BDH Saturday Qualifiers: Choose Life. Choose Ripon. Chooseday…

We head to Ripon for our Saturday BDH runners.

Two qualifiers for us on Saturday at the Garden Racecourse, more commonly known as Ripon, with both our runners looking for glory in the same contest.

There is also a raft of former BDH runners hitting the track on Saturday, 3 of them being former winners for us and the other being one that had us tearing our hair out before we ceremoniously booted him out of the squad. If he should win the big one at Newmarket (Cambridgeshire) then his name shall never be spoken in these parts again!! I’m sure you all know who I am talking about…

Anyway let’s deal with our 2 runners from our current squad…

Saturday’s BDH runners…

BDH Runners:CHOOSEDAY & THUNDERBALL 3.45 Ripon

A 12 runner field here so there won’t be a great a pace or draw bias at play. It is a slight negative to be in the higher stalls in this sort of field size at the track but not a complete danger area and our 2 are drawn in 2 (Thunderball) & 8 (Chooseday) anyway so I see no problems there.

The pace will probably/possibly come from SPINATRIX in stall 5. THUNDERBALL did attempt to go from the front at Ayr last week but that was probably due to circumstance rather than by design and I would expect him to be behind the pace rather than on it here. CHOOSEDAY should also be sitting quite handy as well. It can be difficult to win from out the back over this trip at Ripon so having our 2 sitting behind the leader should be a positive for their chances.

Let’s now deal with them individually…

CHOOSEDAY

One of our recent additions to the squad and we get a quick opportunity to see him strut his stuff here. I only had 2 conditions for him and those were Good to Soft or better underfoot conditions and 6 furlongs. He meets both those conditions here and with Good ground forecast and no rain predicted (the opposite in fact) we are good to go.

To add a bit of meat to the bone I’ve also noted the following…

His Ripon form is solid (25244) with his 2nd best RPR figure of 91 (best is 93) being recorded at the track.

5lb claimer Shane Gray takes the mount for the first time and if we take his claim into account then CHOOSEDAY is actually running off a mark of 81. To put that in context that has him 4lbs lower than when he ran 3rd at Goodwood (3 runs ago) and 6lbs lower than when he ran a close 4th at Ripon (2 runs ago) – those 2 runs were his 1st & 2nd best on RPR figures as well as his 1st & 2nd best runs on the Proform speed figures.

I’m happy to have him on our side today and at the odds available (around 9-1 at time of writing) I’ll take him in an each-way capacity.

THUNDERBALL

I’m going to have to pass on him today. I’ve been looking for Soft ground since he made our list and yet again the rain gods have failed to deliver for us. His last win was on Soft (9 runs ago) and on that day he recorded an RPR of 99. Since then he has run 6 times on Good or better with his best 2 RPR figures being 89 & 83; essentially he has only managed to get within 10lbs of his last winning mark once on his ‘unfavourable’ ground. His other 2 runs were on Good to Soft where he recorded RPR’s of 96 & 50 (when he was drawn out of it in stall 1 at Ayr); more proof that he wants some sort of cut to run near or to his best these days.

Others aspects do look in his favour today but that ground worries me and is enough to put me off.

Best of luck if you are getting involved

Ben (BDH)

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13 thoughts on “BDH Saturday Qualifiers: Choose Life. Choose Ripon. Chooseday…

  1. CHOOSEDAY: Defenite bet for me and i bet him last Saturday in the Silver Cup where he ran a very good race in the circumstances.

    On the Cambridgeshire Newmarket 3:50 i had a look at this the other day from a trends angle and my shortlist is…

    THA´IR
    GABRIAL THE GREAT
    QUEENSBERRY RULES
    CODE OF HONOR

    The first two i am not happy with the draw although i think it possible to win from any stall middle to hide draw would have to be favoured.
    I have backed QR and COF EW but without question i consider Code Of Honour as my strongest bet.

    Looking forward to your analyst of this Ben.

  2. Not sure that the draw makes a big difference in the Cambridgeshire unless all the pace is on one side. Stalls 10, 11, 21 & 26 look the likeliest to lead.

    3yos don’t have a great record so my top pick is GRAPHIC to beat Strictly Silver, Gabrial The Great and Tha’ir.

    • Re: Graphic
      Runners who had 1 previous run over 9F are 140-0 and Graphic had one previous run over 9F on 05/05/2012
      He also ran on the AW LTO and runners who raced on AW or NH LTO are 17-0

      Re: Strictly Silver
      103 runners had 9 or more previous runs in the season and all were beaten
      He also had one previous run over 9F 140-0 09/03/2013

      On the trends I could not have either.

