BDH weekend review & Monday qualifier…

Time for Waking Warrior to turn into the Ultimate Warrior!!

Just a quick post from me today with a review of our weekend runners as well as my thoughts on a sneaky wee BDH qualifier that runs at Thirsk today…

BDH Weekend Runners Review…

315 Newbury – TAWHID – The ground just didn’t come in time for him and he ran as I expected. The jockeys were all reporting that after the first couple of races the ground was riding just on the fast side of good and visually, to me anyway, it didn’t look like the rain had gotten into the ground enough for our boy. As I have already mentioned we will get him at the end of the season when the rain comes, his performances on ground that isn’t ideal for him tells me there is plenty talent in there.

330 Ripon – BACCARAT – Winner! One run as a member of our squad and 1 win! We can now release him back into the wild! He was drafted in to do a job for us and that’s exactly what he did. I’m obviously not saying I won’t be backing him again in the future but for the sake of our BDH squad his job is now done and he is off the list. Good stuff Bacca, your work is much appreciated.

My value cover in the race, RODRIGO DE TORRES, ran a stormer to finish 3rd at 33/1 and landed some tasty each-way sheckles for me. Assuming the handicapper leaves him alone he looks feasibly handicapped at present and the young claimer on top is certainly a bonus.

350 Newbury – DANCE AND DANCE – He is a frustrating bugger but a frustrating bugger that will hopefully land us a decent pot before the season is out. He ‘won’ ‘his’ race but unfortunately the progressive winner was in his own race, on his own, out front. I certainly think a return to a mile will suit D&D as he did seem to have plenty in the tank as he raced for the line. 7/1 second wasn’t a bad result considering and will have rewarded any each-way backers (for the record I was not one of those).

415 Doncaster – DUNGANNON – Needed the run? Quite possibly. That was my one worry beforehand and he certainly seemed to flatten out at about the area where fitness may have become an issue. Lets hope he is back on the track within those all important 30 days…

TAWHID, DANCE AND DANCE and DUNGANNON stay in the squad. BACCARAT drops of the list with a perfect 100% record for the team. Good lad.

BDH Monday Qualifier: Waking Warrior – 3.00 Thirsk

A sneaky one for us today as we have WAKING WARRIOR in the 3.00 at Thirsk going into battle for us. Walking Warrior was highlighted by myself in a guest post I did for the Make Your Betting Pay website.

Our boy is actually still a maiden on turf after 23 runs (yikes!) but he has run plenty of solid races in defeat, including some decent performances at the track. He should have plenty speed to aim at here today and his young jockey (who is 3 wins from his last 6 rides) knows him well.

It is a competitive enough field today (for the grade) but our lad has a decent chance and on a light betting day I’m willing to take a chance on him. He is running much better than the bare form suggests and I’m confident he will break that turf duck sooner rather than later!

I may have another runner to replace the departing Baccarat once I have done a full review of the weekends action, if so I will post on here in the next couple of days.

With the York Ebor Festival rolling into action on Wednesday I will also have a couple of BDH guides available for you all here on the Blog, probably the Nunthorpe and the Ebor itself, both races I like to get stuck into.

Ben (BDH)

Rocking to the Knavesmire Beat with an early Ebor fancy …

Is Tropical ready to Beat all-comers in the Ebor?

The 2013 York Ebor Festival rumbles into action on the Knavesmire next week and I’ll be covering a handful of the races here on the BDH Blog for your punting delights.

The highlight of the week is the Ebor itself, run on the Saturday over the stamina testing 1m6f trip. I know it’s not a straight track blitz race but it does provide some strong race trends and is a race I like getting my teeth into.

There is still a mass of entries in the valuable handicap and although I’m not a huge ante-post player (not by any stretch of the imagination) I do like taking an early look at some of the major races and, at the very least, getting my eye in on who is most likely to fit the trends.

With over a week until the tapes go up for the contest we obviously don’t yet know the draw, what the ground will be like and the pace angle (as in how the race is likely to shape up). It should also be noted that on the wider trends front there will be some horses that won’t qualify if we did the trends now but may well qualify when the trends are applied once the final field is know. Nevertheless I have taken 5 of the strongest Ebor trends from my own research and applied them to the current entries to see if anything stands out at us.

The trends I have used are…

15/15 had an OR of 102 & below

14/15 finished in the top 2 on 1 of their last 3 starts

13/15 were aged 3, 4 or 5 (other 2 were 6yo)

13/15 were (IRE) or (GB) bred

12/15 ran within the past 26 days

Surprisingly that chops the huge field down into only the following 10 ‘contenders’…

Montaser | Tropical Beat | Plinth | Duke Of Clarence | Clowance Estate | Noble Silk | Renew | Homeric | Arch Villain | Party Line

From that motley crew the one that interests me the most is the David O’Meara trained TROPICAL BEAT.

He runs off a mark of 97 here (officially 2lbs ‘well in’) and after only 11 turf starts there is plenty reason to believe he has improvement still to come. His last run at Musselburgh was his first of the season and also his first for O’Meara and it isn’t hard to think that he will come on plenty for the outing.

He has placed form at the track and over the trip, looks fairly adaptable with regards to ground (yet to face softer than Good to Soft admittedly) and handles large fields.

He has form lines that tie in with some decent animals and with the Musselburgh race likely to have gotten him cherry ripe for this he looks a value proposition at this stage. Oh yeah, his Dosage figures also sit kindly with previous winners as well.

Things may well change dramatically once I apply the full might of the BDH ‘Trosage’ machine but for now I’m pretty keen on the chances of TROPICAL BEAT.

A general 25/1 looks a fair price at this stage.

Resumption of NTF…

Yes it’s that time of the year again. The time of the year where the National Hunt big guns will be filing back into their respective National Hunt yards ready to resume full training, or at least starting to shed the summer poundage they may have accumulated over the last few months.

That also means that NTF will be starting to rev it’s engines and getting ready to burst out of it’s summer slumber!

I’ve already got an excellent guest blogger lined up for you for the start of next month and I’ll also be supplying the members of the FREE NTF list with a sprinkling of FREE NTF guides to get their National Hunt juices well and truly flowing.

If you are already a member of the free NTF service then you need do nothing more. If you’re not and you want to grab the free guides when they are ready then a quick sign up at the following page – www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/free-ntf-guides-and-e-books – is all it takes.

I can almost see that Cheltenham hill appearing on the horizon, almost…

Ben (BDH/NTF)