GLB to land the Group 1 spoils for BDH?

GLB to take the G1 spoils today?

A potentially very busy day for us on Saturday here on BDH with 4 of our attack squad entered to run at various venues up and down the country. I also want to take a quick look at the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup as it features plenty of runners we have had dealings with this summer, and as a fan of consistency it makes sense to cover the race, using trends and pace as our main weapons into the contest.

As is often the case at this ‘changing’ time of the year the weather is likely to play a crucial part in proceedings with rain forecast at both Haydock & Ascot. Looking at the forecast it could be that the north gets a decent lashing in good old fashioned stair rods style! Haydock got a weather beatdown yesterday and whilst that is hopefully the worst of it out of the way it’s best to keep an eye on any potential (probable?) changes in the underfoot conditions.

Before I tuck into the Group 1 sprint action lets first cover our BDH runners…

BDH Runner: REDVERS 1.55 Ascot

Enough in his favour to warrant our interest in him here. He looks to have a good slot in stall 5 as there seems to be plenty of potential pace around about him and he should be able to sit out the back and make his usual late move.

He never really got into the race last time out over C&D but he has had a wee freshen up since then and at tasty enough odds I’m on, probably with a bit of E/W cover.

BDH Runner: WAKING WARRIOR 2.00 Thirsk

Like last time at Thirsk he is drawn low, which is a small concern, however, this time it is over a furlong further so comes with slightly less of a worry. His form at the track is solid (26239) although this is the first time he has tackled the Thirsk 6f, something which I think will suit him.

There is enough in his favour to make him of interest but it is going to have to be with each-way cover, that draw niggles me a bit and at the end of the day we are dealing with a horse who is still a maiden on the flat. I do think 6 furlong here will suit him, as will the softened ground.

I’ll have a punt E/W on him and I’ll be hoping for him to flash home late under Mulrennan

BDH Runner: TAWHID 2.40 Haydock

Good to Soft with the potential for more rain makes the Godolphin runner an obvious bet, based solely on my previous comments about him. Looks a winnable race and Mosse is certainly an interesting booking. I’m happy to take a punt and at the projected odds, I’m on.

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON 5.10 Ascot

First things first that is a crap price for a horse who hasn’t won for a while, racing in a field of this size. There is a bit of the Dance And Dance’s about this! I’m not seeing much bang for my buck here, that is a concern.

There is, however, plenty in his favour and he is one of the better handicapped runners in the field, I can’t crib that too much. Draw wise he also seems to have more than enough pace around him to hook onto a swoop late, again I can’t quibble with that.

I would like to back him but I think I’m going to need to see a wee bit of a drift first before getting involved. For now I’m hanging fire and will watch and see how the market unfolds…

Now onto the Group 1 sprint action of the day…

Betfred Sprint Cup – Haydock 3.50

…and what better way to start than with the pace map…

Haydock Sprint CupThe above tells us that there looks a fairly heavy leaning towards the middle to low stalls for the pace angle and those drawn around 10+ may not have much to aim at on their side.

LETHAL FORCE & HEERAAT should set the pace from the low numbers with HAMZA in stall 7 also likely to try and get in on the pace-setting duties.

On the trends angle this would not be a race I would be getting overly deep in with regards to the trends, however, I have applied what I would consider to be 6 of the strongest trends to give us a way into the contest.

