BDH Qualifier: Approved on an All-Weather Mission…

We make a first trip onto the all-weather with our BDH squad as one of our recent additions tackles the polytrack at Kempton’s evening meeting…

BDH Runner: MISSION APPROVED 8.45 Kempton (AW)

To be fair this wasn’t really the area I was hoping he would be tackling but we will roll with it.

He is back up to 6f for today’s assignment which should be perfectly fine and he has run well at the track on his only other visit; 2nd over 7f as a 2yo. He does have a victory on the Lingfield all-weather so as far as the underfoot surface goes I don’t think we have any worries.

On his last start at Sandown he finished a neck behind Dungannon and we all know what Dunny did on his next start! Joe Packet who finished 7th in that Sandown race came out and ran a decent 5th at Doncaster last week and ran to a mark of 91 (on RPR figures) so the early signs are that the Sandown race is working out quite well from a form perspective.

This race signifies a small drop in class for our lad and as I think there is still plenty improvement to come I would be disappointed if he doesn’t get involved in the finish of this race. At around 4-1 I’m happy to back him. Hopefully he wins this then they go looking for a turf ‘mission’ before the season is out.

NTF Analysis

The Kerry National takes place today at Listowel and I have a full Dosage & Trends breakdown of the race over on NTF…

>>>Kerry National Analysis available on NTF

Best of luck if you get involved today

Ben (BDH)

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BDH Weekend Review: Job Dun!

Well that was a pretty good weekend!

4 BDH qualifiers – 2 winners. For good measure the Haydock Sprint Cup winner was also thrown into the mix; good work GLB.

When reviewing the weekends action for my own records I also, naturally, kept my BDH brain in full recruitment mode as I look to replace and strengthen our squad. Unfortunately nothing instantly stood out at me and I won’t add new members just for the sake of it. That would be pointless and a sure way to eek into our profits.

I have a couple of potentials in mind but I want to review the action again with a fresh mind, possibly tonight or tomorrow, and do a bit more digging into their previous form.

For now, however, I’ll give you my thoughts on our 4 weekend runners and where we go from here with them…

Weekend BDH runners…

BDH Runner: REDVERS 1.55 Ascot – 1st at BFSP 10.37

He was drawn with pace round about him and jockey Richard Kingscote gave him a superb ride, hooking behind the pace on his side instead of right out the back and cruising into contention in style; job was a good ‘un.

As far as I’m concerned for our BDH list it is “thanks and good-bye, we will call again if your services are required”. As always that doesn’t mean I won’t back him in the future but for now he drops off the BDH list after doing the job we employed him for; securing us some tasty profits!

Good lad Redvers and best of luck going forward.

BDH Runner: WAKING WARRIOR 2.00 Thirsk – 6th at BFSP 12.5

The Kevin Ryan horse always seemed to be climbing a slippy slope here and that has to go down primarily to the draw. I thought it may be tricky from his berth but I maybe gave too much credence to its effect being lessened over the furlong further. Lesson learned and for now he stays in our squad.

I want to see him get a real shot at a race from a decent draw before making a solid assessment of his position in our squad.

BDH Runner: TAWHID 2.40 Haydock – 4th at BFSP 4.92

Hmmmmm…Tawhid…hmmmmmm. Either Mosse got the tactics wrong or the tactics he was given were wrong. The horse maybe didn’t help himself too much either but the facts are he managed to meet trouble in-running and wasn’t really able show his true potential. Once in the clear, and the race was over, he looked to have plenty left to give.

I learned nothing from this run, which is a shame as he had his ground on this occasion and should have been able to show more. He stays on the list for now.

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON 5.10 Ascot 1st at BFSP 4.74

This played out perfectly for Dunny and he made no mistake this time. I was a bit concerned by the price beforehand but I managed to get 5.5 on the exchanges about 15-20 mins before the off and I was happy with that; the more I looked at the race through the day the more convinced I became that he was going to win. (I tweeted 10 mins before the off that I had backed him, for transparency’s sake).

I see no need to keep him in our squad from here on in and like Redvers we say goodbye to Dunny after his well-timed victory at Ascot.

