BDH Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe – Full Analysis Guide

Sea The Stars bursts clear in the 2009 renewal. (Picture taken by Mrs NTF!)

The Arc De Triomphe. Arguably the greatest flat race in the world. It gets my vote anyway! With that in mind it would be rude of me not to put the race under full and unadulterated BDH scrutiny.

Before that, however, just a wee line on our BDH qualifier at Ascot, DINKUM DIAMOND…

BDH Saturday runner: DINKUM DIAMOND (Ascot)

He was a no bet anyway but I always like to keep a close eye on our squad even when the money isn’t down.

I thought he ran well in 5th without ever really threatening the places. The ground was upgraded to Good to Soft from Soft so conditions would not have been as bad for him as they were predicted to be. If we can get him on Good or better before the season is out (Good to Firm still the preferable option) then I will be happy.

As for the winner of the race (breath…5, 6, 7, 8…) I think the less said about him the better! He obviously felt the pressure of running with the BDH cash down in previous runs but once unleashed from our shackles he was free to get a photo-finish in his favour. Frustrating but racing has a habit of doing that sometimes…

2013 Arc De Triomphe Analysis…

Before I get onto the analysis of this years renewal I have a wee poll for you all…

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Now onto the serious stuff…

From a personal perspective I was all set to pull the trigger on NOVELLIST. He ticked most of the boxes in my guide and had clearly been primed for this race since his King George romp at Ascot back in July. I was ready to put the money down and highlight him as the main selection in the BDH guide… Alas, it was not to be. Turns out he ate some dodgy snails, or some of that horrible Pâté they serve over there and has been declared unfit to race (fever/temperature is the official line).

For me then it was back to the drawing board to sift through the remainder of the field to look for the most likely winner and an alternative selection for a two-pronged BDH attack on France’s showpiece contest.

All the usual in-depth BDH analysis for the 2013 renewal of the Pric De L’Arc De Triomphe can be downloaded from the link below…

>>>Full BDH Arc De Triomphe Analysis Guide

Remember there is plenty of information in the guide so you don’t just have to follow my selections if you don’t want to.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and let’s hope for a cracking race!

FREE NTF Guides…

I am in the process of pulling together 2 new and FREE NTF guides for the forthcoming National Hunt season.

One is a Scottish themed micro-system (VERY easy to use) and the other is my own ‘to follow list’ for the forthcoming season. It will be slightly different to the ones that are already floating about out there and will include quite a few ‘dark horses’ that probably won’t appear on other lists.

These FREE guides will be EXCLUSIVE to members of my FREE NTF list so if you want them you need to join at the following link…

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Happy Punting

Ben (BDH)

BDH Saturday Qualifier: Dinkum done by the downpour?

Diamond in the rough?!?

One BDH qualifier for us on Saturday but is the ground playing for or against us at Ascot?

Before I get on to that though we have a wee bit of house keeping for our midweek BDH runner…

Thursday BDH runner – MISSION APPROVED (Warwick)

Another placed effort for the squad, this time a 3rd placed 1 length defeat at BFSP 7.4. I think we were a smidgen unlucky here as James Doyle had to get across early from the wide draw and that may have just left him a tad short for his finishing effort. MA was in the lead entering the final furlong but he just couldn’t sustain the effort all the way to the line. I was half banking on a decent amount of rain falling by the time our race was off (my original post on Mission Approved stated that ground with cut in it would help) but it just didn’t come in enough buckets to properly change the ground; when you need the rain it doesn’t come and when you don’t want it (like when you are walking the dogs!) it comes down in buckets!

Anyway I’m not overly disappointed with this run, it was a tough (although not impossible) draw to overcome but this was a decent effort. He has now run twice for us and been beaten a head and a length and I’m still happy to keep him in the squad for now. Hopefully he will get ground with a bit of cut in it sooner rather than later…

Now onto Saturday’s qualifier…

BDH Runner: DINKUM DIAMOND 1.30 Ascot

Ascot is currently SOFT so that quite simply means NO BET for us. We want Good to Firm or at the least Good but Soft is a no go. If he somehow wins on the Soft stuff then the world will have dropped off it’s axis!

DD has run 3 times for us since making the squad. We managed to grab some nice E/W profits when he ran on the Good to Firm at Ascot (3rd at 22-1, was 33’s in the morning), he got a troubled passage in the Stewards Cup next time out and then the ground went against him/us at York and he was a no-bet.

There will be others much more suited to the underfoot conditions in this race and I’ll happily leave him alone in this Listed contest. We may indeed struggle to get him on his favoured conditions now before this season is out…

Arc De Triomphe – Sunday

I am neck-deep in National Hunt stuff at the minute but I have taken time out to put Sunday’s big race at Longchamp under the ‘Trosage’ microscope and I will have a full and free BDH analysis guide ready for you to download here on the Blog.

