, have the ‘best’ of the wide draws and was in a prime slot to make that decision.

The end result…

The winner DOCTOR PARKES was well drawn, in the prime position throughout and took full advantage. This was a good performance and he won fairly readily in the end. He will possibly now be pushing on to a mark that he will start to struggle with, as always it will be interesting to see the handicappers reaction. Second placed JOE PACKET possibly didn’t get the best start and had to fight his way back into it a bit but it was a solid run and there is every suggestion that he can win from this mark. He may just be better suited to being stepped back up to 6f. Third placed STEPS ran a very sound race from out wide, he was one that didn’t have a great draw but the fact he stayed wide probably benefited him as he had a clear passage to the line. He is running from a career high mark at the minute but still remains competitive, it is a close call whether the handicapper has him in his grip or not; personally I would like to see him dropped just a couple of lbs. FAIR VALUE gave it fair effort from the front but just couldn’t keep the closer’s at bay and faded slightly in the final yards into fourth. His recent runs suggest he could well pick a race up from this mark though and an easy 5f is probably his best option. Fifth place TAAJUB didn’t really take advantage of his good draw and found trouble by being held up. He is another that suggests he could win from his current mark. As previously mentioned it’s hard to win from out the back and out wide over Sandown’s flying 5 furlongs so for that reason I would be willing to crank up DUNGANNON’s 6th placed run a notch or 2. It was an extremely difficult draw to win from and he did well to get so close and he did motor home once the gaps appeared; to only finish 2.5 lengths in arrears was a fine effort.

BDH(s) to follow…

DUNGANNON (6th) (A Balding)

This 6yo gelding put in some decent late work once the gaps appeared and whilst his finishing position probably doesn’t fully justify his effort it should be enough to keep him under the radar of most punters.

Possibly the most interesting angle with this horse is his current handicap mark of 88. That is a full 7lbs lower than his last winning mark and 2lbs lower than his 2nd highest winning mark. If we also consider the fact that he has run well from marks as high as 99 & 97 then it isn’t hard to make the assumption that he is currently sitting on a pretty handy mark.

It’s also interesting to note that all his wins have come when returning within 28 days or less of his last run (on Friday it was 32 days since his last run)…

Form when returning within 28 days of last run – 010061013571

Form when returning after a break of 29 days+ – 569252678055

He doesn’t necessarily run ‘poorly’ after longer breaks but the fact all his wins have come off shorter breaks suggests that ideally we want him on the track within a month.

He looks fairly adaptable when it comes to ground and to a certain extent distance (winning form over 5f, 6f & 7f) so his options should be open enough with regards to future targets. His handicap mark is clearly the most interesting aspect about him and I would be surprised if he can’t take advantage of it very soon, especially off the back of his run at Sandown last Friday.

Conditions – Ideally we are wanting him back on the track within the month, the 28 day window looks his optimum and there should be plenty of targets for him to be aimed at. He has winning form over 7f but personally I think 5f or 6f would be the ideal trips for him, again there should be plenty of openings for him within the next few weeks.

DUNGANNON now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

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Buckingham Palace Stakes Review: The future’s bright, the future’s Red…

Today we move onto the next race in our 2013 Royal Ascot reviews and our attention switches to the closing contest on Friday’s card; The Buckingham Palace Stakes…

Race in focus: 5.35 Ascot (21-06-2013) – Buckingham Palace Stakes (HANDICAP) 7f (27 ran)

How the race played out…

Buckingham Palace review

This was another race where the field split into 2 distinct groups (actually 3 groups for about a furlong); 12 stayed high up near the stands side and the other 15 stayed low. There was actually pace on both sides of the track but the high numbers had 2 runners (Shamaal Nibras & Mont Ras) vying for a clear lead as well as Dream Tune pushing closely in behind, the net result being this side were setting the strongest pace. The low numbers only really had one front-runner in the shape of Powerful Presence, a position he has not taken up in his recent runs and possibly the reason why the low numbers didn’t get into the race much. Highland Colori struggled a touch to get to the front from his wide draw and that could also be a reason for the lack of any real pace from the low stalls.

The end result…

There were a few career best’s and running close to their career best’s here so this does look like strong form.

