BDH Saturday Qualifiers: Mob-handed in search of Gold & Silver…

Will 38 years of Scottish hurt end with Jack Dexter capturing Gold?

A busy day in store for us on Saturday as we fire double barreled assaults upon both the Ayr Gold and Silver Cups!

As well as our 4 Ayr raiders we also have last weekend’s unlucky 2nd, STEPS, ‘stepping’ into Group company for the first time at Newbury.

Before all that, however, we have to deal with Fridays runners…

WAKING WARRIOR 2.20 Ayr

12th of 24. Pace was up his side. Average run. Never looked like landing a blow. Time to drop him from the squad. He was staying on at the end but to be honest I’m just not feeling it and I’m happy to drop WW from the squad.

TAWHID 4.50 Newbury

Winner! Job done! He won how I hoped/expected/how he should have. Soft ground is simply a must for him and Silvestre De Sousa is a massive bonus when he takes the ride. His place in the squad is safe, lets hope there are a couple more spots for him before the season is out.

Now onto Saturday’s action…

Saturday’s BDH runners…

BDH Runners:YEEOOW & THUNDERBALL 2.40 Ayr

First things first lets take a look at the pace map for this 27 runner sprint…

Ayr Silver Cup

Pace coming from all over the track, which is handy as we are berthed in Stall 1 (THUNDERBALL) and stall 21 (YEEOOW). If anything there is slightly more pace down the bottom end (low numbers) but there isn’t enough to make a definitive pre-race conclusion. On the pace angle we are good with both. With the pace map looking like this I’m very happy to be hedging our bets with 1 high and 1 low.

Let’s deal with our 2 runners individually….

THUNDERBALL – Ran a very sound race at Doncaster last week (3rd), only 3lbs shy of his career best on the figures, and the 2lb raise he receives for the run still leaves him 1lb below his highest ever winning mark; good.

My initial assessment of him was that we want 6 furlongs and Soft and that’s what we get here; doubly good.

A straight track was also a preferable condition for him and he also gets that here, the only real ‘reservation’ is that this is a race worth more than 20k to the winner, an area he is yet to prove he is totally up to. However, he meets everything else and with Queally remaining in the saddle (form figures of 016813 when riding the horse) I’m more than happy to take a punt at prices of 20-1+. Needless to say in a race of this many runners I will be covering him in an each-way capacity.

YEEOOW – Another that ran a solid 3rd at Doncaster last week, running 1lb below his career best whilst at the same time meeting with ground with cut in it for the first time. Joey Haynes gets the leg up here and his 5lb claim takes the horse down to a mark of 87, 3lbs below his highest ever winning mark.

Off the back of last weeks effort and with the claimer making things interesting I think we need to play our boy again here. Like Thunderball I’ll also take this lad in an each-way capacity.

I would often try and find something else to have on my side in a race with this many runners but to be honest nothing really stands out at me, well nothing that tempts me into a bet. I’ll let it roll and just go to war with our 2 BDH warriors.

BDH Runner: STEPS 3.30 Newbury

Clearly Roger Varian’s hand has been forced to a certain extent here by the consistency of his horse and another rise in the weights (up 3lbs to 104) has made the trainer look to Group contests to get his 5yo back in the winners enclosure. I initially suggested that I didn’t think he would be up to this level but his last run has made me rethink that opinion.

He gets his bare minimum 5f trip here (well bar 34 yards!) and also his favoured Soft ground. Andrea Atzeni back in the plate is also interesting as together they have an eye-catching record of 131585. This wouldn’t be the toughest Group 3 we have seen and with Steps in such rude health I reckon it’s worth taking an interest in him again here. There is plenty of 8-1 flying around so I’ll probably look to take him Each-Way if I can.

BDH Runners: JACK DEXTER & DUKE OF FIRENZE 3.50 Ayr

Huge field again so let’s first take a look at the pace map…

Ayr Gold Cup

Like the Silver Cup there does seem to be a decent enough spread of pace here although it may just be that it is low to middle that is the strongest zone with regards to the pace. That isn’t totally ideal for our pair, boxed in stall 22 (JACK DEXTER) & 20 (DUKE OF FIRENZE), but it isn’t catastrophic either. It does mean that I’ll probably be looking for some sort of cover bet from the bottom half though. We will get to that later.

Let’s deal with our 2 BDH runners individually first….

JACK DEXTER – 110 is a hefty mark to win any handicap from but Advanced won this race from a mark of 109 in 2007 so it can be done and JACK DEXTER is certainly a progressive and classy beast, as shown by his close 4th in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot. The soft ground will be perfect (form of 11111) and even if it dries out to Good to Soft I wouldn’t be put off (form of 261). He has good track form (531 – including a very comfortable victory in last years Bronze Cup), Graham Lee knows him very well (1541101041), he runs well in 16+ runner fields (741110064) and runs well in September/October time (4111).

I see very little negatives for him and the only small worry I have is the draw. At current odds I’m definitely on and once again I will look to cover him each-way.

DUKE OF FIRENZE – Hmmm…Duke Of Firenze (DOF)…what to do with DOF. My feeling is that 6 furlongs on soft ground will not suit. He has always struck me as one that is more at home on the top of the ground and his 2 runs on ground softer than Good have not promised too much.