Good job Dunny, job well done, we may well see you back in the squad at some time in the future…

The other race covered by myself was the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup…

Haydock Sprint Cup

GORDON LORD BYRON did the job in fantastic style for us and that my friends is how you win a Group 1 contest! Impressive! To be fair he had his conditions but regardless of that fact it was an almighty performance.

In the end I only went with Heeraat as my cover bet, viewing of the ground from earlier races put me off Lethal Force as did his ever diminishing price. My own pace notes suggested he wouldn’t get an easy lead and that mixed with the softened ground just didn’t sit well with me as we approached the off. It is safe to say his run shouldn’t be taken at face value, he is waaaay better than the end result and conditions simply did not play to his strengths.

Heeraat ran a very poor race but his jockey Paul Hanagan did report after the race that his mount had ‘lost it’s action’ so we maybe also shouldn’t take his run at face value either.

In the end this was all about GLB though and he confirmed that when conditions are tilted towards him he is a serious player in the Group 1 sprinting division.

BDH Handicap Sleepers…

Some of you probably noticed that one of the handicap sleepers in my recent FREE guide was running at York yesterday; TIGER REIGNS in the 3.35. You will also have hopefully noted he was clearly a ‘no-bet’.

The field size was way outside his comfort zone and he was also running over a trip that was 2.5 furlongs longer than his optimum; he finished a comfortable 41 lengths behind the winner in 18th place!

Personally I’m happy with that. That should see another drop down the ratings from Mr Handicapper and it should also see him start at some juicy odds next time out. Hopefully connections will find a race that meets requirements on his next start (if you have the guide you know what they are), I really think he can land something at lofty odds when he gets his conditions…

Closing thoughts for the day…

Back to the main BDH list and if I see a potential new addition to our squad to replace Redvers and Dungannon then I will fire up a Blog post later in the week with all the details.

I’m also now getting properly stuck into the National Hunt game behind the scenes as I start work on the NTF National Hunt service 2013/14. I’ll hopefully still be blogging as regularly as usual on here but if not you know the reason why…

Ben (BDH)

GLB to land the Group 1 spoils for BDH?

GLB to take the G1 spoils today?

A potentially very busy day for us on Saturday here on BDH with 4 of our attack squad entered to run at various venues up and down the country. I also want to take a quick look at the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup as it features plenty of runners we have had dealings with this summer, and as a fan of consistency it makes sense to cover the race, using trends and pace as our main weapons into the contest.

As is often the case at this ‘changing’ time of the year the weather is likely to play a crucial part in proceedings with rain forecast at both Haydock & Ascot. Looking at the forecast it could be that the north gets a decent lashing in good old fashioned stair rods style! Haydock got a weather beatdown yesterday and whilst that is hopefully the worst of it out of the way it’s best to keep an eye on any potential (probable?) changes in the underfoot conditions.

Before I tuck into the Group 1 sprint action lets first cover our BDH runners…

BDH Runner: REDVERS 1.55 Ascot

Enough in his favour to warrant our interest in him here. He looks to have a good slot in stall 5 as there seems to be plenty of potential pace around about him and he should be able to sit out the back and make his usual late move.

He never really got into the race last time out over C&D but he has had a wee freshen up since then and at tasty enough odds I’m on, probably with a bit of E/W cover.

BDH Runner: WAKING WARRIOR 2.00 Thirsk

Like last time at Thirsk he is drawn low, which is a small concern, however, this time it is over a furlong further so comes with slightly less of a worry. His form at the track is solid (26239) although this is the first time he has tackled the Thirsk 6f, something which I think will suit him.

There is enough in his favour to make him of interest but it is going to have to be with each-way cover, that draw niggles me a bit and at the end of the day we are dealing with a horse who is still a maiden on the flat. I do think 6 furlong here will suit him, as will the softened ground.

I’ll have a punt E/W on him and I’ll be hoping for him to flash home late under Mulrennan

BDH Runner: TAWHID 2.40 Haydock

Good to Soft with the potential for more rain makes the Godolphin runner an obvious bet, based solely on my previous comments about him. Looks a winnable race and Mosse is certainly an interesting booking. I’m happy to take a punt and at the projected odds, I’m on.