With the high numbers dictating the pace it was the held up LIGHTNING STRIKE from stall 27 that  took advantage of things  and he swooped inside the final furlong to clinch the deal. The race unfolded perfectly in front of him and he was able to travel sweetly into contention and press on to a comfortable victory in the final 150yds. This was a career best performance and he has now been raised to a career high mark of 100. Second placed DREAM TUNE was right in the firing line for most of the race and was actually headed for 2nd before regaining the spot near the line. This was also a career best and he also now finds himself on a career high mark. Third placed SHAMAAL NIBRAS tried to lead his group for a bit and that maybe took its toll as he faded in the finish. Like the front 2 this was a career best and (yes, another one!) he finds himself on a career high mark. He may need the ground to soften a bit before he visits the winners enclosure again. Fourth placed SANTEFISIO was the first home from the other group and he met a bit of interference when making his run. It wouldn’t have effected his overall position but it is worth noting that he still ‘won’ on his side despite this. Again this was a career best run but he is starting to maybe look a bit held by the handicapper. Fifth home was ES QUE LOVE and this was a solid performance, albeit from the correct side of the draw. Sixth placed LOVING SPIRIT ran well from a good draw but he has only 1 win from 15 starts and although this was right up to form for him he is struggling to get his head in front. REDVERS was the next home from the far side group and 7th home overall. This was a solid run and a career best and it should be noted that he met with interference at around the 1 furlong marker. He was travelling strongly when not getting a clear passage and he looks to still be on the upgrade.

The high numbers really dominated this race with 6 of the first 8 home coming from that side. It will be no surprise to hear that I’m looking at the middle to low numbers for my  BDH to follow horse…

BDH(s) to follow…

REDVERS (7th) (E Vaughan)

This 5yo was possibly travelling best of all on the far side at around the 2 furlong pole but the doors starting shutting in front of him as the others tired and jockey George Baker had to get serious on him to find the gaps. By the time he got in the clear SANTEFISIO had stolen a march and had clinched top spot on their side. He was running off a career high mark of 95 here after a comfortable victory at Haydock on his last start but he seemed to cope with that weight rise just fine and fired in a career best run on RPR figures in the process.

A look into his form tells us that he is now approaching his prime time of the year. Here are his form figures in the month of July…

Redvers form in July – 1161

3 of his 5 career wins have come in July and there is obviously something he loves about the middle of summer.

I don’t think a straight track is a necessity for him as his form when running running round a left handed bend is pretty nifty…

Form running round a left-handed bend – 32111531

He clearly handles a straight track but I would also be more than interested if he were to line up on a left-handed track as well.

He does need to overcome a career high mark of 95 but the way he ran on Saturday suggests that should not be a massive problem. He has also only had 21 starts on turf so there should be room for some improvement still to come.

Conditions – Ideally we will be looking for a prime target for him in July. Ground wise I want at least Good ground for him. Other than that I think we can be fairly flexible although it goes without saying that if he is on a straight track we want him where the pace is at.

REDVERS now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool (horse tracker in other words) and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

The BDH war chest is growing nicely and I still have a couple of others up my sleeve from Royal Ascot yet to come. One of them can actually be found elsewhere on the Horse Racing Ireland website where I will be guest blogging once a month. In today’s article I take a look at the Jersey Stakes and pinpoint one for us to follow.

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Ben (BDH)

3.05 Ascot (18-06-13) – KING’S STAND STAKES (GROUP 1) 5f (19 ran)

It was safe to say we had a fantastic end to Royal Ascot 2013! As if Lethal Force romping home in the Diamond Jubilee wasn’t reward enough we were then blessed with the dual attack of York Glory & Dinkum Diamond streaking home in 1st & 3rd in the 26 runner Wokingham!

York Glory was the first ever BDH horse and this was his first run since I highlighted him as 1 to follow, indeed he is the first ever BDH horse to run subsequent to me highlighting them (well I guess he and Dinkum Diamond share that honour!); it really was a fantastically memorable day.

I also want to say a big thanks to you guys. You have obviously taken the methods in use at BDH to heart and that is by far the best endorsement I can get. The many tweets, comments, facebook messages and emails from you lot have been gratefully received.

Last weeks Royal Ascot action gives us plenty of straight track action to tuck into and source future York Glory’s for our punting pleasure. My plan is to review a number of those races this week and add more horses to our BDH to follow list.

For the record York Glory will now be removed from the BDH list as his form is now clear for all to see. That doesn’t mean I won’t back him in the future and I’m certainly not saying to you guys to not back him, far from it. The idea here on BDH is to look for runners that ran well from bad draws and look for spots in their following runs where we can back them under more favourable conditions. For York Glory that was Saturday and he has done the business for us in fine style. If I back him in future runs it will be for other reasons than he was a BDH horse. He was well drawn on  Saturday, took advantage of that and landed us a punt; job done.