Ryan Moore doesn’t make the trip up for the ride although I must admit Cathy Gannon is an interesting booking. She has ridden once for Stoute in the past 5 seasons and that was a winner. Is this a handy spare ride or have they booked her especially? It’s probably the former and in any case it isn’t really enough to swing me into a solid punt.

He is a tasty price for sure but I think he is a tricky ride and I would probably rather have a jockey that has ridden him before taking the mount here. I would also rather it was Good or better ground. If the pace does end up being down low then there is also a chance he doesn’t get a tow into the contest and as he seems to enjoy coming through runners late on that could prove to be a bit of a problem.

All in all I just have a few too many questions about DOF today and personally I won’t be backing him here.

So that leaves us with JACK DEXTER going into battle in the ultra competitive 27 Ayr Gold Cup; time to look for a bit of back up me thinks!

I want 2 others on my side here and those are GABRIEL’S LAD from stall 13 and OUR JONATHAN from stall 12.

I ran the entire field through my extended trends analysis and only 1 runner passed all 15 trends, that was GABRIEL’S LAD. He is an improving sort who was only just pipped by our BDH runner Redvers last time out and he also has winning form on soft ground. His mark of 99 looks workable and he is one I want on my side.

OUR JONATHON won this race 2 years ago, is fantastically well handicapped (10lbs below last winning mark & 19lbs below his peak rating) and will love the ground. He missed the break last week in the Portland at Doncaster but still ran well enough in defeat without managing to get overly involved. There is plenty in his favour here and his odds are too tempting to ignore.

Summary of runners…

2.40 Ayr

THUNDERBALL – Bet Each-Way

YEEOOW – Bet Each-Way

3.30 Newbury

STEPS – Bet Each-Way

3.50 Ayr

JACK DEXTER – Bet Each-Way

DUKE OF FIRENZE – No Bet

Additional selections…

Each-Way on GABRIEL’S LAD & OUR JONATHON – 3.50 Ayr

These cavalry charge sprints are always tricky to nail (bloody tricky!) but I feel we go in with solid chances of collecting at least some each-way spoils, hopefully much much more.

Best of luck if you are getting involved

Ben (BDH)

p.s. We are fast approaching October so if you are looking to join the full NTF service for the 2013/14 National Hunt season then make sure you join the FREE list so that you are eligible for the discounted sign-up offer…

>>>Join the FREE NTF service

Even if you are not looking to join the full service there are still plenty of FREE racing guides and betting systems for you to download, with more to follow as we reach the National Hunt season proper.

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BDH Friday Qualifiers: Last chance saloon for WW & Taw?

Are 2 of our squad drinking in the last chance saloon today?

Two of our BDH squad take to the rain softened turf today with WAKING WARRIOR running up at Ayr and TAWHID running down at Newbury. Both horses potentially running in the last chance saloon as far as being fully paid up members of our BDH offensive line.

Before I give you my take on their chances here are my thoughts on our Wednesday runner MISSION APPROVED… ‘agggghhhhh not another bloody photo finish 2nd?!?!?’

Only kidding (kinda!!), here are my real thoughts…

MISSION APPROVED 8.45 Kempton (AW)

Whether it was Richard Kingscote stealing the race with an early move or it was in fact James Doyle ‘losing’ the race by getting his mount going too late is irrelevant now, the facts are the line came a yard or 2 too soon for our lad and we ending up going down by an ever diminishing head. It can be a game of fractions this racing malarkey and we just came out on the wrong side of it. There was nothing in this run to suggest we should take him off our list and for now he remains as part of the team. Hopefully we will see him back on turf next time out…

Now to tackle today’s runners…

BDH Runner: WAKING WARRIOR 2.20 Ayr

I’m possibly being a bit harsh on saying this is the last chance saloon for this guy. In fairness he hasn’t had the best of the draws on his last 2 runs, however, I don’t want to give him too many more chances as his flat record does give me a wee bit of concern (0 from 25). I am happy to wade in with him today though as there is plenty of juice in his price to warrant our involvement.

He actually ran a decent 5th in this contest last season off the same mark on heavy ground so we can be fairly confident the track and underfoot conditions will be fine for him.

From a pace angle he should be OK, there are pace horse close enough to him to give him a good tow into the contest. To be honest there is pace from a few sources right across the track so baring something unusual happening with the grouping splits he should have as good a chance as any. The one worry would be a large group far side (low numbers) and a small group near side (high numbers) and our boy stuck in the near side. In the big sprint on Thursday at the track they split into 3 groups and that situation here would be perfect for our lad.

In a race of this size and with the odds available on our BDH warrior I’m happy to pitch in with an each-way punt.

BDH Runner: TAWHID 4.50 Newbury

Soft ground; now we are talking! This is the real ground we have been waiting for. He has run 3 times for us since he was added to the squad, for the first & second of those runs he was a ‘no-bet’ as the ground was officially described as good. He ran well enough on both those runs without winning but from a punting angle it wasn’t for us anyway. Last time out (3rd run for us) he had Good to Soft ground, which was closer to what we are after, but it is safe to say that he was given an…um…interesting ride. Whether that was pilot error or riding to instruction isn’t clear but whatever it was it clearly didn’t play out well. Today we have Soft underfoot conditions; game on!

