It can be difficult, if not impossible, for a horse to win when it is drawn on the ‘wrong’ side when racing in a large field (14+ runners) straight track race.
But what do I mean by the ‘wrong’ side?
We’ve all seen these large field races on the flat where the field splits into 2 or even 3 or 4 groups as they blast over a straight 5f, 6f, 7f or 1m contest, think of a race like the Ayr Gold Cup for example. Often one of these groups will end up a considerable way ahead of the others and as such end up being the ones that contest the finish. A lot of punters think this is down to a ground bias (i.e. the ground is riding faster on one side over the other), and whilst in some circumstances this may well be true the real answer is that there is usually more pace on 1 side of the track than the other, that is that there are more front-runners or prominent racers drawn, for example, in the low stalls than in the high stalls. This means that, in this example, the horses drawn high have no-one to pull them into the race or give them a lead and they often have to do their own donkey work. Clearly this is not ideal and the horses can end up doing something they are not comfortable doing; in other words they are running outwith their comfort zone. In other cases the jockey on the high drawn horse may decide to track all the way over to the other side of the course so that he is able to sit close to the pace (the low darwn runners) and try his damndest to get a tow into the race. Again this is far from ideal and the horse is covering more ground and using vital energy to get across to the ‘pace side’ which in turn leaves the animal with reduced energy reserves to fight out the finish.
If you watch any of these large field straight track contests you will be able to see horses that have run well from an inadequate draw. They may only finish 5th or 6th but it is clear they have been disadvantaged by their draw and in essence they were beaten before the stalls even opened.
But how do we profit from this I hear you ask?
Well my job here at ‘Badly Drawn Horse’ is to identify those runners who ran well from poor draws, highlight if they are worth following in the future and more so exactly where the best circumstances are to follow them going forward.
Specifically I will be looking at the higher grade of races (Class 1 & 2) although if there are noteworthy runners from lower grades they will also be noted. I will also primarily be concentrating on the 5f & 6f sprint contests although I will also, from time to time, delve into some of the 7f & 1m races as well.
It can be a time consuming job and plenty of ‘Badly Drawn Horses’ do go unnoticed by the wider betting public. Luckily I spend a lot of my day watching races and digging into the traits and trends of racehorses. I enjoy what I do and that makes the task so much easier.
Hopefully you will enjoy following the ‘Badly Drawn Horse’ site and we can make some tasty winning bets throughout the racing calender by identifying ‘under the radar’ runners that others may have missed..
Best of racing luck – Ben (BDH)