      • Choose day does not look like a valid betting option for me today. That field is very competitive and the way i read form anyone of 6 can win that race so at 13/2 there is little or no value. Small stakes on seek again for today who is 2 for 2 at newmarket and 2 for 2 on good ground and being from the gosden yard could well be open to further improvement. No trends involved just simple reading of the cards. Good luck all

  3. 3 year olds have won 3 of the last 10 renewals. 4 year olds have also won 3 races, but from twice as many entrants. 5 and 6 year olds have won 2 each.

    3 year olds (4.6%) are twice as likely to win as 4 year olds, one and a half times more likely than 5 year olds. Only 6 year olds, with a 5.6% strike rate from 36 runners score better than 3 year olds.

    You should check the facts before posting (or betting) Brian. Graphic fails so many trends I wouldn’t back him if you paid me,

    The winner, if the trends hold up, will be one of these:

    Ascription, Queensberry Rules, Code Of Honor, Danchai, Jack’s Revenge.

  4. Hi all

    Interesting and opinionated thoughts as always.

    I’ve taken a look at the Cambridgeshire myself, tricky as always & plenty you can make an argument for.

    On the pace angle it may just be low to middle that hold sway although there doesn’t look a huge deal in it. 6-10-11-21-26 are the potential pace angles to my eyes.

    To give myself a workable shortlist I’ve applied the following trends to the field…

    15/15 had an OR of 102 or less
    15/15 were aged 3yo – 6yo
    14/15 contested a Handicap on their last run
    14/15 carried 9-3 or less
    13/15 recorded a top 5 finish LTO
    13/15 had 0 or 1 run in the last month
    12/15 ran in a field of 15 runners or more LTO
    IRE bred runners have been under-performing a touch

    That leaves me with…

    The Rectifier 8/8

    Code Of Honour 7/8
    Graphic 7/8
    Seek Again 7/8
    Forgive 7/8
    Jacks revenge 7/8
    Tres Coronas 7/8

    I’ll take a punt with Rectifier and also have a bit on Code Of Honour.

    Good luck if your are getting involved in the cavalry charge!!

    Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  5. Im on Seek Again here, to my understanding a middle draw not too high weight and most important a hold up horse are the key stats. Seek Again has as a bonus Newmarket Ground frorm + field size. Physical looks absolutely made for Newmarket and the 9f. 20/1 okay price small stakes.
    Backed yesterday Zain Eagle 3/1 in the 3rd race Chester, will be my main bet today. Backed off the boards now, but Chester track always a danger with the bends. Physical i rate this horse Group material no wonder its backed like hell. But its a test today im eager to see this one is really classy i feel.

    • Zain Eagle couldnt show if good material, was pulling like hell despite backed whole day and before the off, some lost a lot of money. Dont write this one off.

  6. Pingback: BDH Weekend Review: Refusing at Ripon… | Badly Drawn Horse

  7. Very frustrating indeed Ben. I backed Code Of Honor ante-post at 25/1 win only. The thickness of a bridle strap cost me £250. 😦

    Nice to see some jumps material coming through. It’s much more my sort of thing than the flat, although well done on bagging several BDH winners. I noticed Dungannon won again on Saturday, but he’s another I’ve only backed when he didn’t win, having forgotten to do so when he was in the winning BDH squad! :/

    • Hi Craig

      Yeah a royal pain in the ass with Code Of Honour. Probably got motoring a bit too late in fairness but was flying at the line (probably makes it more agonizing!).

      Yeah Dungannon rolled in again on Saturday, I pulled him out of the squad after his last win but had a few emails from people saying they stuck with him for this win as well. Was handicapped to have a decent chance but that win will push him above his ceiling.

      National Hunt stuff now starting to take my main focus. Today sees a 55%-45% switch to jumping and it will only go stronger towards the jumping as the weeks (if not days) roll through October 🙂

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  8. Hi Ben,

    I had Code of Honour backed EW as my main bet and really disappointed to lose out on the win part of the bet. But over time I find these photo finishes balance themselves out and we are certainly due a few to go in our favour now.

    The one positive I did have on Saturday was Dungannon as I was more than happy with the price available especially after missing him the last day.

    As for Chooseday, the writing was on the wall before the off as you say. After having another look at his profile and there is not much evidence to go on in trying to determine his ideal conditions but personally I won’t have a bet on him again unless he is running over 6F and a flat track.

    • Hi Eamon

      Yeah it certainly was disappointing to miss out on the win portion with Code of Honour.

      Dungannon did the job well, glad you were on this time round 🙂

      No strong angles for Chooseday emerging but a couple that are starting to poke their head up, a little break then back for a 6 furlong event somewhere will be ideal.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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