BDH Saturday Qualifier: Dinkum done by the downpour?

Diamond in the rough?!?

One BDH qualifier for us on Saturday but is the ground playing for or against us at Ascot?

Before I get on to that though we have a wee bit of house keeping for our midweek BDH runner…

Thursday BDH runner – MISSION APPROVED (Warwick)

Another placed effort for the squad, this time a 3rd placed 1 length defeat at BFSP 7.4. I think we were a smidgen unlucky here as James Doyle had to get across early from the wide draw and that may have just left him a tad short for his finishing effort. MA was in the lead entering the final furlong but he just couldn’t sustain the effort all the way to the line. I was half banking on a decent amount of rain falling by the time our race was off (my original post on Mission Approved stated that ground with cut in it would help) but it just didn’t come in enough buckets to properly change the ground; when you need the rain it doesn’t come and when you don’t want it (like when you are walking the dogs!) it comes down in buckets!

Anyway I’m not overly disappointed with this run, it was a tough (although not impossible) draw to overcome but this was a decent effort. He has now run twice for us and been beaten a head and a length and I’m still happy to keep him in the squad for now. Hopefully he will get ground with a bit of cut in it sooner rather than later…

Now onto Saturday’s qualifier…

BDH Runner: DINKUM DIAMOND 1.30 Ascot

Ascot is currently SOFT so that quite simply means NO BET for us. We want Good to Firm or at the least Good but Soft is a no go. If he somehow wins on the Soft stuff then the world will have dropped off it’s axis!

DD has run 3 times for us since making the squad. We managed to grab some nice E/W profits when he ran on the Good to Firm at Ascot (3rd at 22-1, was 33’s in the morning), he got a troubled passage in the Stewards Cup next time out and then the ground went against him/us at York and he was a no-bet.

There will be others much more suited to the underfoot conditions in this race and I’ll happily leave him alone in this Listed contest. We may indeed struggle to get him on his favoured conditions now before this season is out…

Arc De Triomphe – Sunday

I am neck-deep in National Hunt stuff at the minute but I have taken time out to put Sunday’s big race at Longchamp under the ‘Trosage’ microscope and I will have a full and free BDH analysis guide ready for you to download here on the Blog.

To make sure you don’t miss out on this free and alternative guide for one of the worlds most famous and prestigious races simply join the NTF/BDH FREE list, where you will also be able to download a clutch of free racing guides and mini-angles…

>>>Join the FREE NTF/BDH list today

Ben (BDH/NTF)

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Betfred Ebor Handicap Dosage & Trends Analysis

Can O’Meara’s form continue through to the big one?

Well it’s safe to say that it was all bets off on Dinkum Diamond on waking up on Friday morning! On writing my article it was looking great, he was set to race on his favoured Good to Firm ground. On clicking publish on the post news started to reach me that the heavens had opened over the Knavesmire, a quick check of Twitter confirmed that York was indeed being swamped by biblical style rain. On waking up a quick check of the going confirmed we were looking at Good to Soft. Gun back in it’s holster and trigger not pulled on the Dinkum Diamond bet. It’s a royal pain in the ass but he was never going to win on that ground and I was never going to waste my money on him under those conditions. Frustrating…

In the race itself I DID back SHEA SHEA & ROSDHU QUEEN. For a brief moment I though our main selection was going to get up but he just wasn’t getting there. Did the rain softened/rain lashed ground blunt his speed? Probably, but that’s racing. He wouldn’t be as dependent on Good to Firm as, say, Dinkum D so for all it was an inconvenience I wouldn’t use it as an excuse, he only went down by 1/2 a length after all.

But what of the winner JWALA? A surprise winner? My first reaction was yes but once I looked at my own figures I had to say no, not so much. On my final figures she sat in the next group down from the shortlist (along with Tickled Pink) with a combined score of 12/16. Once the full subscription service kicks in over the jumps I will probably look to include all combined scores within the guide for subscribers to use.

Going forward from the race DINKUM DIAMOND remains on the BDH list. It was pretty clear after all my Good to Firm waffling yesterday that come the morning of the race he was a no-bet for us and we should read nothing more into it other than conditions went completely against him. We may be hard pushed to get on him in a Good to Firm 5f race before the season is out but we live in hope and, as always, at the mercy of the Great British weather…

Ebor Handicap full Analysis Guide…

I feel we are in for another bit of weather watching for Saturday’s action on the Knavesmire as the weather forecast is for more heavy rain to lash the track. Whether it will be in as quite so biblical proportions as Thursday night is another matter but there is plenty forecast and I would urge you to keep an eye on the skies.