The Soft/Heavy ground form of Tawhid reads 113 (3rd in a Group 2) and Silvestre De Sousa back in the plate is a huge bonus (the pairing have a 1432 record together). Here he steps back down out of Group company for this first time since his maiden victory last October and the 3yo weight allowance he receives here sways things very much in his favour.

This is a golden opportunity for him and I’ll be backing him for the win. If he doesn’t convert then his place on the BDH squad is very much in jeopardy…

Ayr Gold & Silver Cups… 

At the minute we are double handed on the BDH front in both these contests, fingers crossed all line up on the day. Make sure you check back in either tonight or Saturday morning to see my full thoughts on these squad members. Needless to say the Ayr Gold Cup is very much a race I want us to nail…

Ben (BDH)

BDH Qualifier: Approved on an All-Weather Mission…

We make a first trip onto the all-weather with our BDH squad as one of our recent additions tackles the polytrack at Kempton’s evening meeting…

BDH Runner: MISSION APPROVED 8.45 Kempton (AW)

To be fair this wasn’t really the area I was hoping he would be tackling but we will roll with it.

He is back up to 6f for today’s assignment which should be perfectly fine and he has run well at the track on his only other visit; 2nd over 7f as a 2yo. He does have a victory on the Lingfield all-weather so as far as the underfoot surface goes I don’t think we have any worries.

On his last start at Sandown he finished a neck behind Dungannon and we all know what Dunny did on his next start! Joe Packet who finished 7th in that Sandown race came out and ran a decent 5th at Doncaster last week and ran to a mark of 91 (on RPR figures) so the early signs are that the Sandown race is working out quite well from a form perspective.

This race signifies a small drop in class for our lad and as I think there is still plenty improvement to come I would be disappointed if he doesn’t get involved in the finish of this race. At around 4-1 I’m happy to back him. Hopefully he wins this then they go looking for a turf ‘mission’ before the season is out.

NTF Analysis

The Kerry National takes place today at Listowel and I have a full Dosage & Trends breakdown of the race over on NTF…

>>>Kerry National Analysis available on NTF

Best of luck if you get involved today

Ben (BDH)

BDH Weekend Review: My boot scootin’ baby is drivin’ me crazy…

Not sure what is worse. This Steps photo or the Steps photo (finish) from Saturday!!

We had 3 BDH runners at Doncaster last week and all 3 placed. With a bit more luck it could have been even better but we can’t complain…well maybe a bit about STEPS!! I mean come on! The least we deserved was a dead-heat!! Even trainer Roger Varian demanded to see the print!

Anyway there is nothing we can do about that agonizing 2nd placed finish so here are my proper thoughts (as opposed to my “what the f@*k happened there” thoughts!) on our Saturday BDH runner…

STEPS – 2.40 Doncaster

At the end of the day I said there was enough juice in his price (at time of writing) to get on each-way and he duly delivered that part of the bargain. That was his 3rd 2nd placed finish in a row but to be fair to him I don’t think he is un-genuine or quirky or a dodge-pot, far from it in fact, when you get beat by a pixel in a 22 runner-handicap it’s just the roll of the dice going against you.

He once again fired in a career best on the figures (by 5lbs) and we have to expect another rise in the weights for him. At the moment I’m not going to drop him from our squad, there is every reason to think he is still improving, however, I wait with bated breath to see exactly what punishment Mr Handicapper deals out to him. There are no immediate entries for him so we can let the dust settle on this result and see what comes out in the wash.

New Squad Member(s)…

There are none! I had a look at last weeks action but to be honest nothing stood out at me. I again half thought about adding MONSIEUR CHEVALIER to the team after his run in the Portland but in the end I kept him on the reserve squad.

Once the gates opened he essentially had no chance. For starters he missed the break and was instantly on the back foot and secondly he was caught on the wrong side. Five of the field stayed on the far side and the best finisher was Prodigality in 13th; they were too far away from the pace to make any impact. MONSIEUR CHEVALIER had to work his way onto the back of this small group but as the race developed he somehow found himself in no-mans land in the middle of the track and basically had nothing to aim at. He actually did wonders to finish only 8 lengths back in 15th  (2nd in his group) and it was noticeable that his jockey considerably eased off in the final furlong.

He is a horse I will keep an eye on and may back, without him officially being in the BDH attack squad.

We have the Ayr Gold Cup festival at the end of this week and there is a chance we go into the big race itself mob-handed, there are a few BDH runners entered and, interestingly, a few of our previous squad members who have already done their work for us.

Hopefully we have runners in the Bronze, Silver AND Gold Cup so that we don’t have all our BDH eggs in one basket!

NTF National Hunt Service… 

As most of you will be aware I will be opening the doors to my full NTF subscription service next month. I will be implementing some of the BDH methods into the NTF service this season, the NTF Handicap Sleepers is a new addition I’m particularly excited about.

Most of you reading this will already be on my free list but if you are not and you are looking to join my NTF subscription service I would advise you to join the FREE list sooner rather than later. This is the ONLY place you can get a discount to the NTF subscription service for the 2013/14 National Hunt season. (You also get a bundle of FREE guides when you join the FREE list, with more in the pipeline soon to be released).

