Ladbrokes St Leger: Dosage & Trends Analysis

The final domestic Classic rumbles into action today at Town Moor on day 4 of the 2013 St Leger Festival with the lung bursting St Leger taking centre stage at 3.50.

I have a full Dosage & Trends guide available for you later on in the Blog for the big one but first I’ll give you my thoughts on yesterday’s BDH runner as well looking at today’s BDH qualifier and some Portland Handicap analysis.

Let’s start with yesterdays BDH runners…

YEEOOW – 4.25 Doncaster

Finished 3rd, each-way money secured, handled the ground, I’m happy. The field split into 2 groups which didn’t really help our lad but he gave plenty of indications that he is still improving and he very much stays on the list after this run.

I’m hopeful he can land something for us before the season is out.

Now onto today’s action…

BDH Runner: STEPS 2.40 Doncaster – Portland Handicap

Ahh Steps…Steps…Steps. He probably should have won last time out and he again finds himself climbing the weights without winning. He is now 11lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark and 17lbs higher than his last winning mark. It’s starting to concern me for sure.

I would also slightly prefer him over a bare 5f rather this 5 & 1/2f.

On the plus side he has ground with cut in it which is a huge positive and he has winning form at Doncaster.

His hold up style of running should also be a bonus in a race that looks to hold plenty of pace up front.

He has fired in 2 career best’s on the figures on his last 2 starts so there is reason to believe he can overcome this mark.

Despite a couple of small reservations I’m happy to pitch in with him here today. The Varian yard are in bouncing form and with enough juice in the price to get on each-way I’m happy to have our BDH warrior STEPS on our side.

As is usual the case in race of this stature I’m also looking for another runner to carry my money. Let’s start by looking at the pace chart to see how the race is likely to shape up…

Portland 2013

To be honest the pace map doesn’t give us a great deal of help. The signs are that there is pace from all over the track so from this angle I can see no clear advantage to top, middle or bottom.

I would expect the field to split into at least 2 groups, with each group having solid front-runners at the head of affairs.

My next stop would usually be a quick delve into the trends but personally I don’t think this is a great race for that approach. I could fire up some trends without any problem but from past experience it wouldn’t be the strongest from the trends angle.

Instead I’ve had a look at the field from a handicapping perspective and picked out a clutch of runners that I have marked up as ‘well-in’ on old form, whether that is old handicap form or indeed old graded form.

That gave me the following shortlist…

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER

OUR JONATHAN

ANGELS WILL FALL

ANGELS WILL FALL has never struck me as one to enjoy a large field and she has been really struggling of late so she gets punted from that list fairly readily.

The other 2 are much more interesting to me…

OUR JONATHAN finds himself slipping to a very handy mark indeed. 2 years ago he won the Ayr Gold Cup quite comfortably off a mark of 105, today he runs off  97. We know he handles ground with cut in it, we know he handles large fields and we know he is classy on his day. He has also run some decent races at Donny without actually winning so his 0 from 6 track figures are a lot better than they first seem. At the odds available he is worthy of consideration.

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER is one that is very much of interest to me. I’ll let you into a little secret; he almost made the BDH squad after his last start. That was last weekend at Ascot behind our boy Redvers in what was only his 3rd ever handicap start. That race was over 7f and he made a serious move to hit the front around 2f out, however, as soon as he got there he smashed into his stamina wall and back-peddled rapidly.

It’s easy to forget he was once rated as high as 116 after a close 2nd in the 2011 Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot. This year he has been tried over 8f (x3) & 7f (x4) and only once over 6f. Admittedly he did run a sound race in 5th over 7f at Glorious Goodwood in the Lennox Stakes but apart from that every sinew of him looks like it has been crying out for a return to 6f, if not 5f.

I’m not put off by the fact he only ran 7 days ago as his form figures when returning within a week read -12- and his form figures when returning within 2 weeks read -121115050- he clearly has no problem with a quick return.

We know he has the speed for this trip, we know he handles the ground and with jockey Natasha Easton taking off 5lbs we can be pretty confident the mark of 91 (taking the claim into account) makes him an interesting proposition.

I’ll take STEPS (BDH Qualifier) and MONSIEUR CHEVALIER (BDH almost squad member) as my 2 bets in this valuable sprint and I’ll ponder over whether to include OUR JONATHAN in calculations as well.

Ladbrokes St Leger full Dosage & Trends Analysis

We move from the sprinting division to the staying division with one fell swoop and put the St Leger under the full ‘Trosage’ microscope.

It doesn’t look the strongest St Leger in recent memory but someone has to win it and with it generally proving to be a strong race for both Dosage and Trends it was a no-brainer to give it a full and thorough seeing to.

The full analysis guide can be downloaded from the following link…

>>>Full BDH St Leger Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Best of luck if you are getting involved today.

