BDH Qualifier: “They call him the winner who takes all”…

BDH Qualifier: “They call him the winner who takes all”…

…well hopefully that’s what we will be calling him at the end of the day anyway!!

Yes, we have a BDH qualifier hitting the track at Doncaster on day 2 of the St Leger meeting and for those of you that are not James Bond/Tom Jones fans and haven’t guessed who it is from the lyrical reference in the title it’s…

BDH Runner: THUNDERBALL 4.25 Doncaster (12-09-13)

My stipulations for this guy were 6 furlongs and Soft going with small preferences for a straight track and a race worth less than 20k to the winner. Here he meets 3 of those conditions (6f, straight track & race worth less than 20k) and won’t be far off meeting the ground requirements. The ground is described as Good to Soft for day 2 of the 2013 St Leger meeting and there is rain forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday evening, all in all it should lead to damp-ish conditions and ground with some sort of cut in it, perfect for our BDH warrior. Obviously the more rain the better for our lad.

On the pace/draw side of thing we are berthed in a handy slot in stall 16. The pace looks middle to high and that puts us bang there.

Here is the pace map for the 6f contest…

dONCASTER 12-09

There looks very little in the way of pace-setters down low so that should play to the hooves of those drawn middle to high, of which THUNDERBALL is one of them.

What else do we have in our favour? Well he has been dropped 2lbs since his last run at Chester. He ran poorly there but that was under conditions that were not anywhere near optimum; drop in the weights is very welcome, thank you very much Mr Handicapper.

Tom Queally gets the ride here and he gets on well with the 7yo; form figures of 01681 when teaming up and the horse’s best RPR figure of 99 was recorded with Queally on board.

THUNDERBALL is also a dual Course & Distance winner so we can be happy with the fact that he acts on the track.

I will be backing this BDH warrior here. He looks to have plenty in his favour and as already mentioned any further softening of the ground will only aid his cause.  With 22 runners set to lash down the Donny straight I will probably look to have a bit of E/W cover on him.

The one downside is that he looks like he is already being backed (I’m writing this at 6.30 on Wednesday evening!). First prices were favourable, there was 16-1 being banded about by a few of the bookmakers. However, he is being cut across the board and at time of writing 12-1 looks the best price available. I actually witnessed Bet365 cut him from 16-1 to 10-1 in one vicious swipe!! Paddy Power are even going as low as 9-1! Tight gits!

I’ll leave you today with a bit of classic Bond/Tom Jones action…

Best of luck if you are getting involved

Ben (BDH)

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18 thoughts on “BDH Qualifier: “They call him the winner who takes all”…

  1. Hi Ben, I have also backed Thunderball but was expecting to get a better price, given luck in running i expect him to run a big race here. The only other bet i will have tomorrow is My Kingdom 4:35 Epsom who also appears to have his ideal conditions, currently available at 14/1 with Bet365, but he is also shortening up and is as low as 9/1 with Powers and Hills.

    • Hi Eamon,
      I ‘m likewise as you with those two as per Ben/BDH /Sleepers- One to follow etc ..My Kingdom looks well in here and a definite punt as well i think.

    • Hi Eamon

      Yes I was also expecting a better price. Decent prices were disappearing rapidly about Thunderball, half the reason I tried to get the post out quickly.

      I’ll be on My Kingdom as he is one of the handicap sleepers and has his conditions.

      Fingers crossed mate

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  2. It seems to be a problem with these horses shortening, I guess too many onto one and all that. Nice to see Swiftly Done win the other day even though it was 15 runners as opposed to the 13 or under to be its optimum. Ben do you think that the amount of runners is really a viable rule for horses preferences?

    • Hi Keith

      Yes I’m noticing the shortening of prices on my BDH runners recently. I wouldn’t have thought I had enough force behind me to move the markets so I’m treating it as coincidence at the minute…

      I do think that field size is an important factor in some horses form (not all). Some like having plenty space around them (small fields) whilst other enjoy running past and through horses (large fields). I have thought this for a number of years and nothing has really changed my mind in the meantime.

      With regards to Swiftly Done I do try and stick to the ‘rules’ or conditions I have highlighted as much as possible but I do employ a bit of flexibility for each horse. In this case I read it as everything looked good for him and the field size stipulation was only 2 out, if for example it was a 20 runner race I would say no bet but as it was a 15 runner race I was willing to take a shot.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

    • Hi accountantselecta

      Yeah money seemed to be coming for him as soon as the market formed. Hopefully the money is correct in this instance…

      Best of luck – Ben (BDH)

  3. Hi Ben,the two stable mates of Thunderball ran very poorly in the 5.15 at Donnie today, both fancied,one the fav,have to say it tempers my enthusiasm a little bit.

    Dan

  4. Hi Dan, re: the two stable mates of Thunderball started at 9/2F and 10/1 but I could not see any evidence when I looked at this race on Tuesday night to support either and Even Stevens was one of the first I discarded although he won the corresponding race last year his OR was 7LB higher and Three Grand was 6LB higher than his last win on OR. In the end i did not have a bet on this race. Although I would have to agree with you that the recent form of S Dixon could be better as he has not had a winner since the 30th August and his last 9 runners have been beaten but 7 of those runners had an SP of 10/1 or more.

    Noel, yes both Thunderball and My Kingdom are well in on OR and both appear to have their conditions today and given a trouble free run I would expect both to be involved at the finish. If everything goes to plan it could be a very good day!

    • Yes Eamon – you feel being ahead of the market and conditions right you will get a decent run for your money ..mind you in 22 runner Hcps you do need a bit of luck in running ..My Kingdom looks to have the easier task on paper ..

  5. OK Ben,1st i have to say i mugged my self Saturday,i got up late only to turn box on and watch redvers cross the line i wanted to cry,then i know dunganon had ran a blinder but it was no value with all those runners in race so i blew out there,if though i had got up at a decent time,i would of done e/w double and redvers in a single,today im up early and will be looking at thunderball,so thanks mate

  6. Thunderball has stormed the market at 11/2, good luck to those who got on at bigger and can go green. I like the chances of Pearl Ice.

    • Hi Chris

      Yeah he has been smashed up in the market.

      Personally I’m not interested in greening up, BDH horses are just straight up bets for me.

      Pearl Ice on a decent enough mark so good luck if you are getting involved with him.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

    • Gavin

      Sprouted bloody wings mate! I had him win & place but I was counting my win share as well about 100yds out! Hit 1.03 in-running as well! Gaaaaghhh!

      Ben (BDH)

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