Join the NTF/BDH FREE list today >>> NTF FREE list – Discounts and Free Guides available

Ben (BDH)

 

Ladbrokes St Leger: Dosage & Trends Analysis

The final domestic Classic rumbles into action today at Town Moor on day 4 of the 2013 St Leger Festival with the lung bursting St Leger taking centre stage at 3.50.

I have a full Dosage & Trends guide available for you later on in the Blog for the big one but first I’ll give you my thoughts on yesterday’s BDH runner as well looking at today’s BDH qualifier and some Portland Handicap analysis.

Let’s start with yesterdays BDH runners…

YEEOOW – 4.25 Doncaster

Finished 3rd, each-way money secured, handled the ground, I’m happy. The field split into 2 groups which didn’t really help our lad but he gave plenty of indications that he is still improving and he very much stays on the list after this run.

I’m hopeful he can land something for us before the season is out.

Now onto today’s action…

BDH Runner: STEPS 2.40 Doncaster – Portland Handicap

Ahh Steps…Steps…Steps. He probably should have won last time out and he again finds himself climbing the weights without winning. He is now 11lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark and 17lbs higher than his last winning mark. It’s starting to concern me for sure.

I would also slightly prefer him over a bare 5f rather this 5 & 1/2f.

On the plus side he has ground with cut in it which is a huge positive and he has winning form at Doncaster.

His hold up style of running should also be a bonus in a race that looks to hold plenty of pace up front.

He has fired in 2 career best’s on the figures on his last 2 starts so there is reason to believe he can overcome this mark.

Despite a couple of small reservations I’m happy to pitch in with him here today. The Varian yard are in bouncing form and with enough juice in the price to get on each-way I’m happy to have our BDH warrior STEPS on our side.

As is usual the case in race of this stature I’m also looking for another runner to carry my money. Let’s start by looking at the pace chart to see how the race is likely to shape up…

Portland 2013

To be honest the pace map doesn’t give us a great deal of help. The signs are that there is pace from all over the track so from this angle I can see no clear advantage to top, middle or bottom.

I would expect the field to split into at least 2 groups, with each group having solid front-runners at the head of affairs.

My next stop would usually be a quick delve into the trends but personally I don’t think this is a great race for that approach. I could fire up some trends without any problem but from past experience it wouldn’t be the strongest from the trends angle.

Instead I’ve had a look at the field from a handicapping perspective and picked out a clutch of runners that I have marked up as ‘well-in’ on old form, whether that is old handicap form or indeed old graded form.

That gave me the following shortlist…

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER

OUR JONATHAN

ANGELS WILL FALL

ANGELS WILL FALL has never struck me as one to enjoy a large field and she has been really struggling of late so she gets punted from that list fairly readily.

The other 2 are much more interesting to me…

OUR JONATHAN finds himself slipping to a very handy mark indeed. 2 years ago he won the Ayr Gold Cup quite comfortably off a mark of 105, today he runs off  97. We know he handles ground with cut in it, we know he handles large fields and we know he is classy on his day. He has also run some decent races at Donny without actually winning so his 0 from 6 track figures are a lot better than they first seem. At the odds available he is worthy of consideration.

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER is one that is very much of interest to me. I’ll let you into a little secret; he almost made the BDH squad after his last start. That was last weekend at Ascot behind our boy Redvers in what was only his 3rd ever handicap start. That race was over 7f and he made a serious move to hit the front around 2f out, however, as soon as he got there he smashed into his stamina wall and back-peddled rapidly.

It’s easy to forget he was once rated as high as 116 after a close 2nd in the 2011 Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot. This year he has been tried over 8f (x3) & 7f (x4) and only once over 6f. Admittedly he did run a sound race in 5th over 7f at Glorious Goodwood in the Lennox Stakes but apart from that every sinew of him looks like it has been crying out for a return to 6f, if not 5f.

I’m not put off by the fact he only ran 7 days ago as his form figures when returning within a week read -12- and his form figures when returning within 2 weeks read -121115050- he clearly has no problem with a quick return.

We know he has the speed for this trip, we know he handles the ground and with jockey Natasha Easton taking off 5lbs we can be pretty confident the mark of 91 (taking the claim into account) makes him an interesting proposition.

I’ll take STEPS (BDH Qualifier) and MONSIEUR CHEVALIER (BDH almost squad member) as my 2 bets in this valuable sprint and I’ll ponder over whether to include OUR JONATHAN in calculations as well.

Ladbrokes St Leger full Dosage & Trends Analysis

We move from the sprinting division to the staying division with one fell swoop and put the St Leger under the full ‘Trosage’ microscope.

It doesn’t look the strongest St Leger in recent memory but someone has to win it and with it generally proving to be a strong race for both Dosage and Trends it was a no-brainer to give it a full and thorough seeing to.

The full analysis guide can be downloaded from the following link…

>>>Full BDH St Leger Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Best of luck if you are getting involved today.

Sky Bet Super 6 – Jackpot now £1 million!!!

I know I keep banging on about this but this weekend it is a £1 million jackpot! And it’s still FREE to enter!!

You do need a Sky Bet account to play but you don’t need to deposit any money to enter the Super 6 competition.

If you don’t have one I suggest you grab one now and get your Super 6 predictions in ASAP!

>>>Enter your Super 6 predictions for a chance to win £1 million!

