Royal Ascot Day 5: The Diamond Jubilee Stakes Dosage & Trends Analysis

Can another Oz raider follow in the hoof-prints of Black Caviar?

Amazingly that is us now staring day 5 of Royal Ascot 2013 slap bang in the chops!

Does it get any easier? Does it hell! I won’t shirk my responsibilities though and I’ve tackled the tricky looking Diamond Jubilee 6f blitz full-on and smashed it over the *coupon with a twin Dosage & Trends assault. I’ve also taken a look at the fascinating puzzle that is the 29 runner Wokingham Stakes and pulled together a pace map for your perusal. Interestingly the race also contains 2 (yes TWO!) BDH to follow horses. But more on both those races in a bit…

*Coupon is Scottish slang for head/face

Day 4 at Royal Ascot (or Friday as some may prefer to call it!) was far from a day of heavy hitting for me. I was pleased, however, to see the Ballydoyle inmate LEADING LIGHT fire in a battling victory in the Queens Vase. Mainly because it bolstered the Montjeu offspring record  over 2m+ at the track. I like those angles, so I like to see them stand up under pressure, I’m a man of simple pleasures! LEADING LIGHT is a gutsy, battling sort of colt and I like his attitude, it will be interesting to see how he is campaigned from here as I think he has plenty to offer.

Performance of the day has to go, however, to SKY LANTERN. That was a mightily impressive display in the Coronation Stakes and fully confirmed the impression that she is a filly right out of the top drawer. She scored full marks on my trends for the race so I wasn’t surprised by the win, but the way she won from her tricky draw DID surprise me. The ‘Sky’ could well be the limit.

On the polling front it didn’t pan out for you guys as BATTLE OF MARENGO was gunned down late by the charging HILLSTAR and Ryan Moore. Never mind though as you have one more chance, as a collective group, to nail a Royal Ascot BDH polling victory…

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Before I lavish you with the final FREE BDH Royal Ascot analysis guide of the week it’s time to put the cavalry charge that is the Wokingham under a bit of scrutiny.

I’m not sure if it is the racing gods conspiring for us or against us but we have ended up with 2 recent BDH to follow horses going to battle here; YORK GLORY & DINKUM DIAMOND.

Of the two of them I would say it is DINKUM DIAMOND that has the best of the draw, however, YORK GLORY should also just have enough from his draw to hook onto the back of the pace.

Here is how I see the pace working out…

Wokingham

I’m thinking it is low to middle that has the call here. Obviously that suits DINKUM more than YORK but I can see a situation where the high numbers swing down low early and hook onto the back of the main group.

I also fired the field through some primary trends…

15/16 aged 4, 5 or 6 

14/16 top 4 finish LTO

14/16 rated 102 or less

After that you are still left with around a third of the field but importantly it still has DINKUM & YORK in the frame.

Both look to have conditions in their favour and at the prices – YORK GLORY 16-1, DINKUM DIAMOND 25/1 – I’m happy to have them both on my side.

Even if they don’t fire today they won’t be dropping off the to follow list, there is every chance it will be a messy race.

Now onto the final race in focus for the week; The Diamond Jubilee.

From an analysis side of things this is far from clear cut (as you will see from the guide). There are a lot of runners very close together on the trends and the Dosage doesn’t cut a big enough swathe through the field for it to be of any real significance. Regardless I have given my two tuppence worth for you all to consider…

>>>Free Diamond Jubilee Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Hopefully you have all enjoyed the BDH analysis through this Royal Ascot week. As always it has been a tricky assignment and personally I’m glad I cherry-picked my targets.

By the way can anyone find me a video of BILLIE MAGERN holding on at the end at Market Rasen yesterday!? In twitter speak I am still #gutted ! Sterling effort from the Summer Stunner though…

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Ben (BDH)

3.15 Epsom (01-06-13) – INVESTEC DASH (HERITAGE HANDICAP) 5f, Class 2 (17 ran)

Hi guys and many thanks for all the messages, tweets and comments over the weekend. Before I get stuck into the meat of today’s post (the Epsom Dash BDH report) I just want to take a quick look back at how the figures played out on Saturday…

The Epsom Dash was the first race for scrutiny and disappointingly one of my own selections, Humidor, was a non-runner. I felt he had a serious chance in this, even more so with how the race played out. Regardless of his absence the shortlist (OK it was a fairly long shortlist!) played out well.

Here is how the shortlist fared…

JIROFT – 5th at 33/1

DINKUM DIAMOND – 3rd at 25-1

DUKE OF FIRENZE – 1st at 5-1

CAPTAIN DUNNE – 7th at 7-1

LONG AWAITED – 12th at 11/2

MISTER MANANNAN – 16th at 20/1

SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL –  2nd at 7/1

First 3 home on the list so I’m happy with how the figures performed. Would have been happier if Smoothtalkinrascal got up though…

The 2nd race for us was the big one itself – The Investec Derby!