To make sure you don’t miss out on this free and alternative guide for one of the worlds most famous and prestigious races simply join the NTF/BDH FREE list, where you will also be able to download a clutch of free racing guides and mini-angles…

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Ben (BDH/NTF)

Royal Ascot Sprints: Do you want to be making the pace, behind the pace or off the pace?

The 5 day extravaganza of Royal Ascot kicks off tomorrow with equine stars from all over the planet looking to strut their stuff in front of Her Maj.

I plan on covering 1 race a day here at BDH, in a similar fashion to the way I covered Epsom for you. Unfortunately I don’t have time this week to produce the full guide (usually I have a subscription based service for Royal Ascot) but the FREE 1 race a day guides should be excellent value for you all :). I have had plenty of you asking if there will be some sort of subscription service from myself for this flat season but as you have probably guessed the answer to that is no. This has also raised the question of will there be National Hunt service for 2013/14? The answer to that is a resounding YES! Don’t worry on this score, the NTF service will resume in October time with the usual full and in-depth race coverage as well as a number of new and exciting features for NTF members.

Now I have cleared that up, today I want to take a quick look at pace profiles at Ascot over the straight 5f and 6f tracks. Obviously at some tracks it can pay to be making the pace over the sprint trips (front-runners) and at other tracks the best option is to strike late from out the back (hold-up horses). There are a number of races over these sprint trips at Royal Ascot and they will all be well contested affairs with little room for maneuver, you not only want your horse drawn where the pace is but you will also want it in the correct position to strike and maximize it’s abilities.

So, are there any biases when it comes to running styles and pace positions over the sprint trips at Ascot?

To find out the answer I opened up my trusty Proform database and started digging. I looked at all races at the track from 2008 to present over both 5f & 6f and also filtered it to fields of 10 or more runners.

5 Furlongs races at Ascot – Pace Analysis

In the period analysed there were 47 races over the 5 furlong trip, contested by 725 runners. Here is the running-style breakdown…

Front runners –  11/58 | 19% S/R | +£111.50 BFLSP – W&P 17/58 | 29% S/R

Close to Pace – 25/350 | 7% S/R | +£34.96 BFLSP – W&P 87/350 | 25% S/R

Held-up – 11/315 | 3.5% S/R | -£65.05 BFLSP – W&P 45/315 | 14% S/R

Front runners win more than they should based on market expectations, Close to Pace runners win about what the market expects and Hold Up runners win less than expected.

Over the 5 furlong trip at Ascot the figures tell us that you ideally want to be sitting close to the pace. Hold-Up runners win their share of races but it isn’t as much as the market expects. The most interesting angle is undoubtedly the front runners over this minimum trip as they markedly out-perform market expectations, have provided huge profits to level stakes and have won as many races as the hold-up runners but from a massively smaller sample size.

6 Furlongs races at Ascot – Pace Analysis

In the period analysed there were 63 races over the 6 furlong trip, contested by 937 runners. Here is the running-style breakdown…

Front runners – 6/79 | 7.5% S/R | -£29.81 BFLSP – W&P 14/79 | 18% S/R

Close to Pace – 27/437 | 6% S/R | -£104.70 BFLSP – W&P 83/437 | 19% S/R

Held-up – 30/457 | 6.5% S/R | +£21.13 BFLSP – W&P 103/457 | 23% S/R

Interestingly all 3 running styles win roughly the amount of race the market expects them to.

So stepping up a furlong tells us there isn’t any real bias in terms of running styles although the drop off in winning front-runners compared to 5 furlongs is noticeable, it is clearly tougher to hang on out front over 6f than it is over 5f.

Whilst I was at it I also wanted to take a look to see if any jockey had a stand-out record over the sprint trips at Ascot, specifically in trying to negotiate the really big fields (16+ runners). Nothing stood out for me over 5f but there was one guy who’s record over 6f in large fields is particularly strong; Mr Johnny Murtagh…

J Murtagh record at Ascot in 6f races with 16 or more runners

5/13 | 38% S/R | +£19.70 BFLSP

It is a small enough sample size but nevertheless it is a fairly solid indication that he can place his horse in the perfect position to strike in these tricky contests.

Things improve if we only look at his runners that started at 10/1 or less…

5/8 | 63% S/R | +£24.83 BFLSP

Again it isn’t huge numbers we are dealing with here but nevertheless it is worth keeping in the think tank…

I will be back tomorrow with a FREE race analysis guide on day one of Royal Ascot 2013.

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Ben (BDH)