It looks a competitive affair (naturally) and as well as my selections in the guide I also have the David O’Meara trained TROPICAL BEAT running for me. If you remember he was the selection in my rare ante-post analysis for the Ebor back on the 14th of August. He was readily available at 25/1 back then and now sits on the much tighter price of 10/1. So far so good on the ante-post front then as he a) is actually lining up and b) he is much shorter in the market than he was when I backed him 10 days ago. In my experience it doesn’t always work out that way!!

Anyway enough of my jibber jabber, the full BDH analysis guide is available for you all to download from the following link…

>>>Free Betfred Ebor Handicap Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and remember, keep an eye ont’ weather!

NTF Fantasy Football League…

Many thanks to all of you that joined the Fantasy League last week. There is around 40 of us in it so that should be great fun to follow as the football season bobs along.

If you still want to join the league then head to http://fantasy.premierleague.com and in the ‘LEAGUES’ tab enter my code – 1170033-369849.

It’s all good fun in the NTF league but in the overall league you can win some tasty prizes. It’s all free to enter and worth a shot if your a footie fan.

Sky Bet Super-6 – £250,000 to the winner!

Did any of you come close last week?! I probably did the best I have ever done with 2 correct scorelines and 1 correct result!!

I was having a dig about the site and it turns out you can create a private league within the main game…so that’s what I have done!

All you do is sign-in to the Super 6 site, head to the ‘Leagues’ tab, click on ‘join a league’ and enter the code 2Q2M8S.

Lets see if one of us can land the main prize, but if not let’s see who is at least best at predicting the scores!

You need a SKYBET account to play the FREE Super 6 game, if you don’t have one then sign up here today.

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes Dosage & Trends Analysis

It would be ‘fair Dinkum’ if Cathy could do the business on Diamond!

It’s been a fairly quiet week for me so far on the Knavesmire but with the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes blasting into action as the centerpiece of the Friday card it’s time to get stuck in!

I have pulled together a full (and free) Dosage and Trends analysis guide for the 5f contest but before I lavish that upon you all we first have the small matter of a BDH qualifier, funnily enough also lining up in the Nunthorpe Stakes…

BDH Qualifier: 3.40 York – DINKUM DIAMOND

DD already secured us some each-way profits when running 3rd in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot but today he faces a much stiffer challenge.

What he faces today is…

5 furlongs – Tick. All 4 career wins have come over the trip.

Good to Firm ground – Tick. All 4 career wins have come on Good to Firm.

Group 1 company – He is yet to win a Group race.

Is he really up to Group 1 company? To be fair to him he did run a decent 3 3/4L 7th in this race as a 2yo in 2010 on only his 4th ever career start and has run some fine races in Group company at various points of his career. I couldn’t say confidently that he is a G1 beast in waiting but if he is ever going to win one it would be under these Good to Firm-5f conditions.

All 4 of his career wins have come on Good to Firm over 5f and his form line on G/F reads 116733113. Breaking it down further we see that on Good To Firm he has had 9 runs – 4 wins – 3 places (only 2 un-placed runs) whilst on ground that is softer than Good to Firm his record reads 15 runs – 0 wins – 6 places (9 un-placed runs); the forecast Good to Firm is very much in his favour. If we look just a touch closer we also see that in his last 14 runs he has only faced Good to Firm ground on 2 occasions, those 2 runs producing a 1st & 3rd.

To balance things up, however, when you open up my analysis guide for the race you will see he sits pretty close to the bottom of the pile, he is far from a snug fit on the trends or the Dosage. To be fair though the BDH attack line doesn’t take into account those things so I’m willing to overlook that, I’m merely pointing out that DD has a fair task on his hands.

DINKUM DIAMOND is available at mammoth odds but with him facing his much preferred 5 furlongs on his even more preferred Good To Firm and possibly/probably being drawn on the pace side (more of that in the race guide below) I think we at least need to have a a slice of him each-way. If he turns out to be not quite up to Group 1 level then so be it, however, the facts are I’m not willing to let him go un-backed at the available odds with his 2 perfect race conditions staring him slap bang in the face!

**WEATHER WARNING!!! Just as I finish writing this article I hear of biblical rain and thunderstorms falling in York!! Best we check the ground before placing the bets, must be a very serious chance of it NOT being Good to Firm come the start of the first race and hence DD NOT getting his ideal conditions…

Bloody Yorkshire weather….