Think I’ll just let the figures talk for themselves here…

BATTLE OF MARENGO – 4th at 11/2

OCOVANGO – 5th at 8/1

RULER OF THE WORLD – 1st at 7/1

CHOPIN – 7th at 12/1

DAWN APPROACH – 12th at 5/4

Ruler Of The World did the job fantastically well and on my figures was the real strong contender for this race. Of the others I reckon Ocovango can be marked up a notch or 2. He had the death draw in stall 1 and also got squeezed for room 2f AND 1f out.

Again I was clearly more than happy with how the figures played out.

Anyway enough of the guides and onto the matter in hand; sourcing a badly drawn horse (or 2) for us to follow…

Race in focus: 2.55 Epsom (01-06-2013): Investec Dash Handicap – 5f, Class 2 (17 ran)

How the race played out…

Epsom Dash 2013

As you can see from the pace map it was perennial speedster CAPTAIN DUNNE who blasted away and set the pace from the high stalls. Both JUDGE N JURY & JIROFT tried to set a pace down low but the field all gravitated towards the high stalls (near side) and they were forced to tow the line to a certain degree or end up being isolated on their own. Pre-race I knew there was the potential of pace from high and low but Captain Dunne absolutely blitzed the start and the others simply dropped in and followed, making it a high end pace race.

This obviously made life that much harder for those coming from the low stalls as they had to drag themselves across to tow the line with the bulk of the field.

The end result…

Relative to the horses that finished around him winner DUKE OF FIRENZE had a fairly straight trajectory from box 16 to the finishing line, only having to switch positions to get the gaps at the end. He ran well in the York race that was covered on here last week and he was coming here in decent form. The pace very much played for him here and Moore was masterful in the saddle as he picked his way through late on. Second placed SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL is the obvious eye-catcher in the race and probably the unluckiest horse in the race as well. He was carried slightly left out of the stalls and then had to switch to his right and cover the width of the track to come where the pace was. This cost him vital ground but he dug in and finished with an almighty rattle. Third placed DINKUM DIAMOND is another that was inconvenienced by the draw and he also met trouble a couple of times in running as he tried to track across to where the pace was. He finished strongly and is somewhat of an overlooked horse in the outcome of this contest. Fourth placed FAIR VALUE had every chance from a prime draw and there are no real excuses for him. Fifth placed JIROFT, who was making his UK debut, tried to be right on the speed early with Judge and Jury but the pace was up the other side and he had to try and make his way over. He did extremely well to dig in and finish 5th from a less than ideal position.

BDH(s) to follow…

DINKUM DIAMOND (3rd)  (H Candy)

This 5yo’s run was eye-catching on 2 fronts…

1) He had his poor draw to overcome from stall 5

and

2) He didn’t actually have ideal conditions for him to perform to his optimum

The first point is pretty self-explanatory and unlike 2nd placed Smoothtalkinrascal this lad didn’t tuck in behind the pace and stayed slightly detached from the real bulk of the pace group. I wouldn’t say he had the clearest of runs either when he was asked to pick up by his jockey and as such his 1/2 length defeat is even more noteworthy.

As for not having his conditions, consider this; ALL 4 of his career victories have come on Good to Firm, on Saturday he was racing on Good ground and a Good that had been upgraded from Good to Soft the previous day.

His Good to Firm form figures read 11673311 with the 6th and 7th placed runs coming in Graded races as a 2yo.

To add more credence to his run he was also giving weight away to all bar 2 of the field on Saturday and recorded an RPR figure that was only 1lb shy of his best, it was in fact his best figure for 9 runs.

The first and the 2nd both took the attention away from this lad and that could mean he goes into his next couple of races flying a touch under the radar and, hopefully, starting at a rather tasty price.

Conditions – For starters I think we really want to be seeing him on GOOD TO FIRM ground. With the weather now hopefully turning for the better we will surely have a good chance of that happening. He has actually been dropped 2lbs to OR 100 for his run on Saturday and if he is dealt a favour by the draw then he can land a handicap of a similar nature soon.  I also wouldn’t dismiss him running a big race in a Graded sprint if he is dealt with Good To Firm underfoot.

SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL is only a 3yo and could well turn out to be a Graded sprinter off the back of this run. Most punters will have noticed his run, however. Of the others 5th place JIROFT may well crop up somewhere as he has shown he can transfer his Italian form to over here, he remains in the peripheral vision.

DINKUM DIAMOND now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool (horse tracker in other words) and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Many thanks for joining me here on the latest BDH post and I leave you with another from the tea-cosy wearing wonder of a similar name…

Ben (BDH)