Royal Ascot Day 5: The Diamond Jubilee Stakes Dosage & Trends Analysis

Can another Oz raider follow in the hoof-prints of Black Caviar?

Amazingly that is us now staring day 5 of Royal Ascot 2013 slap bang in the chops!

Does it get any easier? Does it hell! I won’t shirk my responsibilities though and I’ve tackled the tricky looking Diamond Jubilee 6f blitz full-on and smashed it over the *coupon with a twin Dosage & Trends assault. I’ve also taken a look at the fascinating puzzle that is the 29 runner Wokingham Stakes and pulled together a pace map for your perusal. Interestingly the race also contains 2 (yes TWO!) BDH to follow horses. But more on both those races in a bit…

*Coupon is Scottish slang for head/face

Day 4 at Royal Ascot (or Friday as some may prefer to call it!) was far from a day of heavy hitting for me. I was pleased, however, to see the Ballydoyle inmate LEADING LIGHT fire in a battling victory in the Queens Vase. Mainly because it bolstered the Montjeu offspring record  over 2m+ at the track. I like those angles, so I like to see them stand up under pressure, I’m a man of simple pleasures! LEADING LIGHT is a gutsy, battling sort of colt and I like his attitude, it will be interesting to see how he is campaigned from here as I think he has plenty to offer.

Performance of the day has to go, however, to SKY LANTERN. That was a mightily impressive display in the Coronation Stakes and fully confirmed the impression that she is a filly right out of the top drawer. She scored full marks on my trends for the race so I wasn’t surprised by the win, but the way she won from her tricky draw DID surprise me. The ‘Sky’ could well be the limit.

On the polling front it didn’t pan out for you guys as BATTLE OF MARENGO was gunned down late by the charging HILLSTAR and Ryan Moore. Never mind though as you have one more chance, as a collective group, to nail a Royal Ascot BDH polling victory…

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Before I lavish you with the final FREE BDH Royal Ascot analysis guide of the week it’s time to put the cavalry charge that is the Wokingham under a bit of scrutiny.

I’m not sure if it is the racing gods conspiring for us or against us but we have ended up with 2 recent BDH to follow horses going to battle here; YORK GLORY & DINKUM DIAMOND.

Of the two of them I would say it is DINKUM DIAMOND that has the best of the draw, however, YORK GLORY should also just have enough from his draw to hook onto the back of the pace.

Here is how I see the pace working out…

Wokingham

I’m thinking it is low to middle that has the call here. Obviously that suits DINKUM more than YORK but I can see a situation where the high numbers swing down low early and hook onto the back of the main group.

I also fired the field through some primary trends…

15/16 aged 4, 5 or 6 

14/16 top 4 finish LTO

14/16 rated 102 or less

After that you are still left with around a third of the field but importantly it still has DINKUM & YORK in the frame.

Both look to have conditions in their favour and at the prices – YORK GLORY 16-1, DINKUM DIAMOND 25/1 – I’m happy to have them both on my side.

Even if they don’t fire today they won’t be dropping off the to follow list, there is every chance it will be a messy race.

Now onto the final race in focus for the week; The Diamond Jubilee.

From an analysis side of things this is far from clear cut (as you will see from the guide). There are a lot of runners very close together on the trends and the Dosage doesn’t cut a big enough swathe through the field for it to be of any real significance. Regardless I have given my two tuppence worth for you all to consider…

>>>Free Diamond Jubilee Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Hopefully you have all enjoyed the BDH analysis through this Royal Ascot week. As always it has been a tricky assignment and personally I’m glad I cherry-picked my targets.

By the way can anyone find me a video of BILLIE MAGERN holding on at the end at Market Rasen yesterday!? In twitter speak I am still #gutted ! Sterling effort from the Summer Stunner though…

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Ben (BDH)

Royal Ascot Day 4: Pointers, Pace & Pedigree…

Will the Guineas 1-2 fight out the finish again today?

Day 4 of Royal Ascot 2013 doesn’t hold a huge deal of interest for me if I’m honest, nothing I want to put a guide together for anyway. Instead what I have for you is a few trends pointers, pace maps and Dosage profiles for you to add into your own analysis.

As always though lets take a quick look back at yesterday’s race in focus; The Ascot Gold Cup.

First up I have to say, on reflection, it was a slightly unsatisfactory race. They crawled along for the first 4 or so furlongs and even turning for home they were still quite well bunched. The last thing I wanted to see was SADDLERS ROCK & COLOUR VISION trying to make the pace in the early stages, the simple facts are that front-runners struggle to win this race, especially when they are setting no sort of pace. I was slightly happier when EARL OF TINSDAL took up the lead but even then he took a long time to inject any sort of pace.   Personally I wouldn’t be too convinced how strong the form will prove to be for this renewal.

On the figures front here is how the short-list played out…

SADDLERS ROCK  (15/18) – 8th at 9/2

COLOUR VISION (15/18) – 4th at 12/1

LAST TRAIN (15/18) – 11th at 14/1

TIMES UP (13/18) – 13th at 11/1

MODEL PUPIL (13/18) – 7th at 33/1

RITE OF PASSAGE (13/18) – N/R

COLOUR VISION looked the most likely to do the business and credit where credits due it was a big run and some sort of return to form. Front-running or at least sitting right on the pace isn’t his cup of tea and if there is one that do I want to take from the race it may well be him.

