BDH Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe – Full Analysis Guide

Sea The Stars bursts clear in the 2009 renewal. (Picture taken by Mrs NTF!)

The Arc De Triomphe. Arguably the greatest flat race in the world. It gets my vote anyway! With that in mind it would be rude of me not to put the race under full and unadulterated BDH scrutiny.

Before that, however, just a wee line on our BDH qualifier at Ascot, DINKUM DIAMOND…

BDH Saturday runner: DINKUM DIAMOND (Ascot)

He was a no bet anyway but I always like to keep a close eye on our squad even when the money isn’t down.

I thought he ran well in 5th without ever really threatening the places. The ground was upgraded to Good to Soft from Soft so conditions would not have been as bad for him as they were predicted to be. If we can get him on Good or better before the season is out (Good to Firm still the preferable option) then I will be happy.

As for the winner of the race (breath…5, 6, 7, 8…) I think the less said about him the better! He obviously felt the pressure of running with the BDH cash down in previous runs but once unleashed from our shackles he was free to get a photo-finish in his favour. Frustrating but racing has a habit of doing that sometimes…

2013 Arc De Triomphe Analysis…

Before I get onto the analysis of this years renewal I have a wee poll for you all…

.

Now onto the serious stuff…

From a personal perspective I was all set to pull the trigger on NOVELLIST. He ticked most of the boxes in my guide and had clearly been primed for this race since his King George romp at Ascot back in July. I was ready to put the money down and highlight him as the main selection in the BDH guide… Alas, it was not to be. Turns out he ate some dodgy snails, or some of that horrible Pâté they serve over there and has been declared unfit to race (fever/temperature is the official line).

For me then it was back to the drawing board to sift through the remainder of the field to look for the most likely winner and an alternative selection for a two-pronged BDH attack on France’s showpiece contest.

All the usual in-depth BDH analysis for the 2013 renewal of the Pric De L’Arc De Triomphe can be downloaded from the link below…

>>>Full BDH Arc De Triomphe Analysis Guide

Remember there is plenty of information in the guide so you don’t just have to follow my selections if you don’t want to.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and let’s hope for a cracking race!

FREE NTF Guides…

I am in the process of pulling together 2 new and FREE NTF guides for the forthcoming National Hunt season.

One is a Scottish themed micro-system (VERY easy to use) and the other is my own ‘to follow list’ for the forthcoming season. It will be slightly different to the ones that are already floating about out there and will include quite a few ‘dark horses’ that probably won’t appear on other lists.

These FREE guides will be EXCLUSIVE to members of my FREE NTF list so if you want them you need to join at the following link…

>>>Join the FREE NTF list and get yourself prepared for the 2013/14 NH season!

Happy Punting

Ben (BDH)

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16 thoughts on “BDH Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe – Full Analysis Guide

  1. Ben,

    Thank you for your Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe Analysis very much appreciated. I had a short list of three on my trends so was delighted to see they scored well on your trends and dosage also.
    My shortlist comprised of…
    Novellist NR
    Flintshire
    Intello

    Both are trained by Andre Fabre and Flintshire is my main bet. Most comments I have read on Flintshire express a worry about the ground, on breeding he should handle the going, although his defeats have been on a soft surface which is a worry, I am not convinced that he will not handle todays going and I do not think Andre Fabre would run him if he considered the going to be unsuitable.

    Best of luck with Ruler Of The World in what should be a magnificent race.

    Ben, I hope you don’t mind if I include the following links to the Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe for anyone who wants to see some other views…

    Prix De L Arc De Triomphe Statistics 2013
    http://www.bettingmarket.com/prixarc2012.html

    Arc de Triomphe Form Guide 2013
    http://www.arc-de-triomphe.net/form-guide.html

    Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2013 Preview / Tips
    http://www.geegeez.co.uk/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-2013-preview-tips/

    My selection yesterday – Umneyati was never in the race with a chance at any stage. From the Racing Post “Paul Hanagan reported that Umneyati was never travelling” Apologies to anyone on here who decided to have a bet on her, I just cannot explain why she ran so poorly.

    • Hi Eamon

      Thanks for the comment as always (no problem with links to other views, especially when it is someone like Matt at Geegeez).

      Ruler of the World ran an odd race, I have a theory for his run which hopefully I will blog about on here.

      Hopefully you had a bit each-way on Intello, 3rd placed returns will have softened the blow a bit.

      I couldn’t have had Flintshire myself, mainly due to the ground, he ran well in the circumstances though.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  2. Hi Ben

    Excellent analysis as always.