As they sat in these parts, FOOK SAKE!!

Nunthorpe Stakes full Analysis…

It feels like I’ve already covered the race in detail!! But fear ye not BDH-ers I’ve so much more for you in the shape of the full BDH ‘Trosage’ guide, available for you all to download for free from the link below.

The analysis for this race does a fine job of cutting the field into a manageable chunk so hopefully the winner is at least on the shortlist (if of course it isn’t Dinkum D!!!)…

>>>Free Nunthorpe Stakes Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

**WEATHER WARNING & SIGNIFICANT GROUND CHANGE!!! This article/guide was written last night when the ground was Good to Firm. I awake this morning to find we are now faced with Good to Soft! History has told my betting bank that is a time to tread carefully and we could be in for a bit of a guessing match as to the actual conditions they will be racing on. It’s not the Good to Soft that is the problem but the rapid change from Good to Firm to Good to Soft, as already mentioned please tread carefully…

Free Guides & Updates

The National Hunt season is reaching ever closer and with that comes the resumption of NTF.

I will soon be releasing a number of FREE NTF guides to members of the FREE NTF service, similar to the ones that are currently available to new members here

If you want to receive regular updates and download an array of free guides from BDH/NTF then please visit the following page and join the growing community –

>>> Join the BDH/NTF community

On joining you will be sent a link to download a multitude of FREE GUIDES, including free horse racing tips, pointers, guides and free horse racing betting systems.

(If you are a current NTF/BDH member then you can continue with with life as normal :))

Ben (BDH)

BDH Stewards’ Sprint Stakes Review: Yeeoow! I feel Good(wood)!

Get up! Get Down! Get up again…

A couple of points of interest from myself today as I take a look back at our Stewards Cup runner from Saturday and also introduce a new member to the BDH squad as we continue to bolster our offensive line.

Starting with…

Saturday’s BDH runners: DINKUM DIAMOND

Getting into top gear…door sandwiched shut! Gets round another way…finds arse end of another runner going nowhere! Yeah that’s Glorious Freakin’ Goodwood for ya! Dinkum Diamond didn’t exactly have a clear run in the hustle and bustle cavalry charge that was Saturday’s Stewards Cup, not enough to stop him winning but enough to get me pissed off for a couple of minutes! Cathy Gannon started stoking him up with 2 furlongs to go and although the response wasn’t instant he was starting to get some forward momentum, that was until the runners either side of him formed a pincer type movement and slammed the door shut in his face. In fairness to jockey and horse they found a way out but were then met with a back-tracking runner and that was game well and truly over. The interference didn’t mean the difference between winning and losing (far from it, the impressive winner had long since flown), at best it cost DD sneaking a place, but not getting a clear run is always a frustrating result in horse racing. It’s like sex without the climax…or something like that?! It’s wholly unsatisfactory, whatever you liken it to!

Anyway I digress… DINKUM DIAMOND stays in our BDH squad although we need to keep an eye on the underfoot conditions from here on in. The never-ending heatwave looks to be coming to a shuddering halt (booooo!) and we are starting to see conditions with a bit more juice in them. Ideally we want Good to Firm for DD (Good ground is passable) so hopefully his chances won’t be snatched from him by the ground.

Now time to bolster our hit-squad with a Badly Drawn Horse from Saturdays Goodwood action…

BDH Review…

Race in focus: 2.05 Goodwood (03-08-2013): Robins Farm Racing Stewards’ Sprint Stakes – 6f, Class 2 Handicap (24 ran)

How the race played out…

Reserve Stewards Cup Review

Pace wise this was simple; if you weren’t drawn up the top end you had little to no chance of being involved in the finish. The first 2 were drawn in 2 of the 3 highest stalls and the first 4 home were all drawn in stall 17 or above. They ended up drifting down the bottom side in the final half a furlong but that is irrelevant as they were comfortably ahead by that stage. TAKE COVER was the main pace-setter from up high with ABOVE STANDARD also doing his best to get involved from his middle to high posi. TAX FREE tried to hook onto the pace from box 12 but he could never really get there, with the same being said about NOVERRE TO GO from stall 2.

The pace map gives us clear indicators that the high numbers were where the pace was emanating from and in the end that played right into the hooves of those drawn middle to high.