Ben (BDH)

BDH Qualifier: “I feel good!”…

…hopefully we will be feeling good at the end of the day anyway!

We have another BDH warrior getting ready to do battle for us on day 3 of the St Leger meeting. Before I get onto that, however, a quick word on Thursdays runner…

THUNDERBALL – 4.25 Doncaster

Gaaagh that was a close one! To be honest I can’t knock the run at all, he was beaten a neck & a neck into 3rd and battled on all the way to the line. There was serious money flooding on to the horse all day but hopefully some of you got some sort of price. The race kinda fell apart throughout the day with 7 non-runners but at least the each-way money was secured with his 3rd placed finish.

THUNDERBALL stays on the BDH list and hopefully he can land us something soon, with the ground likely to be playing to his strengths until seasons end.

We also came agonizingly close with our handicap sleeper runner at Epsom. MY KINGDOM ran a blinding race in 2nd and at one stage it looked for all money that he would land us the spoils. Somehow and from somewhere Brocklebank sprouted wins from out the back and nailed our lad on the line. I’m pretty sure he picked up a discarded rocket-pack around the 1 furlong marker to fly home and scupper our celebrations!!

Still, I know plenty of you had an each-way double on the 2 runners so all was not lost at the end of the day.

Now onto today’s James Brown inspired BDH runner…

BDH Runner: YEEOOW 4.25 Doncaster (13-09-13)

This lad is probably the only 1 of our squad that has no real conditions applied to when and where we back him and as mentioned when I added him to our squad it is a case of taking him on a race by race basis.

First up there doesn’t appear to be anything else hugely well-handicapped in this contest so on the face of it the race doesn’t look too strong, obviously a bonus for us.

YEEOOW was actually dropped 1lb for his 6th place run at Goodwood last time out and considering that was his 2nd best career performance on the figures I’m more than happy with that outcome. This is only his 11th career turf start and with the 4yo only sitting 2lbs above his highest winning mark there is plenty in his recent runs to suggest he has improvement still in him.

The ground is an unknown for Yeeoow but I’ve haven’t seen anything to suggest he won’t act on it and until I see that visual evidence I’m happy to roll with it.

From the pace viewpoint with only 14 runners going to post there is no guarantee the field will split, I can see a situation where they stick as one group. The pace-setters look to be DUBAWI SOUND in stall 4, DR RED EYE in stall 5 and ELUSIVE FLAME in stall 14. YEEOOW is in stall 13 so he at least has a pace setter beside him and should, in theory, get a decent tow into the race.

The way things stand I’m happy to play YEEOOW here, there is enough juice in his price at the minute to play him each way and at the very least we should learn a bit more about our BDH squad member, hopefully he can land us some tasty profits in the process.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and I’ll leave you today with this classic (and damn funny!) James Brown clip…

Ben (BDH)

BDH Qualifier: “They call him the winner who takes all”…

BDH Qualifier: “They call him the winner who takes all”…

…well hopefully that’s what we will be calling him at the end of the day anyway!!

Yes, we have a BDH qualifier hitting the track at Doncaster on day 2 of the St Leger meeting and for those of you that are not James Bond/Tom Jones fans and haven’t guessed who it is from the lyrical reference in the title it’s…

BDH Runner: THUNDERBALL 4.25 Doncaster (12-09-13)

My stipulations for this guy were 6 furlongs and Soft going with small preferences for a straight track and a race worth less than 20k to the winner. Here he meets 3 of those conditions (6f, straight track & race worth less than 20k) and won’t be far off meeting the ground requirements. The ground is described as Good to Soft for day 2 of the 2013 St Leger meeting and there is rain forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday evening, all in all it should lead to damp-ish conditions and ground with some sort of cut in it, perfect for our BDH warrior. Obviously the more rain the better for our lad.

On the pace/draw side of thing we are berthed in a handy slot in stall 16. The pace looks middle to high and that puts us bang there.

Here is the pace map for the 6f contest…

dONCASTER 12-09

There looks very little in the way of pace-setters down low so that should play to the hooves of those drawn middle to high, of which THUNDERBALL is one of them.

What else do we have in our favour? Well he has been dropped 2lbs since his last run at Chester. He ran poorly there but that was under conditions that were not anywhere near optimum; drop in the weights is very welcome, thank you very much Mr Handicapper.

Tom Queally gets the ride here and he gets on well with the 7yo; form figures of 01681 when teaming up and the horse’s best RPR figure of 99 was recorded with Queally on board.

THUNDERBALL is also a dual Course & Distance winner so we can be happy with the fact that he acts on the track.

I will be backing this BDH warrior here. He looks to have plenty in his favour and as already mentioned any further softening of the ground will only aid his cause.  With 22 runners set to lash down the Donny straight I will probably look to have a bit of E/W cover on him.

The one downside is that he looks like he is already being backed (I’m writing this at 6.30 on Wednesday evening!). First prices were favourable, there was 16-1 being banded about by a few of the bookmakers. However, he is being cut across the board and at time of writing 12-1 looks the best price available. I actually witnessed Bet365 cut him from 16-1 to 10-1 in one vicious swipe!! Paddy Power are even going as low as 9-1! Tight gits!

I’ll leave you today with a bit of classic Bond/Tom Jones action…

Best of luck if you are getting involved

Ben (BDH)

BDH Weekend Review: Job Dun!