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Ben (BDH)

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17 thoughts on “Ladbrokes St Leger: Dosage & Trends Analysis

  1. Morning Ben, Spent a few hours yesterday on this race and these are my selections based on the trends…

    Portland Handicap Class 2, 6 ½F, Doncaster
    Looking at the previous 15 year trends, excluding 2006 when the race was run at York.

    Stalls 1, 2, 3 and 4 are no wins from a total of 58 runners and there have been just 5 placed runners.

    7 winners ran over 5F and 8 winners ran over 6F last time out. Runners that ran over 5 ½ F last time out are 18-0 with 2 placing and runners that ran at further than 6F last time out are 9-0 with 2 placing.

    2 won last time out the rest finished within 15L of the winner.

    32 ran in a class 1 last time out and their record is 32-0 with 4 placing. The runners that ran in the UK last time 9 winners came from class 3 and 4 winners from class3. The remaining two ran in a handicap in Ireland last time out.

    14 of the 15 winners had their last run 6 to 45 days ago with the exception not racing for 300+ days Astonished in 1999.

    Female runners are 23-0 with 5 placing.

    14 of the 15 had won 1 to 5 handicaps, the runners that failed to win a handicap previously are 51-1 with 7 placing. Runners who have won 6 or more handicaps previously are 48-0 with 2 placing.

    At this stage it leaves a not so short list of…
    Steps
    Elusivity
    El Viento
    Secret Witness
    Racy (failed to win a handicap but I will leave him in for now).
    Addictive Dream
    Our Jonathan
    Monsieur Chevalier

    21 runners ran in a visor no wins and 2 placed.
    40 runners ran in blinkers no wins and 5 placed.
    11 runners were ridden by a 7Lb claimer no wins and no places.

    So now my short list with comments from Spotlight…

    Elusivity 12/1 generally, with SkyBet, Boyles and Powers offering 12/1 and paying on the first 5.
    Good effort under top weight on second start for this yard when fourth at York in May and claims if he could reproduce that effort on ground that will suit, but subsequent efforts more in keeping with what he was showing in second half of last season which would not be good enough here.

    Racy 16/1 generally. 16/1 with Powers paying first 5
    Run well in some competitive handicaps for new yard since bought out of Brighton claimer in May and Ryan Moore (one of only two jockey to have won on him) booked today; however, last Saturday´s run at Haydock was some way below his best and likely wait for his first handicap win set to continue.

    Our Jonathan 16/1 with Boyles paying first 5
    Third in 6f Listed event on soft ground on return here in March was a decent effort but not had going in his favour since; knows what it takes to win one of these big handicaps (2011 Ayr Gold Cup winner) and off lowest mark in over two years on second run for this yard needs considering.

    I have bet the three.

  2. Interesting that I have Leading Light and Excess knowledge at the top and bottom of my Leger trends list, the opposite to you.

    Galileo Rock, Foundry and Talent come out well on mine too – with preference for the first but only doubts about the connections deliberating on whether to run or not.

    Can’t help thinking Talent is worth a good place bet.

    • Hi accountantselecta

      It’s a race I could make plenty of positive & negatives noises for the entire field so there are a handful of results that won’t surprise.

      Best of luck with your punts.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  3. An interesting profile runner today for anyone interested.
    Bath 5:05
    Fanrouge when running in class 4 or lower at Bath 5 runs 4 wins
    4 NR now and the price is being cut but Skybet are still best price 9/2

    • Hi Eamon

      Fanrouge is an old ‘friend’ of mine. She was a ‘course connoisseur’ of mine on one of my free guides, highlighting her record at Bath. Would hope for a decent run from her today.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  4. My shortlist for the 5f Hcp is Barnet Fair, Prodigality, Bogart, Ajaad and Burwaaz. These are in my view Classwise on top. Seeing so much pace in the race, i feel Barnet Fair has a good chance, Is for me the one with the best turn of foot, was having always problems, but it will be again today coming from behind. You need a good race to find the gaps but on softer ground with this pace i think has ideal. Steps has the pace bonus, but i think is not up to this class here, also a smaller horse and will need to be good in this field to win.

      • Unlucky for you guys, Steps should be the winner. Great work, what is your PL for Badlydrawnhorses, i feel its very good or?

      • Hi Ben

        Yes v unlucky with Steps, still can’t believe it wasn’t at least a dead-heat!!

        I haven’t actually been keeping a detailed P&L for BDH, for me it’s just part of my wider operation and I know that so many readers use the info in various different ways anyway (staking wise).

        I know from the responses I get that people are well up using the info and that’s enough confirmation for me. At the end of the day I’m not a tipster, I provide in depth analysis,

        Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  5. How unlucky were we yesterday! Beaten a nostril by the dismissed short listed nag. Bugger. And with steps out on his own in the middle and looking a bit lonely, the other one had the rail to help. Irony is they were drawn next to each other but ended up separated by half the width of the track to our lads cost. Double bugger!

    • Hi Gary

      Yeah it was a bloody sore one! How on earth that wasn’t a dead-heat I really don’t know!

      Tough one to take but thats racing, you learn to take it on the chin (eventually!!)

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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