The end result…

First home SEEKING MAGIC came from the highest stall of all the runners and this easily allowed him to hook onto the pace setters and grab them late on in the shadow of the post. He has taken his form to a new level this term (posting career best figures) and his previous 2 runs fully suggested he was getting ready to strike and land a tasty pot. With only 19 career starts to his name he may yet have improvement to come before the season is out. Second placed TAKE COVER has to go down as unlucky here. He led everywhere but the line in this race and despite this being a big step up in class he showed he is more than ready for it. He is another that is lightly raced and may have more to give yet. Third placed CHOOSEDAY was never too far away and dug deep in the closing stages to record a career best RPR figure. My feeling is that he may just need a wee bit of respite from the handicapper to get himself back to winning ways. ABOVE STANDARD was on a hat-trick and a career high mark and battled on well for 4th and a career best on the figures. The ground probably wasn’t quite quick enough for him and he could still have another big run in him off his mark. Fifth placed OUT DO was the best of the middle to low drawn runners but he is still 10lbs higher than his win at Yarmouth in June and the signs are that he needs to drop a couple before winning opportunities come his way. Sixth home YEEOOW was drawn at the complete opposite end of the stalls from the winner and this effort was an improvement on the form he has shown since his win at Ascot in May. This was a fine effort from a very difficult draw and he stuck in well at the business end.

BDH to follow…

YEEOOW (6th) (Mrs K Burke)

This Holy Roman Emperor gelding was the first home of the low stalls and was comfortably ahead of the others drawn in the same vicinity. Essentially he is a horse that has to come with a late run and the way this race unfolded meant there was little chance of that happening here, with regards to the runners that finished ahead of him.The way the race panned out from a pace perspective gave him little to no chance of victory so his 3 length 6th gains the utmost respect from myself.

The Burke’s have a decent team at their disposal this season and this 4yo would be near the top of their tree with this run very much suggesting that he can still do some damage off his current mark (only 3lbs higher than his last win).

A scrutiny of his form doesn’t really give us much in the way of angles to work with (apart from his obvious liking for Kempton – 1212) but a quick squint at the Burke yards form with their sprinters suggest we should possibly be looking at a Redcar (4 wins from 14) , Carlisle (3 wins from 5) or Ffos Las (2 wins from 3) as future targets. There is, I admit, nothing concrete in any of that for YEEOOW and he is one we should probably play by ear, race upon race.

Conditions – As already mentioned there is nothing stand-out obvious about the horses turf form and I’m happy to take him as he comes and scrutinize him on a race by race basis. He probably doesn’t have masses up his sleeve from the 93 mark but there should be enough for another victory to be squeezed out, preferably with Martin Harley on-board who seems to know the horse well.

YEEOOW now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Current BDH Squad

The following are the current members of our BDH Offensive line…

BACCARAT | DANCE AND DANCE | DINKUM DIAMOND | DUKE OF FIRENZE | DUNGANNON | JACK DEXTER | REDVERS | STEPS (soon to be featured on my guest post for horseracing.ie) | TAWHID | WAKING WARRIOR (featured in my guest post for Make Your Betting Pay) | YEEOOW

If you want to read about them then click on their names in the BDH TAGS section on the right-hand side of the Blog or pop their name in the search function right at the top, that should take you to the original post. If I have missed any of our team from the list then drop me a comment below, I’m pretty sure I got them all though 🙂

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

BDH Stewards Cup Analysis: DD hoping to Hoof It to glory…

Aah Glorious Goodwood, Glorious freakin’ Goodwood! Unless in some dark and distant land Glorious means “the festival of finding trouble in-running” I think they should re-name it! In truth I’m being a bit harsh, I actually enjoy watching the meeting, just not punting on it as much, it’s a bit too in and out for my liking (I’ve learned this through numerous roller-coaster Glorious Goodwood punting experiences!) so I’m actually quite pleased I haven’t gotten too involved in the punting side this week.

The 2 BDH runners I did open up the punting bank for this Friday both got checked at vital stages in their forward runs (as is far too often the case at Goodwood!) and Duke Of Firenze most certainly still had plenty of nitro boost left in his rocket pack, he just had no room to use it!

Anyway here is my take on how our 3 troopers performed and my thoughts on them going forward from here…

TAWHID (2nd in the Thoroughbred Stakes) – I was more than happy with this run and also more than happy to have not punted him. He coped well enough on the Good ground but he still gave me the impression he wants at least Good to Soft and on the day was beaten by the better horse who was also more suited by conditions. Tawhid will get his chance once the rain gets into the ground at the back end of the season, and then we will be on and collecting the profit.