Well that was a pretty good weekend!

4 BDH qualifiers – 2 winners. For good measure the Haydock Sprint Cup winner was also thrown into the mix; good work GLB.

When reviewing the weekends action for my own records I also, naturally, kept my BDH brain in full recruitment mode as I look to replace and strengthen our squad. Unfortunately nothing instantly stood out at me and I won’t add new members just for the sake of it. That would be pointless and a sure way to eek into our profits.

I have a couple of potentials in mind but I want to review the action again with a fresh mind, possibly tonight or tomorrow, and do a bit more digging into their previous form.

For now, however, I’ll give you my thoughts on our 4 weekend runners and where we go from here with them…

Weekend BDH runners…

BDH Runner: REDVERS 1.55 Ascot – 1st at BFSP 10.37

He was drawn with pace round about him and jockey Richard Kingscote gave him a superb ride, hooking behind the pace on his side instead of right out the back and cruising into contention in style; job was a good ‘un.

As far as I’m concerned for our BDH list it is “thanks and good-bye, we will call again if your services are required”. As always that doesn’t mean I won’t back him in the future but for now he drops off the BDH list after doing the job we employed him for; securing us some tasty profits!

Good lad Redvers and best of luck going forward.

BDH Runner: WAKING WARRIOR 2.00 Thirsk – 6th at BFSP 12.5

The Kevin Ryan horse always seemed to be climbing a slippy slope here and that has to go down primarily to the draw. I thought it may be tricky from his berth but I maybe gave too much credence to its effect being lessened over the furlong further. Lesson learned and for now he stays in our squad.

I want to see him get a real shot at a race from a decent draw before making a solid assessment of his position in our squad.

BDH Runner: TAWHID 2.40 Haydock – 4th at BFSP 4.92

Hmmmmm…Tawhid…hmmmmmm. Either Mosse got the tactics wrong or the tactics he was given were wrong. The horse maybe didn’t help himself too much either but the facts are he managed to meet trouble in-running and wasn’t really able show his true potential. Once in the clear, and the race was over, he looked to have plenty left to give.

I learned nothing from this run, which is a shame as he had his ground on this occasion and should have been able to show more. He stays on the list for now.

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON 5.10 Ascot 1st at BFSP 4.74

This played out perfectly for Dunny and he made no mistake this time. I was a bit concerned by the price beforehand but I managed to get 5.5 on the exchanges about 15-20 mins before the off and I was happy with that; the more I looked at the race through the day the more convinced I became that he was going to win. (I tweeted 10 mins before the off that I had backed him, for transparency’s sake).

I see no need to keep him in our squad from here on in and like Redvers we say goodbye to Dunny after his well-timed victory at Ascot.

Good job Dunny, job well done, we may well see you back in the squad at some time in the future…

The other race covered by myself was the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup…

Haydock Sprint Cup

GORDON LORD BYRON did the job in fantastic style for us and that my friends is how you win a Group 1 contest! Impressive! To be fair he had his conditions but regardless of that fact it was an almighty performance.

In the end I only went with Heeraat as my cover bet, viewing of the ground from earlier races put me off Lethal Force as did his ever diminishing price. My own pace notes suggested he wouldn’t get an easy lead and that mixed with the softened ground just didn’t sit well with me as we approached the off. It is safe to say his run shouldn’t be taken at face value, he is waaaay better than the end result and conditions simply did not play to his strengths.

Heeraat ran a very poor race but his jockey Paul Hanagan did report after the race that his mount had ‘lost it’s action’ so we maybe also shouldn’t take his run at face value either.

In the end this was all about GLB though and he confirmed that when conditions are tilted towards him he is a serious player in the Group 1 sprinting division.

BDH Handicap Sleepers…

Some of you probably noticed that one of the handicap sleepers in my recent FREE guide was running at York yesterday; TIGER REIGNS in the 3.35. You will also have hopefully noted he was clearly a ‘no-bet’.

The field size was way outside his comfort zone and he was also running over a trip that was 2.5 furlongs longer than his optimum; he finished a comfortable 41 lengths behind the winner in 18th place!

Personally I’m happy with that. That should see another drop down the ratings from Mr Handicapper and it should also see him start at some juicy odds next time out. Hopefully connections will find a race that meets requirements on his next start (if you have the guide you know what they are), I really think he can land something at lofty odds when he gets his conditions…

Closing thoughts for the day…

Back to the main BDH list and if I see a potential new addition to our squad to replace Redvers and Dungannon then I will fire up a Blog post later in the week with all the details.

I’m also now getting properly stuck into the National Hunt game behind the scenes as I start work on the NTF National Hunt service 2013/14. I’ll hopefully still be blogging as regularly as usual on here but if not you know the reason why…

Ben (BDH)

GLB to land the Group 1 spoils for BDH?

GLB to take the G1 spoils today?

A potentially very busy day for us on Saturday here on BDH with 4 of our attack squad entered to run at various venues up and down the country. I also want to take a quick look at the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup as it features plenty of runners we have had dealings with this summer, and as a fan of consistency it makes sense to cover the race, using trends and pace as our main weapons into the contest.

