BDH Arc De Triomphe Review + NTF Subscription News…

Treve. The new wonder-filly!

Wow! That was some performance from Treve wasn’t it? She blew the others away in scintillating fashion and is rightly receiving plaudits left, right and centre.

As always I like to give a run over my own figures once the dust has settled and despite not personally lumping on the winner I can’t complain with the performance of my shortlist…

BDH Arc Shortlist

(*TS=Trends Score)

TREVE – TS 17/19 – Winner at 48/10

LEADING LIGHT – TS 17/19 – 12th at 14-1

NOVELLIST – 17/19

INTELLO – TS 16/19 – 3rd at 10-1

RULER OF THE WORLD – TS 16/19 – 7th at 12-1

FLINTSHIRE – TS 16/19 – 8th at 20-1

That is a decent performance in my eyes and a fine example of how my Trends & Dosage combined figures work to create strong short-lists.

I personally only got a return on the Each-Way part of my Intello bet but the figures held up well and that is always a positive sign.

To be fair the figures have been spot on most of the summer, through from Address Unknown in the Chester Cup, to Talent in the Oaks and yesterday with Treve in the Arc. Those 3 were notable highlights for me in a different way. I personally didn’t back them but I know that a number of you did by using my own shortlist to form your own selections. I very much consider myself an analyst rather than a tipster so the fact you guys are able to use my in-depth work to come to your own conclusions makes me equally as happy as backing a winner myself.

Anyway, I digress, back to the Arc.

TREVE was simply outstanding. Hopefully she returns to defend her crown next year. It will take an almighty performance to win 2 Arc’s on the bounce but after that run it wouldn’t really be a surprise! She is very exciting if kept in training.

ORFEVRE ran a sound race to finish 2nd again and not much needs said about him to be fair; he ran like the horse we know he is. I would be surprised if he can go 1 better next year and it is more likely that he joins Youmzain as a triple Arc runner-up.

I thought INTELLO ran a fine race at his first try at the trip and I have no doubt he stays it. It may not be his best trip though as he is a strong traveler and may just be better coming off a strong pace over 1m2f. Word is he may well go off to stud now so, unfortunately, that may be it for him anyway.

AL KAZEEM ran a sound race in 6th and although not matching what he has done so far this season it was a decent effort under conditions that didn’t really suit.

RULER OF THE WORLD is the puzzler for me. He was in the thick of the action until turning for home when all of a sudden he found himself dropping almost to the back…then he picked up, flew home and finished 7th! Could it be he doesn’t like to be crowded in amongst horses? He doesn’t look the biggest of 3yo’s and things did get a bit rough turning for home with horses making challenges all around him. If we think back to when he landed the spoils for us in the Epsom Derby he made his move round the outside that day and had relative space to unleash his challenge. This was the largest field he has faced and after that I’m just inclined to think he maybe needs space to perform to his best and doesn’t thrive on being amongst runners. I guess his Prix Niel run would counteract that argument but it wasn’t quite as rough a race and there were less runners. Whatever the case he is a very interesting horse for next year (if kept in training) but I will be keeping an eye on that roughshod theory of mine!

I thought FLINTSHIRE did well enough in 8th on ground that really would not have suited and he is another that is of maximum interest next season, especially when racing on less testing ground. I have a feeling there is more to come from him as a 4yo.

All in all it was a thoroughly enjoyable race to watch and it was won by a filly who produced a performance right out of the top drawer. Can she land 2 Arc’s on the trot though? That is the million dollar question…

NTF National Hunt Service

I know plenty of you are itching to get on with the jumping stuff so here is the good news…

Doors to my 2013/14 National Hunt service will be opening this week!

Firstly to previous members (Wednesday). Then to members of my FREE NTF list (Friday). Then (if places remain) to everyone else (Monday 14th).

If you do want to join the full service then I seriously advise you to get your name on the FREE NTF list. Not only will this guarantee you a place on the service but you will also be able to join for the discounted rate.

On joining the FREE list you will also be able to download my free 90+ day October trainers guide (highlighted 3 winners yesterday!).

I will also be unleashing my ’20 to follow’ list tomorrow (Tuesday) which gives you a group of ‘under the radar’ horses I expect to win plenty of races this 2013/14 season.

*Spoiler Alert* There are NO Henderson, Nicholls or Mullins horses on this list!!