Yesterday’s poll was also a tad unsatisfactory for us. The Lark was an early enough N/R so that didn’t effect things too much but the late withdrawal of Alive Alive Oh pretty much screwed the poll over! Don’t worry though, I’m happy to pull a veil over that one and let you redeem yourselves by taking part in today’s vote…

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Now onto a few pointers for day 4 of Royal Ascot 2013…

2:30 Albany Stakes

2yo fillies over a straight 6 furlongs, not really my usual area of attack I’ll be honest! Obviously there isn’t much to go on with this lightly raced bunch, even the Dosage doesn’t really help matters, but there are a couple of trends that may ‘very mildly’ help to narrow the field…

11/11 had 1 or 2 previous career starts

9/11 ran within the past 30 days

7/11 won last time out

To be honest that doesn’t chop off much of the field at all! It’s one of those types of races.

The pace bias is obviously important in these large field sprints but again we have little to go on and no real solid idea of how these fillies are likely to ply their trade on the pace front. Based on what we have seen from them so far this is ‘potentially’ how the pace ‘may’ work out…

Albany Stakes

All a bit of guess work but from the limited data we have so far it could be a middle to high pace bias, not something I will stick the mortgage on though!!

Essentially I’m not getting involved in this. If you are able to use anything from the above to help you then great, personally it will be a note taking race for myself.

3:05 King Edward VII Stakes

A short-priced Ballydoyle fav taking a whack out of the market here so if you want to be against him you will have some juicy odds on your side.

This is a fairly strong Dosage race so lets see if that side of things paints any sort of picture for us…

King Edward VII Dosage Trends

DP          15/15 had 12 points or more in DP

                13/15 had 22 points or more in DP

               

DI            11/15 had a DI of 1.29 or below

                0/15 had a DI below 0.65

               

CD          11/15 had a CD of 0.33 or below

                1/15 had a CD below -0.06

               

DPA       (13/15) – DQ – 5 / 20+ – 8 / PATB – 0

Applying that to today’s small but select field gives us…

Snug Fit

CONTRIBUTER

5-3-10-5-1 DQ 24 1.18 0.25
THA ‘IR 2-3-10-3-2 DQ 20 1.00

0.00

Can’t be discounted

HAVANA BEAT

1-2-5-2-0

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10

1.22

0.20

FANTASTIC MOON

1-1-7-1-2

PATB

12

0.85

-0.17

Not ideal

MUTASHADED

1-0-6-5-0

/

12

0.50

-0.25

GREATWOOD

2-0-11-7-2

20+

22

0.52

-0.32

Wide of the mark

BATTLE OF MARENGO

8-3-13-4-0

20+

28

1.67

0.54

HILLSTAR

4-3-10-0-1

/

18

2.00

0.50

Interestingly that plonks the fav outwith the majority ranges.

Is he good enough to overcome his Dosage figures and the penalty he carries? He could be quite a bit ahead of this bunch and it won’t really be a surprise to me if he laughs in the face of his Dosage negativity here. If you want a negative to try and take him on though, there you go…

3:45 Coronation Stakes

A healthy turn out for this fillies Grade 1 and we have both the English & Irish 1000 Guineas winners in attendance.

The Dosage isn’t a huge help in this race and I also fired through the trends and the top 2 came out as SKY LANTERN (13/13) and JUST THE JUDGE (12/13); no real surprise on that score. The draw hasn’t been overly kind to the 2 of them though and they may have to dig in to get a good position, so they certainly have that to overcome. I reckon I’ll sit and watch this one myself…

4:25 Wolferton Handicap

Not a race that really tickles my fancy but here are a couple of pointers if you want to get try and nail the winners…

10/11 had their last start within the past 16-60 days 

9/11 were 4yo’s

From a draw perspective, over this trip at Ascot you really don’t want to be drawn any higher than stall 11

Applying those 3 rather crude ‘rules’ leaves us with…

REWARDED – ALBASHARAH – CHAPTER SEVEN – MOBACO

Good luck if you are getting involved.

5:00 Queens Vase

Despite being a staying contest for 3yo’s this isn’t a particularly strong race for the Dosage trends at all.

Essentially this has been a market driven race with most recent winners starting in the top 3 of the market, in fact 4 of the last 5 winners have started as favourite.

In these long distance races I often look to the sire stats and over 2 miles and further at Ascot it is the MONTJEU progeny that catch my eye. Digging in to my Proform Database tells me their recent record over staying trips at the track is a rather fetching…

9/47 | 19% S/R | +£47.04 BFLSP – Win & Place 15/47 | 32% S/R

They are also winning more than the market expects them to.

A quick scan of today’s runners tells me that Montjeu has one of his kids running for him in the Queens Vase; the current 2/1 fav LEADING LIGHT.

He has a penalty to carry (only runner in field that does) but he is rated upwards of 8lbs superior to the others.

Once again, best of luck if you are getting involved.

5:35 Buckingham Palace Stakes

29 runners blitzing down the straight 7 furlong course; time to look at the draw and decipher if there is any pace bias likely to be in play…

Buckingham Palace

Hmmm…precious little clues there really as it looks a pretty even spread on the pace front. It may just favour middle to low drawn horses but the key horse could be Maverik from box 18. If he goes high then that gives them an advantage, if he stays middle then it’s a completely different complexion.  My gut feeling is that he will stay middle and it will be middle to low that is where the pace is. That, however, is only a gut feeling and nothing more.

If the bottom numbers do blitz away it could be something down low that is grabbing onto their coattails and gets a good tow into the race that eventually prevails in this puzzler.

Once again, best of luck if you are getting involved.

In essence this isn’t a Royal Ascot day I’ll get overly involved in, if indeed involved at all. There is an ‘NTF Summer Stunner‘ running at Market Rasen today who I’m much more interested in to tell the truth. If you have the FREE Summer Stunners guide you will know who I’m talking about, if not then grab yourself a copy here.

I will be back tomorrow with a full-on Dosage & Trends assault on the Diamond Jubilee Sprint as I aim to finish Royal Ascot week the way it started; with a Group 1 sprint winner!

Happy Royal Ascot punting if you do indeed plan on getting involved.

Ben (BDH)