The trends I have used for today are…

1. 13/14 recorded a top 2 finish in current season

2. 12/14 were aged 3-5

3. 12/14 ran in a Group race LTO

4. 11/14 recorded a top 3 finish LTO

5. 11/14 started in the top 3 in the market LTO

6. 10/14 had previously finished in the top 3 at Group 1 level

Applying those trends to today’s field gives us…

Horse

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total

Lethal Force

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

6/6

Gordon Lord Byron

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

6/6

Heeraat

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Hamza

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Garswood

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

5/6

Slade Power

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

5/6

Reckless Abandon

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

4/6

Rex Imperator

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

4/6

Swiss Spirit

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

4/6

Kavanagh

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

3/6

Kingsgate Native

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

3/6

Intense Pink

N

Y

Y

N

N

N

2/6

Tiddliwinks

N

N

Y

N

N

N

1/6

Hoof It

N

N

N

N

N

Y

1/6

Soul

N

N

N

N

Y

N

1/6

Hawkeyethenoo

N

N

N

N

N

N

0/6

Looking at the top end we get a workable shortlist of LETHAL FORCE, GORDON LORD BYRON (GLB), HEERAAT, HAMZA, GARSWOOD & SLADE POWER.

If I have read the draw correct then SOUL POWER may have a bit to do from his draw and I’m happy to drop him from the shortlist.

Personally I wouldn’t be convinced HAMZA is a Group 1 beast so I’m also happy to drop him from calculations.

GARSWOOD dropping to 6f doesn’t convince me and draw is also leaning towards being a slight negative for him as well, personally I’m happy to pass him over for today.

That leaves 3 – LETHAL FORCE, GLB & HEERAAT.

I’m happy to take a punt on Gordon Lord Byron. Underfoot conditions will suit, the trip is ideal and he has Group 1 form to his name, he will carry my money.

I’ll possibly/probably also look to have savers on one or both of LETHAL FORCE & HEERAAT. LF is the dominate force in the sprinting division and it was no shame to be put in his place by Moonlight Cloud last time out. Softening ground is a wee concern but if it stays Good to Soft he should be OK. HEERAAT needs to improve but there does look improvement there. If there is a tasty priced winner he could be it.

Busy day ahead and best of luck if you are getting involved.

Sky Bet Super 6

p.s. Don’t forget to get your Super 6 predictions in. Even though it is an international break weekend they still run the competition, you just have to predict (guess?!) the results of 6 lower league games. Still FREE and still £250,000 up for grabs!!

Always worth a pop I’d say!

>>>Win £250,000 with the SkyBet Super 6

Ben (BDH)

Advertisements

22 thoughts on “GLB to land the Group 1 spoils for BDH?

  1. Morning Ben, all four runners have a chance today but the draw totally puts me off Waking Warrior,

    The price is the problem with Dungannon I just could not back him at those odds in such a competitive race.

    Redvers probably has as good a chance as any but this race appears very competitive so I will not get involved.

    Tawhid now this is my idea of a solid bet at 4/1, I can find no negatives regarding him and he also meets all the trends for this race.

    So my main bet today is Tawhid at 4/1 and I will also have a little on…

    2:05 Haydock Kyleakin Lass 16/1 Paddy Power
    3:30 Ascot Cafe Society 9/2 generally.

    • Tawhid took my interest, and when I found Montridge didn’t have a great proflle I thought we were on. Then I looked at Tawhid’s profile:

      1998+ Aug-Oct, Group 3 races around 1mile

      LTO in a G2: 6/34 18%
      3yo’s: 0/10, 3 plc
      Those running < 22 days: 0/12

      That was enough to put me off, although I will be disappointed if he comes in at 4/1!

      • Hi Accountantselecta

        Thanks for the comment. I’ve been waiting for decent cut in ground before backing Tawhid so not overly worried by your stats, don’t think the 3yo stat is enough of a sample size to put me off, or the <22 stat.

        Appreciate the thoughts as always though.

        Cheers – ben (BDH)

      • Apologies, I think I’ve made 3 posts and all have had a negative spin! Personally I’m waiting for a good match – although no doubt when that happens the odds will be skinny.

        Good call with GLB, Lethal Force was the only one I wanted in that race, but he wasn’t strong particularly with the soft ground.

        Gutted I didn’t follow in with Redvers – cant recall why not, but I had a dry day overall. Just seen Dungannon go in at 3/1 aswell, along way from the forecast 9/1 although I doubt anyone got on at that price!