As is often the case at this ‘changing’ time of the year the weather is likely to play a crucial part in proceedings with rain forecast at both Haydock & Ascot. Looking at the forecast it could be that the north gets a decent lashing in good old fashioned stair rods style! Haydock got a weather beatdown yesterday and whilst that is hopefully the worst of it out of the way it’s best to keep an eye on any potential (probable?) changes in the underfoot conditions.

Before I tuck into the Group 1 sprint action lets first cover our BDH runners…

BDH Runner: REDVERS 1.55 Ascot

Enough in his favour to warrant our interest in him here. He looks to have a good slot in stall 5 as there seems to be plenty of potential pace around about him and he should be able to sit out the back and make his usual late move.

He never really got into the race last time out over C&D but he has had a wee freshen up since then and at tasty enough odds I’m on, probably with a bit of E/W cover.

BDH Runner: WAKING WARRIOR 2.00 Thirsk

Like last time at Thirsk he is drawn low, which is a small concern, however, this time it is over a furlong further so comes with slightly less of a worry. His form at the track is solid (26239) although this is the first time he has tackled the Thirsk 6f, something which I think will suit him.

There is enough in his favour to make him of interest but it is going to have to be with each-way cover, that draw niggles me a bit and at the end of the day we are dealing with a horse who is still a maiden on the flat. I do think 6 furlong here will suit him, as will the softened ground.

I’ll have a punt E/W on him and I’ll be hoping for him to flash home late under Mulrennan

BDH Runner: TAWHID 2.40 Haydock

Good to Soft with the potential for more rain makes the Godolphin runner an obvious bet, based solely on my previous comments about him. Looks a winnable race and Mosse is certainly an interesting booking. I’m happy to take a punt and at the projected odds, I’m on.

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON 5.10 Ascot

First things first that is a crap price for a horse who hasn’t won for a while, racing in a field of this size. There is a bit of the Dance And Dance’s about this! I’m not seeing much bang for my buck here, that is a concern.

There is, however, plenty in his favour and he is one of the better handicapped runners in the field, I can’t crib that too much. Draw wise he also seems to have more than enough pace around him to hook onto a swoop late, again I can’t quibble with that.

I would like to back him but I think I’m going to need to see a wee bit of a drift first before getting involved. For now I’m hanging fire and will watch and see how the market unfolds…

Now onto the Group 1 sprint action of the day…

Betfred Sprint Cup – Haydock 3.50

…and what better way to start than with the pace map…

Haydock Sprint CupThe above tells us that there looks a fairly heavy leaning towards the middle to low stalls for the pace angle and those drawn around 10+ may not have much to aim at on their side.

LETHAL FORCE & HEERAAT should set the pace from the low numbers with HAMZA in stall 7 also likely to try and get in on the pace-setting duties.

On the trends angle this would not be a race I would be getting overly deep in with regards to the trends, however, I have applied what I would consider to be 6 of the strongest trends to give us a way into the contest.

The trends I have used for today are…

1. 13/14 recorded a top 2 finish in current season

2. 12/14 were aged 3-5

3. 12/14 ran in a Group race LTO

4. 11/14 recorded a top 3 finish LTO

5. 11/14 started in the top 3 in the market LTO

6. 10/14 had previously finished in the top 3 at Group 1 level

Applying those trends to today’s field gives us…

Horse

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total

Lethal Force

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

6/6

Gordon Lord Byron

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

6/6

Heeraat

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Hamza

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Garswood

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Slade Power

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

5/6

Reckless Abandon

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

4/6

Rex Imperator

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

4/6

Swiss Spirit

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

4/6

Kavanagh

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

3/6

Kingsgate Native

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

3/6

Intense Pink

N

Y

Y

N

N

N

2/6

Tiddliwinks

N

N

Y

N

N

N

1/6

Hoof It

N

N

N

N

N

Y

1/6

Soul

N

N

N

N

Y

N

1/6

Hawkeyethenoo

N

N

N

N

N

N

0/6

Looking at the top end we get a workable shortlist of LETHAL FORCE, GORDON LORD BYRON (GLB), HEERAAT, HAMZA, GARSWOOD & SLADE POWER.

If I have read the draw correct then SOUL POWER may have a bit to do from his draw and I’m happy to drop him from the shortlist.

Personally I wouldn’t be convinced HAMZA is a Group 1 beast so I’m also happy to drop him from calculations.

GARSWOOD dropping to 6f doesn’t convince me and draw is also leaning towards being a slight negative for him as well, personally I’m happy to pass him over for today.

That leaves 3 – LETHAL FORCE, GLB & HEERAAT.

I’m happy to take a punt on Gordon Lord Byron. Underfoot conditions will suit, the trip is ideal and he has Group 1 form to his name, he will carry my money.

I’ll possibly/probably also look to have savers on one or both of LETHAL FORCE & HEERAAT. LF is the dominate force in the sprinting division and it was no shame to be put in his place by Moonlight Cloud last time out. Softening ground is a wee concern but if it stays Good to Soft he should be OK. HEERAAT needs to improve but there does look improvement there. If there is a tasty priced winner he could be it.

Busy day ahead and best of luck if you are getting involved.