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON 5.10 Ascot

First things first that is a crap price for a horse who hasn’t won for a while, racing in a field of this size. There is a bit of the Dance And Dance’s about this! I’m not seeing much bang for my buck here, that is a concern.

There is, however, plenty in his favour and he is one of the better handicapped runners in the field, I can’t crib that too much. Draw wise he also seems to have more than enough pace around him to hook onto a swoop late, again I can’t quibble with that.

I would like to back him but I think I’m going to need to see a wee bit of a drift first before getting involved. For now I’m hanging fire and will watch and see how the market unfolds…

Now onto the Group 1 sprint action of the day…

Betfred Sprint Cup – Haydock 3.50

…and what better way to start than with the pace map…

Haydock Sprint CupThe above tells us that there looks a fairly heavy leaning towards the middle to low stalls for the pace angle and those drawn around 10+ may not have much to aim at on their side.

LETHAL FORCE & HEERAAT should set the pace from the low numbers with HAMZA in stall 7 also likely to try and get in on the pace-setting duties.

On the trends angle this would not be a race I would be getting overly deep in with regards to the trends, however, I have applied what I would consider to be 6 of the strongest trends to give us a way into the contest.

The trends I have used for today are…

1. 13/14 recorded a top 2 finish in current season

2. 12/14 were aged 3-5

3. 12/14 ran in a Group race LTO

4. 11/14 recorded a top 3 finish LTO

5. 11/14 started in the top 3 in the market LTO

6. 10/14 had previously finished in the top 3 at Group 1 level

Applying those trends to today’s field gives us…

Horse

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total

Lethal Force

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

6/6

Gordon Lord Byron

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

6/6

Heeraat

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Hamza

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Garswood

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Slade Power

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

5/6

Reckless Abandon

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

4/6

Rex Imperator

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

4/6

Swiss Spirit

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

4/6

Kavanagh

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

3/6

Kingsgate Native

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

3/6

Intense Pink

N

Y

Y

N

N

N

2/6

Tiddliwinks

N

N

Y

N

N

N

1/6

Hoof It

N

N

N

N

N

Y

1/6

Soul

N

N

N

N

Y

N

1/6

Hawkeyethenoo

N

N

N

N

N

N

0/6

Looking at the top end we get a workable shortlist of LETHAL FORCE, GORDON LORD BYRON (GLB), HEERAAT, HAMZA, GARSWOOD & SLADE POWER.

If I have read the draw correct then SOUL POWER may have a bit to do from his draw and I’m happy to drop him from the shortlist.

Personally I wouldn’t be convinced HAMZA is a Group 1 beast so I’m also happy to drop him from calculations.

GARSWOOD dropping to 6f doesn’t convince me and draw is also leaning towards being a slight negative for him as well, personally I’m happy to pass him over for today.

That leaves 3 – LETHAL FORCE, GLB & HEERAAT.

I’m happy to take a punt on Gordon Lord Byron. Underfoot conditions will suit, the trip is ideal and he has Group 1 form to his name, he will carry my money.

I’ll possibly/probably also look to have savers on one or both of LETHAL FORCE & HEERAAT. LF is the dominate force in the sprinting division and it was no shame to be put in his place by Moonlight Cloud last time out. Softening ground is a wee concern but if it stays Good to Soft he should be OK. HEERAAT needs to improve but there does look improvement there. If there is a tasty priced winner he could be it.

Busy day ahead and best of luck if you are getting involved.

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Ben (BDH)

BDH Saturday runners: Dunny ready to do the business?

Google tells me this scary little fella is also called Dunny!?

Two of our BDH squad take to the field on Saturday so no time for any wiffle-waffle, lets get stuck into my thoughts on them both…

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON – 205 Sandown

Fist things first we have him back on the track within that all important 28 day window; 17 days since his last start will do just dandy.

Back down at 5 furlongs is also a good move in my opinion; that will do just fine for me as well.

Ground should be OK and track configuration should also be within the ballpark.