The first Royal Ascot review race is the King’s Stand Stakes from last Tuesday…

Race in focus: 3.05 Ascot (18-06-2013): King’s Stand Stakes – 5f, Group 1 (19 ran)

How the race played out…

Kings Stand Stakes

As you can see from the pace map there was a bit of a middle to high pace bias in play here, the low numbers realized this quite early on and the field almost congregated as one down the middle in the early stages. Joseph O’Brien made the decision to stick to the rail from his high draw and was the only runner to do this, as such you can completely ignore his run as he spent the entire race in a wide no-mans-land.  I wouldn’t say it was a huge draw/pace bias at play here but horses down the bottom (low stalls) were the most inconvenienced by how the pace did play out.

Bungle inthejungle was the one from low to middle that could have set them a decent pace to aim at but he seemed to struggle with the early pace and as such didn’t act as much of a pace-setter at all.

The end result…

For the winner SOLE POWER the pace played into his hands to a certain extend and there was plenty happening in front of him to tow him into the race for his late charge, whilst at the same time the runners fanned out enough to give him late space and a straight blast to the line.  Second placed SHEA SHEA made the most of an average draw and didn’t get as good a tow into the contest from Bungle inthejungle as he probably would have hoped. It was a fine effort and he was unlucky not to collect the spoils. He is a real Group 1 animal and it was his class that got him so close to the prize from his unfavourable draw. Third placed PEARL SECRET was ideally placed in stall 10 to come from off the pace and this was a solid effort on reappearance. Fourth placed JACK DEXTER had the same problem as Shea Shea but he is a real hold-up horse and the lack of pace down their side was even more detrimental to his chances. He needs to come off a strong pace and he really didn’t get that down his side so this was a commendable effort indeed.

BDH(s) to follow…

JACK DEXTER (4th) (J Goldie)

The performance of Jim Goldie’s 4yo was eye-catching for 3 reasons…

1) He had an average draw and no real pace to aim at

2) The race was run on ground that would not have been ideal for him

3) There must be a train of thought that he is better over 6f and possibly even 7f

We have already touched on the first point and as mentioned this was a mighty run considering he likes to come through horses off a strong pace, which he didn’t get here.

On the 2nd point consider this if you will; ALL 6 of his career wins have been gained of SOFT or HEAVY ground. On Saturday they were riding on officially GOOD ground and previous form tells us that would not have been his optimum.

Let’s look at his ground form figures…

Form on Good or better ground – 3700454

Form on Good to Soft ground – 26

Form on Soft or worse ground – 111111

Unbeaten on the soft stuff! They were not all ‘run of the mill’ races either. Within that form line is a trio of valuable races worth upwards of 20k to the winner.

If we look at his distance form lines we also see that his form over 6f & 7f is slightly more eye-catching than his 6f form…

Form over 5f – 3714

Form over 6f – 115410106

Form over 7f – 21

It isn’t as strong an argument as his ground preference but the longer races give him a bit more time to reach top gear and finish with a rattle.

This run was also his first step into Group 1 company, a step up he took with what looked like consummate ease.

Such was the close and dramatic finish of this race by the front 2 I can see Jim Goldie’s horse being overlooked a bit here, hopefully keeping his price up for future assignments.

Conditions – I think what we really want for him is a bit of cut in the ground. Soft and Heavy are a big YES for him but I would also have him in mind on Good to Soft conditions as well. I have a feeling that conditions with cut in them not only bring out the best in him but also blunt the finishing power of the others in front of him, allowing him to pick them off late. He clearly also needs to be draw on the side with pace so he can get a tow into the race. 

He looks a similar type to Goldie’s other hold-up style sprinter Hawkeyethenoo so we can be confident that ‘Big Jim’ will also place this lad to his best abilities. We may have to wait for the ground to start turning again before we get our money down although this is Britain, the next downpour may well be just around the corner!

JACK DEXTER now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool (horse tracker in other words) and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

I will be back again tomorrow with another Royal Ascot review as I continue to build our BDH war chest…

Free Guides & Updates

If you want to receive regular updates and download an array of free guides from BDH/NTF then please visit the following page and join the growing community –

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On joining you will be sent a link to download a multitude of FREE GUIDES, including free horse racing tips, pointers, guides and free horse racing betting systems.

(If you are a current NTF member then you can ignore this message)

Ben (BDH)