BDH Glorious Goodwood Assault: In Ryan Moore we do trust…

In Ryan Moore we do trust…

No BDH action on the first 3 days of Glorious Goodwood, which if I’m honest has been perfectly fine by me (I’ve had NTF Summer Stunner Carlingford Lough to keep me in clover this week!). GG has never always been the kindest meeting to me and I wasn’t overly keen having a punt anyway, not with the unsettled weather floating around over the Sussex Downs. The weather seems a bit more settled now, which is pretty handy because *BANG* like buses we go from zero qualifiers on the first 3 days to THREE on day 4!

Here is my take on our 3 BDH gladiators…

2.30 Goodwood – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes

BDH runner – TAWHID

This one may have sneaked past the attention of some of you guys because…eh…well…it was a guest post from myself on horse-racing.ie! Ideally I want at least Good to Soft for this 3yo, so for him (and me) this drying ground doesn’t sit well. In fairness he has never run on Good before (best form on Good to Soft & Softer – worst form on Good to Firm) so this assignment possibly falls into that ‘maybe worth a punt‘ zone. SDS takes the ride here, however,  which at Goodwood, is a wee bit of a negative for me so that starts to swing it back into ‘maybe not worth a punt‘ zone. As you can see I’m a bit in 2 minds with this lad and personally I reckon there will be better targets for him in the latter part of the season, today I’m inclined to leave him alone. If he wins today then so be it, there will be other, possibly stronger opportunities for me to get my money down on him before the season is out anyway.

*If it rains, however, I will clearly look to change my mind about not backing him today.

3.05 Goodwood – Betfred Mile (Heritage Handicap)

BDH runner – DANCE AND DANCE

First up: Drawn in stall 1 over a 1 mile at Goodwood in a large field = Great! / A hold up horse drawn in stall 1 over a mile at Goodwood in a large field = Not quite as great!

However, in Ryan Moore do we trust? Yes, in Ryan Moore we do trust. Moore will know this horse is a perennial hold-up merchant but he will also know the value of the 1 stall in this race and the potential to waste that good draw by bolting his mount to the back of the pack from the favourable position. At the time of writing this post his Betfair column isn’t available so it will certainly make for interesting reading re. his race positioning plans for Dance And Dance.

For the record these are the draw stats for the  1 box in 15+ fields over the 1 mile trip at Goodwood since 2007…

7 winners from the 1 box from 25 races | 28% S/R | +£112.17 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/28 | 44% S/R

You don’t need me to tell you that is impressive figures! That is way more than expected and no other stall comes close to that sort of hit rate.

Apart from the draw quibble everything else looks in place. He is incredibly well handicapped on a mark of 94 (he ran 5th in this off 108! in 2011), the ground has come right for him, Ryan Moore has a solid record on him and he runs well after this sort of break.

The draw has slight issues for us but 2nd time blinkers may help combat that and I’m on this BDH warrior today.

In Ryan Moore we do trust…

3.40 Goodwood – Betfred King George Stakes

BDH runner – DUKE OF FIRENZE

Again we entrust our BDH warrior to Ryan Moore and again I’m happy to pitch in with him.

As far as the draw goes I’m thinking he is pitched in perfectly in the 7 stall. Take a gander at the pace map…

King George G Gdwd

There looks plenty of pace on in this Grade 2 and a lot of it is coming from down beside DUKE OF FIRENZE. In theory there should be a flurry of pace happening right in front of him and that should allow Moore to sweep in behind and strike hard, fast and late. There are also some speed options up high but the pace map gives firm indicators that the bulk of the pace will be blasting out from stalls 6 and below, DOF is situated in stall 7.

Outwith the draw we know DOF handles the track (1 from 1), handles the ground (all 4 career wins on Good), enjoys tackling undulating courses (form on undulating & very undulating tracks reads 111) and loves firing off the back of a burn up out front (check the Epsom dash). The only real query is whether or not he is up to Grade 2 class. There is no doubt he has to improve on what he has shown to win this but with only 13 runs under his belt that is a distinct possibility.

