It’s been a fairly quiet week for me so far on the Knavesmire but with the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes blasting into action as the centerpiece of the Friday card it’s time to get stuck in!
I have pulled together a full (and free) Dosage and Trends analysis guide for the 5f contest but before I lavish that upon you all we first have the small matter of a BDH qualifier, funnily enough also lining up in the Nunthorpe Stakes…
BDH Qualifier: 3.40 York – DINKUM DIAMOND
DD already secured us some each-way profits when running 3rd in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot but today he faces a much stiffer challenge.
What he faces today is…
5 furlongs – Tick. All 4 career wins have come over the trip.
Good to Firm ground – Tick. All 4 career wins have come on Good to Firm.
Group 1 company – He is yet to win a Group race.
Is he really up to Group 1 company? To be fair to him he did run a decent 3 3/4L 7th in this race as a 2yo in 2010 on only his 4th ever career start and has run some fine races in Group company at various points of his career. I couldn’t say confidently that he is a G1 beast in waiting but if he is ever going to win one it would be under these Good to Firm-5f conditions.
All 4 of his career wins have come on Good to Firm over 5f and his form line on G/F reads 116733113. Breaking it down further we see that on Good To Firm he has had 9 runs – 4 wins – 3 places (only 2 un-placed runs) whilst on ground that is softer than Good to Firm his record reads 15 runs – 0 wins – 6 places (9 un-placed runs); the forecast Good to Firm is very much in his favour. If we look just a touch closer we also see that in his last 14 runs he has only faced Good to Firm ground on 2 occasions, those 2 runs producing a 1st & 3rd.
To balance things up, however, when you open up my analysis guide for the race you will see he sits pretty close to the bottom of the pile, he is far from a snug fit on the trends or the Dosage. To be fair though the BDH attack line doesn’t take into account those things so I’m willing to overlook that, I’m merely pointing out that DD has a fair task on his hands.
DINKUM DIAMOND is available at mammoth odds but with him facing his much preferred 5 furlongs on his even more preferred Good To Firm and possibly/probably being drawn on the pace side (more of that in the race guide below) I think we at least need to have a a slice of him each-way. If he turns out to be not quite up to Group 1 level then so be it, however, the facts are I’m not willing to let him go un-backed at the available odds with his 2 perfect race conditions staring him slap bang in the face!
**WEATHER WARNING!!! Just as I finish writing this article I hear of biblical rain and thunderstorms falling in York!! Best we check the ground before placing the bets, must be a very serious chance of it NOT being Good to Firm come the start of the first race and hence DD NOT getting his ideal conditions…
Bloody Yorkshire weather….
As they sat in these parts, FOOK SAKE!!
Nunthorpe Stakes full Analysis…
It feels like I’ve already covered the race in detail!! But fear ye not BDH-ers I’ve so much more for you in the shape of the full BDH ‘Trosage’ guide, available for you all to download for free from the link below.
The analysis for this race does a fine job of cutting the field into a manageable chunk so hopefully the winner is at least on the shortlist (if of course it isn’t Dinkum D!!!)…
As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.
**WEATHER WARNING & SIGNIFICANT GROUND CHANGE!!! This article/guide was written last night when the ground was Good to Firm. I awake this morning to find we are now faced with Good to Soft! History has told my betting bank that is a time to tread carefully and we could be in for a bit of a guessing match as to the actual conditions they will be racing on. It’s not the Good to Soft that is the problem but the rapid change from Good to Firm to Good to Soft, as already mentioned please tread carefully…
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