Make sure you don’t miss out on all this by joining the FREE list HERE >>> Join the FREE NTF list

Ben (BDH/NTF)

p.s. Want to know what is in the NTF 2013/14 service? Think of this summer here on BDH but think BIGGER, BETTER and MORE!

I’m really excited about this forthcoming National Hunt season…

Epsom Derby Meeting Day 2: Dosage & Trends Analysis

Day 2 of the Epsom Derby meeting and it’s the big one; The Investec Derby!

I have 2 races under scrutiny today for you lot but before I give you the guide it’s well worth taking a look back at yesterday’s proceedings.

We started with Diomed Stakes and our fate was known on Producer before he even entered the stalls as it looked for all money that he wouldn’t go in and was being unusually mule-ish. He did eventually load in the stalls but the amount of energy used up behind the stalls probably lost him his race, it was also far from ideal that Hughes made a scoot for home as they turned Tattenham Corner, an odd move and ultimately the horse petered out to be a 4 length 4th. The other horse on the short-list, Penitent, ran a solid race in 2nd.

The Investec Mile, although not nailing the winner, actually turned out to be a really solid race for the guide.

Here is how the short-list fared…

HI THERE – 8th at 8-1

OCEAN TEMPEST – 3rd at 10/1

LEVITATE – 4th at 8/1

BENZANNO – 5th at 15/2

LORD OF THE SHADOWS – 2nd at 16/1

Lord Of The Shadows only went down by 1/2 a length in the end and met trouble in-running 2f out and also stumbled slightly 1f out. It may not have been the difference between winning and losing but it’s worth noting and the run did at least back up my notion he is very well handicapped on old form.

The Oaks was the 3rd race for us and it was a bit like Chester Cup deja bloody vu for me! 4 on the short-list, I went for 2 of them, the other 2 finished 1st & 2nd!! The consolation being that the figures were spot-on, the downside being that my bank-balance does not reflect it!

Here is how the short-list fared…

LIBER NAUTICUS – 5th at 4-1

TALENT – 1st at 20/1 (BFSP 26.61)

BANOFFEE – 7th at 7/1

SECRET GESTURE – 2nd at 3/1

The other consolation being that I know some of you profited from the figures, so well done if you went with Talent 🙂

In the end the guide performed really well and I’m more than happy with how the figures panned out.

On to today and we start with the fiendishly tricky Epsom Dash. The pace looks to be coming from all over the track and although the low numbers hold the real speedsters there are enough up the top end to make it an even spread. Regardless of the result I’ll be reviewing the race closely to see if there were any hard luck stories from a draw/pace angle and will be reporting back next week.

The Derby is our 2nd race and the big question is about Dawn Approach’s stamina. To me the real question isn’t ‘Does Dawn Approach have enough stamina to see out the trip?’ but more ‘Are there other runners in the race who have stronger staying credentials than the favourite?’ and if yes ‘Does Dawn Approach have enough in the way of class to counteract the stronger stayers?’.

The answer isn’t a clear one to be honest. Yes, there are likely to be stronger stayers in the race. Yes, Dawn Approach looks to be head and shoulders above the others in terms of class. It may be enough to counteract the stronger stayers in a normal run race but we also have to factor in the Ballydoyle spoilers out front, who are sure to set off like their arse is on fire!. They have often made a muck up of the pace tactics in the past but they will get it spot on one day…

The truth is I can see a situation where Dawn Approach romps away with this race, however, there are enough questions marks and spoilers in there for me to look elsewhere at his current odds…

It is all in today’s guide, which you can download from the link below…

*Ocovango Dosage figures updated 11.30 am

>>>Epsom Derby Day Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with me here, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize into your own thoughts and workings.

Happy Derby day punting however you decide to put the guide to use.

Ben (BDH)

Epsom Derby Meeting Day 1: Dosage & Trends Analysis

Which of today’s fillies will fill the shoes of Was?

Classic time again this weekend and I’m taking another dive into the top class action on offer and giving it the full Trends and Dosage shakedown!

Today I’m tackling 3 races; The Diomed Stakes, The Investec Mile and the big one of the day The Investec Oaks.

You can download the full analysis guide, for FREE, from the following link –

>>>NTF Epsom Derby meeting Day 1 Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with me here, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize into your own thoughts and workings.

Happy punting however you decide to put the guide to use.

p.s. I’m starting to pull together the BDH Trend Horses page so give it a look when you get a chance (click tab in menu bar above).

Ben (BDH)