BDH Sunday Qualifier: Time for ‘Ball to Thunder home?

Pray for rain guys, pray for rain…

Hi guys, just a quick post from me as I’m a bit tied up with all things NTF at the moment.

BDH Sunday Qualifier: THUNDERBALL 4.45 Goodwood

6 furlong? Straight track? Race worth less than 20k to winner? Tick, tick and tick. But what about the 4th condition, the most important one; Soft ground. Well it is currently Good to Soft (Soft in places in the home straight) with rain forecast, some heavy rain as well by the looks of things. For me that is a 3/4 tick… so I’m on!

He drops down to Class 3 level today. His last 10 turf runs have seen him run at Class 2 level 9X & Class 3 level 1X. His run at Class 3 level was when we almost cashed in on him at Doncaster when he came a 1/2 length 3rd. Needless to say I’m happy with this step down in Grade.

There is pace coming from the stalls beside him – Stall 20 & 15 should go on and stall 18 may also be up there, we are in stall 19. There is pace at the other end as well so it isn’t a massive positive being where he is but it isn’t a negative and it is always handy to have pace round about Thunderball so that he doesn’t have to be making it himself.

We have never really been able to get properly stuck in to Thunderball since he has been in the squad (for 1 reason or another) but I’m willing to keep the faith with him today.

Now let us kneel down, fold our hands and pray for a bit of rain….

Ben (BDH)

p.s. The doors for the NTF Subscription service are now open….

>>>Join NTF for the 2013/14 National Hunt season

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BDH Arc De Triomphe Review + NTF Subscription News…

Treve. The new wonder-filly!

Wow! That was some performance from Treve wasn’t it? She blew the others away in scintillating fashion and is rightly receiving plaudits left, right and centre.

As always I like to give a run over my own figures once the dust has settled and despite not personally lumping on the winner I can’t complain with the performance of my shortlist…

BDH Arc Shortlist

(*TS=Trends Score)

TREVE – TS 17/19 – Winner at 48/10

LEADING LIGHT – TS 17/19 – 12th at 14-1

NOVELLIST – 17/19

INTELLO – TS 16/19 – 3rd at 10-1

RULER OF THE WORLD – TS 16/19 – 7th at 12-1

FLINTSHIRE – TS 16/19 – 8th at 20-1

That is a decent performance in my eyes and a fine example of how my Trends & Dosage combined figures work to create strong short-lists.

I personally only got a return on the Each-Way part of my Intello bet but the figures held up well and that is always a positive sign.

To be fair the figures have been spot on most of the summer, through from Address Unknown in the Chester Cup, to Talent in the Oaks and yesterday with Treve in the Arc. Those 3 were notable highlights for me in a different way. I personally didn’t back them but I know that a number of you did by using my own shortlist to form your own selections. I very much consider myself an analyst rather than a tipster so the fact you guys are able to use my in-depth work to come to your own conclusions makes me equally as happy as backing a winner myself.

Anyway, I digress, back to the Arc.

TREVE was simply outstanding. Hopefully she returns to defend her crown next year. It will take an almighty performance to win 2 Arc’s on the bounce but after that run it wouldn’t really be a surprise! She is very exciting if kept in training.

ORFEVRE ran a sound race to finish 2nd again and not much needs said about him to be fair; he ran like the horse we know he is. I would be surprised if he can go 1 better next year and it is more likely that he joins Youmzain as a triple Arc runner-up.

I thought INTELLO ran a fine race at his first try at the trip and I have no doubt he stays it. It may not be his best trip though as he is a strong traveler and may just be better coming off a strong pace over 1m2f. Word is he may well go off to stud now so, unfortunately, that may be it for him anyway.

AL KAZEEM ran a sound race in 6th and although not matching what he has done so far this season it was a decent effort under conditions that didn’t really suit.

RULER OF THE WORLD is the puzzler for me. He was in the thick of the action until turning for home when all of a sudden he found himself dropping almost to the back…then he picked up, flew home and finished 7th! Could it be he doesn’t like to be crowded in amongst horses? He doesn’t look the biggest of 3yo’s and things did get a bit rough turning for home with horses making challenges all around him. If we think back to when he landed the spoils for us in the Epsom Derby he made his move round the outside that day and had relative space to unleash his challenge. This was the largest field he has faced and after that I’m just inclined to think he maybe needs space to perform to his best and doesn’t thrive on being amongst runners. I guess his Prix Niel run would counteract that argument but it wasn’t quite as rough a race and there were less runners. Whatever the case he is a very interesting horse for next year (if kept in training) but I will be keeping an eye on that roughshod theory of mine!