Draw, however, I have a wee question mark. I don’t think middle is ideal in large fields at Sandown over the 5f. To be honest I think straight track blitzes at Sandown are tricky, they don’t always play out how I expect them to. However, lets take it that this one will play out like normal I have the pace coming from the high stalls (boxes 12 & 13) and that should, hopefully, play to the hands of our boy DUNGANNON.

At the projected 10-1 odds I’ll have a bit of him each-way. He is well handicapped and is returning within the correct time-frame; it’s time for Dunny to do the business for us!

BDH Runner: THUNDERBALL- 255 Chester

In my own words…

“Essentially we are looking for 6 furlongs and soft” – Here we have 7 and 1/2 furlongs and Good!

“He is yet to prove he is up to winning a really valuable contest (20k+) but if he gets his conditions it would not be hard to see him running well in such a race” – This is worth 28k to the winner and he doesn’t look to have conditions!

“4 of his 5 turf wins have come on a straight track and although that condition isn’t a necessity it probably is preferable” – This is round the tight Left-Handed Chester track!

His stall draw would be average as well.

Yeah I think I will leave him here to be honest!!

If he somehow wins this you will probably hear my yells of “How the F**K did he win that” from wherever you are in the universe!!

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

FREE BDH Handicap Sleepers Guide

Hopefully you all managed to download the free guide I sent out yesterday. If you haven’t yet then find yesterday’s email that I sent out and grab the guide now, it’s well worth your time (if I don’t say so myself).

As you will have noticed there were 2 qualifiers from the guide running on Friday but neither of them were running under preferred conditions (so no bet). Both soundly beaten as well so an even bigger and better price on offer (hopefully!) when they do meet their ideal conditions next time.

If you want to grab this in-depth and FREE guide (all 21 pages of it!!) then head to the following page and pop your details into the sign-up form…

>>>Register for your FREE BDH Handicap Sleepers Guide

*The FREE Guide is on the FREE BDH Guides page not the Free NTF Guides page. Both links will be sent to you in the same email.

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

BDH Sandown Review: Gannon’s not Dun yet….

An interesting couple of days for us over the weekend and before I crack into the review of the 5f sprint at Sandown from Friday I just want to tidy up a few loose ends.

Starting with…

DOCTOR PARKES

As far as his role as a BDH runner is concerned it’s job done and thank you very much. On Friday he was very much a ‘well drawn horse’ and he rewarded us all at some very tasty prices. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does but for the purposes of this here blog he happily moves off the BDH list. Good job Doc.

DUKE OF FIRENZE

I think what Duke of Firenze (I’m going to call him DOF from now on!) confirmed to me on Saturday was that he needs the big fields to produce his best. Small fields tend to congregate and cluster up into 1 group, causing plenty of traffic jams for hold-up runners, such as DOF. In large field races the runners tend to fan out at the end of the race and gaps appear between runners as the petrol gauge starts to flicker on empty, gaps that Duke of Firenze obviously loves coming through in the closing stages. When the runners are spread across the track they naturally open up and fan out as the energy levels drop in the closing stages, this is where I feel Duke Of Firenze can be seen at his best.

He certainly met plenty trouble in-running on Saturday and he was hindered at least twice when looking to make forward moves. As mentioned this is more likely to happen in small fields when they cluster up so as frustrating as it is, it also isn’t surprising.

For now he remains on the BDH list.

Now onto the meat of today’s post…

Race in focus: 2.20 Sandown (05-07-2013) – LONDON’S RACE TRACKS RACINGANDMUSIC.CO.UK HANDICAP (Class 3 Handicap) 5f (14ran)

How the race played out…

Doctor Parkes Sandown Race 05-07

As is generally the case with sprints at Sandown it is the runners drawn low and up with the pace that come out on top and it was no different in this contest. There was some fine analysis pre-race on Racing UK by Eddie ‘the shoe’ Fremantle about the effect of the draw at Sandown over the 5f trip, where he pointed out the advantage of being drawn in the low stalls. He himself had walked the track before the race and stated that there was a distinct advantage, in his opinion, to those drawn low. That was purely from him having walked the track and tested the underfoot conditions himself. As it turns out he was spot on and it was also something I had indicated in my Blog post on Friday. It is very much something to keep in mind when punting in these types of races at Sandown although obviously the bias is somewhat negated in the smaller fields (7 or less runners).