At the odds available I’m happy to take the plunge and I’m on this BDH warrior.

In Ryan Moore we do trust…

Ben (BDH)

 

Redvers looking to cash ‘in’ at Ascot…

We had a bit of ‘down time’ last weekend on the flat with no BDH runners and indeed no real races of interest for us at all. We are back in action this weekend, however, as we send one of our BDH troops into battle for us at Ascot.

Let’s crack on with things and fire straight into our BDH qualifier…

CASH OUT MULTIPLES ONLY ON BETFAIR INTERNATIONAL (Heritage Handicap)

A snappy race title if ever I saw one?! Hopefully we will be cashing ‘in’ over the straight 7 furlongs with our BDH qualifier REDVERS.

The pace angle in this race isn’t overly obvious but from my pace map analysis I think we are just about looking at the pace coming from the middle stalls.

Here is the COMOOB International (that’s much catchier!) pace map for your perusal…

Coomob International - Asc 26-07

As you can see there is no obvious front-runner is this large pack but the pace map does suggest that it will be one of Es Que Love, The Confessor or Trail Blaze (aptly named!) that is likely to try and set the pace. Glen Moss or Galician may try and pull the field along from up top but they are not exactly confirmed front-runners and I’m happy to stick with my initial assessment of the pace coming down the middle.

If we look at last years renewal we see that the vast majority of the field bunched together in one big group down the middle, in fact only 2 (+ 1 who completely missed the break) stayed apart from the main pack. In 2011 they also bunched together in one group down the middle. Based on the info we have at hand for this renewal it could well be another contest where they bunch up down the middle.

So how will that effect REDVERS?

Our boy is drawn in stall 4. Not totally ideal, I admit, but he should be able to latch on to the middle group early and all being well he will swoop late down the outside to nab the prize. He is drawn near enough potential pace angle TRAIL BLAZE to get a decent tow into the race so that is certainly a positive.

I also had a quick squint at the trends for this contest , using the previous 15 renewals, and to help us in our search for the winner applied the following 3 to the numbersome (I may have made that word up) field…

13/15 were aged 4 or 5

12/15 had previously won at the distance

10/15 finished in the top 7 LTO

That chops the field down to a more manageable 10 and most importantly includes our lad REDVERS.

Richard Hughes gets the leg up on REDVERS for the first time today and that in itself is very interesting. He doesn’t ride that often for Ed Vaughan so has the trainer actively made sure he secured the services of the champion jockey with this race the horse’s main target? Hughes, after all, has won 2 of the last 3 renewals of this race. In fact his record in this race in the past 7 renewals is a rather fetching 1713053.

There is plenty of 14-1 floating about for REDVERS at the minute and at those odds I’m more than happy to be on. You don’t need me to tell you this is a bloody hard race to win but we have plenty in our favour and at those odds the gains waaay outweigh the risks.

It would be rude of me to not also mention a previous BDH warrior FIELD OF DREAM, who also lines up in this as he seeks to win the race twice on the bounce. He is higher in the weights this time around, marginally, but you can’t deny he comes here in fine fettle. REDVERS is 3lbs better off with him than when they met in the Bunbury Cup last time out and I have a feeling that may just be enough to turn the form around, especially if we consider REDVERS may well have gotten much closer with a clearer passage. It’s tempting to pitch in again with FOD but I’ve had my profit from him for now and this looks a tougher assignment. If his price starts to get silly I may have a dabble but right now I’m happy to side with REDVERS and leave it at that. If FOD wins without my money on then so be it, I won’t shed a tear, he owes me nothing.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and lets hope REDVERS and Hughesie can land the COMOOB International booty for us!!

All being well there should be a couple of our warriors doing battle for us at Glorious Goodwood next week, remember and tune in…

Ben (BDH)