    Flintshire was stuck on the outside as he was drawn 9 in his ‘trial’ and is usually covered up and then was given a very easy time of things. Before the race he was vying for favoritism and is now 3 times the price. With him joint 3rd in your lists with 16/19 and having a far better draw than the trial (7) it should be much easier to get some cover.

    Must be Flintshire e/w for me.

    Many thanks for the full analysis.

    Karl

    • Hi Karl

      Glad you enjoyed the analysis. Couldn’t have had Flinty myself cos of the ground, could be an interesting sort next year if they keep him in training. Could be some races for him over here on the better ground possibly…

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  3. Novellist was the horse its sad. I think one that is overlooked by most is Al Kazeem to be honest. I had Novellist and Al Kazeem on top of the quality of races they contested and Al Kazeem has high knee action. Will at least love the ground and the combo ground and class will do for me vs the negative draw as the pace seems to be not sure, the draw could be a less deciding factor this year. Leading Light though has many positives aswell. One interesting one runs in the 1.20 Prix Marcel Bouseaux. I fancy there Sandiva the most but Hoku i wonder big time why hes 40/1 growing massive more and more physically and going on the ground, will play it small despite draw aswell.

    • Hi Ben

      Yeah I was very keen on Novellist, to be fair though I’m not sure he would have beaten the filly today. Al Kazeem ran a grand race from the widest of the draw and at the end of a hard season.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

    • Hi Oneman

      Glad you enjoyed the report and got a bit of a return on Intello. Was travelling very sweetly into the home-straight, thought we had a chance of collecting the full whack at one stage but the filly was just too good.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  4. Well done on finding the winner TREVE which topped the combined dosage and trends list with 17 from 19. A pity that, after doing the hard work, you opted for Ruler Of The World.
    Is there a lesson to be learned here?

    • Cheers Ian

      Yes, happy that TREVE was sitting joint top of the figures, less happy that I didn’t back her but my figures (specifically the shortlist) are there to be interpreted how the individual sees fit, including myself. I’m not one to back the top *rated* blind although admittedly this summer would have seen a decent return. I know some of my readers do just go with the top runners on the combined trends, some interpret the figures themselves and some simply follow my selections, as always it is up to the individual.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  5. Ben
    What was your reason to overlook Treve?Can understand you saying about not following the top rated blindly but why not say why you haven’t sided with her. I did back her by the way.
    Great report as per usual

    • Hi David

      It was tight between my shortlist to be fair, only 1 point in it so she wasn’t overlooked easily at all. I quite quickly ruled out Flintshire due to the ground and although I like Leading Light I personally don’t rate the St Leger as a good ‘trial’ for the Arc and wasn’t overly keen on him stepping back in trip (I think he can win 1m4f races, but the Arc was a big ask). I quickly had it between the 3 (Treve, ROTW & Intello) and in the end it probably just came down to her still having a wee bit to prove in my eyes (wasn’t 100% convinced the Wild Coco win was as good as it looked). It was fine margins though David and there is a piece of paper on my desk with Treve, ROTW & Intello circled and the others all crossed off!

      If Treve, for example, was 2 or 3 points clear on my figures then it would have been a no-brainer, she would have been the selection, but she wasn’t and I’m more than happy with how the figures panned out.

      Glad you backed her though 🙂

      Ben (BDH)

  6. Ben
    Thanks for your prompt reply.
    For me its a case of if you have done the work don’t throw it in the bin. Was worth a saver at such generous odds as it turned out. Won like a 6/4 shot!
    Bring on the jumpers! Great work as always!

  7. Hi Ben

    All signed up, logged in & ready to go for the new NH season.

    The Mrs thinks I’m “Up To Something” & she’s damn right. A winner on the board already from your HTF list!!

    Looking forward immensely to the new season. My Tent or Yours is my hurdler to follow & if he improves as I expect he will win the CH. My more speculative Gold Cup horse at this stage is Flight Lieutenant provided he is campaigned aggressively over a 3m+ trip (his running style suggests will suit but how does he sit on the all important dosage figures?)

    All the best to all for the new season

    Gary

    • Hi Gary

      Glad to have you on-board.

      Fine win today from Up To Something, always good when the first one goes in 🙂

      I’ll have some early ‘ante-post’ stuff in the Members area soon enough, specifically looking at the Dosage credentials of the big Cheltenham races.

      Cheers mate – Ben (BDH/NTF)

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