The pace map tells us that the pace was set by FAIR VALUE in the 6 box and he tracked across to the far rail early on. DOCTOR PARKES got a good break from the 2 box and that allowed jockey Neil Callan to position him just where he wanted him, something that proved pivotal in his victory. JOE PACKET didn’t break quite as well and he was maybe just a quarter step behind where he wanted to be for most of the race, nevertheless he was still in a decent posi compared to some. Possibly the most interesting aspect of the pace was the fact that the top 5 stalls (boxes 10-15) all made the early decision to switch in behind the pack and run held-up. That isn’t too unexpected as they all generally run that way anyway but in truth it was also their only real option from their unfavorable draws. Unfortunately it was also a moved that severely compromised their chances. Of the 5 of them the smartest riding came from Thomas Brown on STEPS who kept his mount on the outer of the main group, leaving him room to try and bullet home late with an unblocked passage (ooh er missus!). He did, however, have the ‘best’ of the wide draws and was in a prime slot to make that decision.

The end result…

The winner DOCTOR PARKES was well drawn, in the prime position throughout and took full advantage. This was a good performance and he won fairly readily in the end. He will possibly now be pushing on to a mark that he will start to struggle with, as always it will be interesting to see the handicappers reaction. Second placed JOE PACKET possibly didn’t get the best start and had to fight his way back into it a bit but it was a solid run and there is every suggestion that he can win from this mark. He may just be better suited to being stepped back up to 6f. Third placed STEPS ran a very sound race from out wide, he was one that didn’t have a great draw but the fact he stayed wide probably benefited him as he had a clear passage to the line. He is running from a career high mark at the minute but still remains competitive, it is a close call whether the handicapper has him in his grip or not; personally I would like to see him dropped just a couple of lbs. FAIR VALUE gave it fair effort from the front but just couldn’t keep the closer’s at bay and faded slightly in the final yards into fourth. His recent runs suggest he could well pick a race up from this mark though and an easy 5f is probably his best option. Fifth place TAAJUB didn’t really take advantage of his good draw and found trouble by being held up. He is another that suggests he could win from his current mark. As previously mentioned it’s hard to win from out the back and out wide over Sandown’s flying 5 furlongs so for that reason I would be willing to crank up DUNGANNON’s 6th placed run a notch or 2. It was an extremely difficult draw to win from and he did well to get so close and he did motor home once the gaps appeared; to only finish 2.5 lengths in arrears was a fine effort.

BDH(s) to follow…

DUNGANNON (6th) (A Balding)

This 6yo gelding put in some decent late work once the gaps appeared and whilst his finishing position probably doesn’t fully justify his effort it should be enough to keep him under the radar of most punters.

Possibly the most interesting angle with this horse is his current handicap mark of 88. That is a full 7lbs lower than his last winning mark and 2lbs lower than his 2nd highest winning mark. If we also consider the fact that he has run well from marks as high as 99 & 97 then it isn’t hard to make the assumption that he is currently sitting on a pretty handy mark.

It’s also interesting to note that all his wins have come when returning within 28 days or less of his last run (on Friday it was 32 days since his last run)…

Form when returning within 28 days of last run – 010061013571

Form when returning after a break of 29 days+ – 569252678055

He doesn’t necessarily run ‘poorly’ after longer breaks but the fact all his wins have come off shorter breaks suggests that ideally we want him on the track within a month.

He looks fairly adaptable when it comes to ground and to a certain extent distance (winning form over 5f, 6f & 7f) so his options should be open enough with regards to future targets. His handicap mark is clearly the most interesting aspect about him and I would be surprised if he can’t take advantage of it very soon, especially off the back of his run at Sandown last Friday.

Conditions – Ideally we are wanting him back on the track within the month, the 28 day window looks his optimum and there should be plenty of targets for him to be aimed at. He has winning form over 7f but personally I think 5f or 6f would be the ideal trips for him, again there should be plenty of openings for him within the next few weeks.

DUNGANNON now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

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Ben (BDH)