Betfred Ebor Handicap Dosage & Trends Analysis

Can O’Meara’s form continue through to the big one?

Well it’s safe to say that it was all bets off on Dinkum Diamond on waking up on Friday morning! On writing my article it was looking great, he was set to race on his favoured Good to Firm ground. On clicking publish on the post news started to reach me that the heavens had opened over the Knavesmire, a quick check of Twitter confirmed that York was indeed being swamped by biblical style rain. On waking up a quick check of the going confirmed we were looking at Good to Soft. Gun back in it’s holster and trigger not pulled on the Dinkum Diamond bet. It’s a royal pain in the ass but he was never going to win on that ground and I was never going to waste my money on him under those conditions. Frustrating…

In the race itself I DID back SHEA SHEA & ROSDHU QUEEN. For a brief moment I though our main selection was going to get up but he just wasn’t getting there. Did the rain softened/rain lashed ground blunt his speed? Probably, but that’s racing. He wouldn’t be as dependent on Good to Firm as, say, Dinkum D so for all it was an inconvenience I wouldn’t use it as an excuse, he only went down by 1/2 a length after all.

But what of the winner JWALA? A surprise winner? My first reaction was yes but once I looked at my own figures I had to say no, not so much. On my final figures she sat in the next group down from the shortlist (along with Tickled Pink) with a combined score of 12/16. Once the full subscription service kicks in over the jumps I will probably look to include all combined scores within the guide for subscribers to use.

Going forward from the race DINKUM DIAMOND remains on the BDH list. It was pretty clear after all my Good to Firm waffling yesterday that come the morning of the race he was a no-bet for us and we should read nothing more into it other than conditions went completely against him. We may be hard pushed to get on him in a Good to Firm 5f race before the season is out but we live in hope and, as always, at the mercy of the Great British weather…

Ebor Handicap full Analysis Guide…

I feel we are in for another bit of weather watching for Saturday’s action on the Knavesmire as the weather forecast is for more heavy rain to lash the track. Whether it will be in as quite so biblical proportions as Thursday night is another matter but there is plenty forecast and I would urge you to keep an eye on the skies.

It looks a competitive affair (naturally) and as well as my selections in the guide I also have the David O’Meara trained TROPICAL BEAT running for me. If you remember he was the selection in my rare ante-post analysis for the Ebor back on the 14th of August. He was readily available at 25/1 back then and now sits on the much tighter price of 10/1. So far so good on the ante-post front then as he a) is actually lining up and b) he is much shorter in the market than he was when I backed him 10 days ago. In my experience it doesn’t always work out that way!!

Anyway enough of my jibber jabber, the full BDH analysis guide is available for you all to download from the following link…

>>>Free Betfred Ebor Handicap Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and remember, keep an eye ont’ weather!

NTF Fantasy Football League…

Many thanks to all of you that joined the Fantasy League last week. There is around 40 of us in it so that should be great fun to follow as the football season bobs along.

If you still want to join the league then head to http://fantasy.premierleague.com and in the ‘LEAGUES’ tab enter my code – 1170033-369849.

It’s all good fun in the NTF league but in the overall league you can win some tasty prizes. It’s all free to enter and worth a shot if your a footie fan.

Sky Bet Super-6 – £250,000 to the winner!

Did any of you come close last week?! I probably did the best I have ever done with 2 correct scorelines and 1 correct result!!

I was having a dig about the site and it turns out you can create a private league within the main game…so that’s what I have done!

All you do is sign-in to the Super 6 site, head to the ‘Leagues’ tab, click on ‘join a league’ and enter the code 2Q2M8S.

Lets see if one of us can land the main prize, but if not let’s see who is at least best at predicting the scores!

You need a SKYBET account to play the FREE Super 6 game, if you don’t have one then sign up here today.

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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Rocking to the Knavesmire Beat with an early Ebor fancy …

Is Tropical ready to Beat all-comers in the Ebor?

The 2013 York Ebor Festival rumbles into action on the Knavesmire next week and I’ll be covering a handful of the races here on the BDH Blog for your punting delights.

The highlight of the week is the Ebor itself, run on the Saturday over the stamina testing 1m6f trip. I know it’s not a straight track blitz race but it does provide some strong race trends and is a race I like getting my teeth into.

There is still a mass of entries in the valuable handicap and although I’m not a huge ante-post player (not by any stretch of the imagination) I do like taking an early look at some of the major races and, at the very least, getting my eye in on who is most likely to fit the trends.

With over a week until the tapes go up for the contest we obviously don’t yet know the draw, what the ground will be like and the pace angle (as in how the race is likely to shape up). It should also be noted that on the wider trends front there will be some horses that won’t qualify if we did the trends now but may well qualify when the trends are applied once the final field is know. Nevertheless I have taken 5 of the strongest Ebor trends from my own research and applied them to the current entries to see if anything stands out at us.

The trends I have used are…

15/15 had an OR of 102 & below

14/15 finished in the top 2 on 1 of their last 3 starts

13/15 were aged 3, 4 or 5 (other 2 were 6yo)

13/15 were (IRE) or (GB) bred

12/15 ran within the past 26 days

Surprisingly that chops the huge field down into only the following 10 ‘contenders’…

Montaser | Tropical Beat | Plinth | Duke Of Clarence | Clowance Estate | Noble Silk | Renew | Homeric | Arch Villain | Party Line

From that motley crew the one that interests me the most is the David O’Meara trained TROPICAL BEAT.

He runs off a mark of 97 here (officially 2lbs ‘well in’) and after only 11 turf starts there is plenty reason to believe he has improvement still to come. His last run at Musselburgh was his first of the season and also his first for O’Meara and it isn’t hard to think that he will come on plenty for the outing.

He has placed form at the track and over the trip, looks fairly adaptable with regards to ground (yet to face softer than Good to Soft admittedly) and handles large fields.

He has form lines that tie in with some decent animals and with the Musselburgh race likely to have gotten him cherry ripe for this he looks a value proposition at this stage. Oh yeah, his Dosage figures also sit kindly with previous winners as well.

Things may well change dramatically once I apply the full might of the BDH ‘Trosage’ machine but for now I’m pretty keen on the chances of TROPICAL BEAT.

A general 25/1 looks a fair price at this stage.

Resumption of NTF…

Yes it’s that time of the year again. The time of the year where the National Hunt big guns will be filing back into their respective National Hunt yards ready to resume full training, or at least starting to shed the summer poundage they may have accumulated over the last few months.

That also means that NTF will be starting to rev it’s engines and getting ready to burst out of it’s summer slumber!

I’ve already got an excellent guest blogger lined up for you for the start of next month and I’ll also be supplying the members of the FREE NTF list with a sprinkling of FREE NTF guides to get their National Hunt juices well and truly flowing.

If you are already a member of the free NTF service then you need do nothing more. If you’re not and you want to grab the free guides when they are ready then a quick sign up at the following page – www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/free-ntf-guides-and-e-books – is all it takes.

I can almost see that Cheltenham hill appearing on the horizon, almost…

Ben (BDH/NTF)