DANCE AND DANCE (10th in the Betfred Mile) – I think this was a case of Moore wanting the horse closer the pace but the horse wanting to do the usual and sit out the back. Moore had him well enough placed but when he made his move around 2f out the path he intended taking started closing rapidly and he had to switch. I don’t think it was the difference between winning & losing but it may have cost him nicking a place. He still remains of utmost interest from his current handicap mark.

DUKE OF FIRENZE (10th in the King George Stakes) – Traveled well enough but the doors just didn’t open at the right times for him. It still doesn’t confirm or deny whether he is a Group animal in the making but there is a large part of me that wants to see him tackle a handicap off this current mark, I really do think he can land a large handicap pot from his rating. Moore was easy enough on him once the lanes up ahead started squeezing shut and he still remains of interest.

We have another of our BDH crew taking to the Sussex Downs on day 5 of the “Glorious” Festival in the cavalry charge that is the Stewards Cup…

Saturday BDH Runner – DINKUM DIAMOND – 3.50 Stewards’ Cup

With 28 runners set to go to post the pace map is, as ever, a fine place to start…

Stewards Cup

From a pace perspective it looks like there is a good chance that it will be split right across the track. There is probable pace coming from Top (WHOZTHECAT), Middle (BLAINE) and Bottom (DR RED EYE). DINKUM DIAMOND is drawn almost slap bang in the middle and that gives him options on the pace side although he could just fire straight down the middle and hook on to the pace of Blaine. Draw/pace wise he looks fine.

Next up I want to look at the ground. My stipulation for him is Good to Firm; all his career wins have come on such a surface. At the moment Goodwood is sitting at Good (Good to Firm in places). For me that would be OK as he has run some sound races on Good ground and the G2F patches suggest it is currently heading for the faster side anyway. There are showers forecast so if there is significant softening of the ground then I would most likely be looking to jump ship, however at the minute I’m good with the likely underfoot conditions.

From a handicapping perspective I would say his mark (103) is well within his grasp and he is only 1lb higher than his 3rd in the Dash at Epsom and 3lbs higher than his excellent 3rd at Ascot last time out.

Cathy Gannon is getting to know him very well (17033) so it’s a positive that she keeps the ride.

I know he is yet to win over 6 furlongs but he has ran some eye-catching races over the trip and the way he was finishing last time out over the distance at Ascot tells me this isn’t too much of a worry, in fact he has actually ran to within 2lbs of his 5f form over the furlong longer trip, 6f does not scare me with this lad.

Ideally we want drying ground for DD but at the moment the conditions are enough to persuade me to punt and at around 18-1 (larger on Betfair) I’m happy to take the plunge. I will naturally be keeping an eye on the weather though…

*Note – Ground now changed to Good all round but no showers are forecast and it is set to be a dry and breezy day. Again it is a case of keeping an eye on proceedings, watching the weather and seeing how the first few races play out…

To be honest this contest looks tricky, fast and furiously tricky! But then it’s Glorious Goodwood and the Stewards Cup, we should expect nothing less.

I generally like to have a cover bet running for me in these sprint minefields so I gave the entire field a quick analysis with my own trends… but that didn’t really clear the waters much, there were a number within close proximity of each other.

Hoof It, Face The Problem & Prodigality are the 3 that I finally settled upon to make up my cover bet shortlist. Of that 3 I’m leaning towards 2011 winner HOOF IT.

He missed most of last year due to a couple of problems but he returned to action at York last month. That was over an inadequate 5f and clearly that was a race to simply blow away the cobwebs and smooth off the rough edges. He ran well without over exerting himself that day and he is sure to strip much fitter here.

He is only 1lb higher than when winning this race 2 years ago and considering he finished 1/4L 3rd behind Dream Ahead & Bated Breath in the 2011 Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup I don’t see this mark being much of a problem.

Kieran Fallon back on top is a massive positive, with the pair having a 7117116 record together when teaming up.

He likes the ground, handles the trip and track, enjoys the thrill of large field sprints (4 wins from 10 runs) and Easterby is sure to have him primed to the minute for this repeat bid.

Like most Goodwood contests I’m fully prepared for hard luck stories in-running, especially with 28 runners belting it down the 6f straight track, but you gotta be in it to win it and I’ll be having a dabble on BDH runner DINKUM DIAMOND (providing the ground looks OK and doesn’t deteriorate) and a covering bet on 2011 winner HOOF IT.

Best of luck if you are getting involved in this fiendishly difficult conundrum.

Ben (BDH)