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Ben (BDH)

I don’t wanna dance + New BDH recruit…

I don’t feel like dancing…

Life is difficult at times. We all know that, we all accept that. Finding winners on the gee-gees is also pretty difficult. We all know that, we all accept that as well. So when a horse with latent ability starts making life difficult for himself and in turn making life frustrating for his supporters…it is safe to say we have every right to question our support of said beast.

Yes Dance And Dance I am talking about YOU!!

I’ve watched his run in Sunday’s Cambridgeshire a few times now and every time I’m left with the notion that there is so much left in his tank at the finish, sooooo much! I know I’m not the only one that has been seduced by his performances, he has started to become the master of seduction in recent runs. However, there has to be a time when we say enough is enough, I’m not falling for your ways any more, I’m fed up throwing a portion of my hard-earned cash on you for little to no return, only getting a faint buzz at the end of your races when you start teasing us all with what might have been and would could be in the future.

Sometimes you have to take a stance against these beasts and I’m taking one now. Dance And Dance you are OFF the BDH list. I don’t need time wasters and attention seekers in our squad. We have worked damn hard over the summer and I’m not in the mood to let you spoil the party!

I’m sure Dance And Dance will win again at some stage, if it happens to be next time out I’ll live with it (maybe!), but as far as being a member of our cherished BDH attack force I’m afraid to say (perhaps happy to say!) that your time is up, bye bye.

Not wanting to be overly light with our attack line I myself got involved in transfer deadline day yesterday and after shifting Dance And Dance out of the squad (someone else can deal with the wayward star!) I managed to secure the services of a youngster who I hope can land us something before the season is out…

BDH Review…

Race in focus: 2.05 Sandown (31-08-2013): BETFRED GOALS GALORE HANDICAP – 5f, Class 3 Handicap (14 ran)

How the race played out…

Sandown 31-08

With the 1st & 2nd coming from stalls 2 & 3 it is safe to say that it was an advantage to be drawn low; I’m pretty much coming round to the notion that this is where it pays to be in these tricky Sandown sprints. ASK THE GURU absolutely blitzed out of the gates in stall 1 and that gave a perfect target for BURNING THREAD & TIDAL’S BABY to aim at. The potential front runners from up high, SWENDAB & FRATELLINO, couldn’t get their preferred spot and this again helped it become a low drawn affair. The majority from up high had to switch behind early and this caused plenty of bunching on the far side and middle of the track. ASK THE GURU set a strong pace out front but couldn’t hold it in the final furlong and that gave a perfect slipstream for the eventual first 2 home to sweep past and strike.

There were a few hard-luck stories in-behind with the next 3 home SIR MAXIMILLIAN, DUNGANNON & MISSION APPROVED all meeting some sort of trouble at some stage of the contest.

The end result…

The winner BURNING THREAD was in the prime spot behind the pace setting Ask The Guru and he duly obliged. With retrospect he was well in on old form, had his ground and had previously won over course & distance. Depending on what the handicapper does he may still be able to squeeze out another win before reaching his ceiling again. 2nd home TIDAL’S BABY essentially just couldn’t match the winner and it may just be that he has enough weight for now. This was, however, his 2nd best RPR figure so that’s not conclusive by any means. 3rd home SIR MAXIMILLIAN ran a sound race given that he met trouble in-running and had an average draw. For all this was a solid run he is showing signs that he is held off his current mark. We know all about DUNGANNON in 4th and he was probably slightly more hampered than Sir Maximillian, having to switch numerous time to try and get a run. There was plenty to like about this run and he is still running at a consistent enough level, his time will come. 5th home MISSION APPROVED had the worst draw of all as he was parked widest of the field in the outside box. Moore tracked him across as soon as he could but he had to wait for gaps (on more than 1 occasion) and when they did appear the race was all but over.

BDH to follow…

MISSION APPROVED (5th) (Sir M Stoute)

Having his first run since being gelded and also dropping back to 5f for the first time in his 7 race career, this Dansili 3yo did extremely well to finish only 4 and a bit lengths behind the winner. Ryan Moore had to switch early and bide his time but the gaps just didn’t come in time for him.

He looks a powerful sprinting type as he traveled with plenty of gusto out the back and looks well suited to this drop down in trip. He impressed me with the way he quite easily consented to ghost through the gaps when they did appear and he closed in on the pack with minimal effort when asked by his pilot.

His rating of 80 looks extremely workable, especially when we consider that was gained over 7 & 8f trips. It should also be noted that he recorded his best Proform speed figure to date in this race, by quite some way in fact; another sign that this drop in trip brought about improvement from a potentially very lenient mark.

We don’t have a great deal to go on with regards to preferences as this was only his 7th career start (5th on turf) but his only turf victory to date (has won on the A/W) was gained off Soft ground at Warwick last October and it could be we see more improvement once the ground eases in the final couple of months of the season.

Conditions – As mentioned already we don’t have a great deal to work with although he looks for all the world like a sprinter to me and I am looking for him to be back over the 5f trip, possibly even 6f. Ground he seems adaptable with although ground with cut in it may just be more of a help.

MISSION APPROVED now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. I have a free guide available to all members of the FREE service. It concerns an angle that I follow that can generate huge priced winners! If you are not on the Free service then you can’t get the guide. You can join and pick up numerous free guides at the following page >>> Join the BDH/NTF community

Today I’ll leave you with the immortal words of Mr Eddy Grant…