I thought FLINTSHIRE did well enough in 8th on ground that really would not have suited and he is another that is of maximum interest next season, especially when racing on less testing ground. I have a feeling there is more to come from him as a 4yo.

All in all it was a thoroughly enjoyable race to watch and it was won by a filly who produced a performance right out of the top drawer. Can she land 2 Arc’s on the trot though? That is the million dollar question…

NTF National Hunt Service

I know plenty of you are itching to get on with the jumping stuff so here is the good news…

Doors to my 2013/14 National Hunt service will be opening this week!

Firstly to previous members (Wednesday). Then to members of my FREE NTF list (Friday). Then (if places remain) to everyone else (Monday 14th).

If you do want to join the full service then I seriously advise you to get your name on the FREE NTF list. Not only will this guarantee you a place on the service but you will also be able to join for the discounted rate.

On joining the FREE list you will also be able to download my free 90+ day October trainers guide (highlighted 3 winners yesterday!).

I will also be unleashing my ’20 to follow’ list tomorrow (Tuesday) which gives you a group of ‘under the radar’ horses I expect to win plenty of races this 2013/14 season.

*Spoiler Alert* There are NO Henderson, Nicholls or Mullins horses on this list!!

Make sure you don’t miss out on all this by joining the FREE list HERE >>> Join the FREE NTF list

Ben (BDH/NTF)

p.s. Want to know what is in the NTF 2013/14 service? Think of this summer here on BDH but think BIGGER, BETTER and MORE!

I’m really excited about this forthcoming National Hunt season…

BDH Prix De L´Arc De Triomphe – Full Analysis Guide

Sea The Stars bursts clear in the 2009 renewal. (Picture taken by Mrs NTF!)

The Arc De Triomphe. Arguably the greatest flat race in the world. It gets my vote anyway! With that in mind it would be rude of me not to put the race under full and unadulterated BDH scrutiny.

Before that, however, just a wee line on our BDH qualifier at Ascot, DINKUM DIAMOND…

BDH Saturday runner: DINKUM DIAMOND (Ascot)

He was a no bet anyway but I always like to keep a close eye on our squad even when the money isn’t down.

I thought he ran well in 5th without ever really threatening the places. The ground was upgraded to Good to Soft from Soft so conditions would not have been as bad for him as they were predicted to be. If we can get him on Good or better before the season is out (Good to Firm still the preferable option) then I will be happy.

As for the winner of the race (breath…5, 6, 7, 8…) I think the less said about him the better! He obviously felt the pressure of running with the BDH cash down in previous runs but once unleashed from our shackles he was free to get a photo-finish in his favour. Frustrating but racing has a habit of doing that sometimes…

2013 Arc De Triomphe Analysis…

Before I get onto the analysis of this years renewal I have a wee poll for you all…

.

Now onto the serious stuff…

From a personal perspective I was all set to pull the trigger on NOVELLIST. He ticked most of the boxes in my guide and had clearly been primed for this race since his King George romp at Ascot back in July. I was ready to put the money down and highlight him as the main selection in the BDH guide… Alas, it was not to be. Turns out he ate some dodgy snails, or some of that horrible Pâté they serve over there and has been declared unfit to race (fever/temperature is the official line).

For me then it was back to the drawing board to sift through the remainder of the field to look for the most likely winner and an alternative selection for a two-pronged BDH attack on France’s showpiece contest.

All the usual in-depth BDH analysis for the 2013 renewal of the Pric De L’Arc De Triomphe can be downloaded from the link below…

>>>Full BDH Arc De Triomphe Analysis Guide

Remember there is plenty of information in the guide so you don’t just have to follow my selections if you don’t want to.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and let’s hope for a cracking race!

FREE NTF Guides…

I am in the process of pulling together 2 new and FREE NTF guides for the forthcoming National Hunt season.

One is a Scottish themed micro-system (VERY easy to use) and the other is my own ‘to follow list’ for the forthcoming season. It will be slightly different to the ones that are already floating about out there and will include quite a few ‘dark horses’ that probably won’t appear on other lists.

These FREE guides will be EXCLUSIVE to members of my FREE NTF list so if you want them you need to join at the following link…

>>>Join the FREE NTF list and get yourself prepared for the 2013/14 NH season!