      • Hi Accountantselecta

        Yeah it can be tricky waiting for a good/perfect match, as you say it would give a high potential for skinny odds.

        Ground just wasn’t playing in Lethal Force’s favour yesterday, not anywhere near his real form.

        Cheers – Ben (BDH)

    • Morning Eamon

      Draw makes me wary of Waking Warrior but I’m willing to take the plunge today, think its interesting they step him up in trip and take the claimer off his back.

      Fully see the thoughts with Dungannon and would share that view. Will review my position a couple hours before the race.

      Tawhid gets his ground and I’ve been waiting for this, I’m on, no queries.

      Redvers race is very much a competitive affair but I’m happy to have him on our side in some capacity.

      Best of luck with your other bets as well mate.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  2. A pretty good day all told. My main bet was DUNGANNON (see my notes in his section – I could not see him being beaten but was hoping for better than 9/2 I got and the 3/1 he won at.) Good spot on REDVERS and GORDON LORD BYRON, so should ensure we all end up in profit to some extent.

    • Hi Peter

      Yes well pointed out on Dungannon the other day. I managed to get 5.5 on Betfair 10 minutes before the off (tweeted on twitter for transparency’s sake) and thankfully he managed to at last make use of his handy handicap mark.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  3. Morning Ben. Great day yesterday. Backed redvers as all was right for him and dungannon despite the price. Lethal force was my sprint bet before I saw how much of a print they were making in the first race (mistake to back him before and mistake not to save on GLB). As for tawhid I flagged up his head carriage on his last run (was it a wind issue?) and he just looked awkward again yesterday. Wouldn’t surprise me if something came to light. Once again thanks for another great day. Gary

    • Hi Gary

      Yeah, superb day. Ground just not right for Lethal Force, on the other hand it was perfect for GLB!

      There is talent in Tawhid and I just don’t think they used him to his best ability yesterday. Whether that was pilot error or tactical error (i.e. he was riding to instructions) its hard to say. Head carriage is, again, an interesting point from you and it will be very interesting if anything comes to light.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  4. Ben, good day for you yesterday congratulations.

    As for myself a day to forget disappointed by Tawhid as it appeared everything was in place for a big run but he was never able to mount a serious challenge.

    Redvers won well, but I did not like the look of the race beforehand so one I missed.

    Dungannon I just could not back at the price had a good look at the race during the day and I thought at 16/1 Lady Gibraltar offered the best value and she was my bet only to be beaten a Hd by Dungannon.

    The one race I managed to recoup some of my losses on was with Gordon Lord Byron.

    Today I am going to have a small bet and possibly a risky one at that given her recent form in the 5:10 York on Dancing Primo who is available at 25/1 generally. She won this race by 6L last year from an official rating of 74 runs off 70 today. Looking at her profile all wins have been between 1M 3 ½F and 1M 4F from June to September. She is 6 wins from 13 runs under the above conditions and is 3-3 in September under these conditions. With conditions in her favour today and at 25/1 I think she is worth an EW bet as ¼ the odds with 17 runners here. Any views on this race would be much appreciated.

    • Cheers Eamon

      As for today I don’t play that much in the apprentice type races. I have taken a look and there are plenty runners in it that are ‘well-handicapped’ on old form, including your runner Dancing Primo. Plenty in her favour so cant knock your argument for backing her. Best of luck mate, will cheer her home for you.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  5. Im not really a punter these days due to my growing family & reduced lack of ‘free’ cash to risk, but still read loads and am a massive fan of the sport. I watched saturdays racing at 5am sunday morning with my 9month old, and was really delighted that 3 of the choices went in, despite me not having a penny on them.

    • Hi Mick

      Really appreciate that comment and great to hear you still enjoy the victories despite not backing them yourself, fantastic.

      Also great to hear you are starting your 9 month old on the road to racing at an early age 😀

      Thanks mate

      Ben (BDH)

  6. Pingback: BDH Weekend Review: Job Dun! | Badly Drawn Horse

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s