Happy Punting

Ben (BDH)

BDH Saturday Qualifier: Dinkum done by the downpour?

Diamond in the rough?!?

One BDH qualifier for us on Saturday but is the ground playing for or against us at Ascot?

Before I get on to that though we have a wee bit of house keeping for our midweek BDH runner…

Thursday BDH runner – MISSION APPROVED (Warwick)

Another placed effort for the squad, this time a 3rd placed 1 length defeat at BFSP 7.4. I think we were a smidgen unlucky here as James Doyle had to get across early from the wide draw and that may have just left him a tad short for his finishing effort. MA was in the lead entering the final furlong but he just couldn’t sustain the effort all the way to the line. I was half banking on a decent amount of rain falling by the time our race was off (my original post on Mission Approved stated that ground with cut in it would help) but it just didn’t come in enough buckets to properly change the ground; when you need the rain it doesn’t come and when you don’t want it (like when you are walking the dogs!) it comes down in buckets!

Anyway I’m not overly disappointed with this run, it was a tough (although not impossible) draw to overcome but this was a decent effort. He has now run twice for us and been beaten a head and a length and I’m still happy to keep him in the squad for now. Hopefully he will get ground with a bit of cut in it sooner rather than later…

Now onto Saturday’s qualifier…

BDH Runner: DINKUM DIAMOND 1.30 Ascot

Ascot is currently SOFT so that quite simply means NO BET for us. We want Good to Firm or at the least Good but Soft is a no go. If he somehow wins on the Soft stuff then the world will have dropped off it’s axis!

DD has run 3 times for us since making the squad. We managed to grab some nice E/W profits when he ran on the Good to Firm at Ascot (3rd at 22-1, was 33’s in the morning), he got a troubled passage in the Stewards Cup next time out and then the ground went against him/us at York and he was a no-bet.

There will be others much more suited to the underfoot conditions in this race and I’ll happily leave him alone in this Listed contest. We may indeed struggle to get him on his favoured conditions now before this season is out…

Arc De Triomphe – Sunday

I am neck-deep in National Hunt stuff at the minute but I have taken time out to put Sunday’s big race at Longchamp under the ‘Trosage’ microscope and I will have a full and free BDH analysis guide ready for you to download here on the Blog.

To make sure you don’t miss out on this free and alternative guide for one of the worlds most famous and prestigious races simply join the NTF/BDH FREE list, where you will also be able to download a clutch of free racing guides and mini-angles…

>>>Join the FREE NTF/BDH list today

Ben (BDH/NTF)

BDH Qualifier: Mission Approved or Mission Impossible?

 

Let’s hope it isn’t Mission ‘Impossible’ from stall 15…

A bit of mid-grade, mid-week action for us today with one of our BDH squad tackling the 6 furlong trip at Warwick…

BDH Runner: MISSION APPROVED 5.10 Warwick

We were very unlucky not to collect with him at Kempton last time out when he went down in a photo-finish by a head. That was a career best on the figures and his A/W mark was also put up 5lbs to 85 by the handicapper off the back of the run. He is able to run from his mark of 80 here back on the turf and although Turf-A/W form doesn’t always translate I would be confident our lad has at least a similar amount of improvement in him from this turf mark.

The positives for MA are that he is 1 from 1 at the track, both his wins have come going left-handed, he should handle any change in the going if the forecast rain arrives and the Stoute yard are in a decent bit of form at present – 10/29 | 34% S/R in the past 2 weeks. The Stoute runners also do well from their limited raids to the track – 5/16 | 31% S/R in the past 5 seasons.

The negative for MA is potentially the draw. Stall 15 of 17 wouldn’t be ideal although admittedly the figures don’t say it is completely impossible and there haven’t been too many large field races over this trip at Warwick in recent seasons to make a strong assessment.

Digging into my Proform database I had a look at 6f races at Warwick with fields of 12 or more and looked at those in stalls 13+ as a group. The following figures were returned…

2/56 | 4% S/R – Win & Place 8/56 | 14% S/R

It is a concern rather than a worry I would say…

So do we back him or not? 

Personally if I can get 5’s or above then I will take it. The draw is a concern but he is an improving horse and he may just have a bit too much for some of these. James Doyle rode him for the first time last time out and hopefully he will have learned plenty about him that day and he will be able to keep him a bit closer to the pace here.

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)