I don’t wanna dance + New BDH recruit…

I don’t feel like dancing…

Life is difficult at times. We all know that, we all accept that. Finding winners on the gee-gees is also pretty difficult. We all know that, we all accept that as well. So when a horse with latent ability starts making life difficult for himself and in turn making life frustrating for his supporters…it is safe to say we have every right to question our support of said beast.

Yes Dance And Dance I am talking about YOU!!

I’ve watched his run in Sunday’s Cambridgeshire a few times now and every time I’m left with the notion that there is so much left in his tank at the finish, sooooo much! I know I’m not the only one that has been seduced by his performances, he has started to become the master of seduction in recent runs. However, there has to be a time when we say enough is enough, I’m not falling for your ways any more, I’m fed up throwing a portion of my hard-earned cash on you for little to no return, only getting a faint buzz at the end of your races when you start teasing us all with what might have been and would could be in the future.

Sometimes you have to take a stance against these beasts and I’m taking one now. Dance And Dance you are OFF the BDH list. I don’t need time wasters and attention seekers in our squad. We have worked damn hard over the summer and I’m not in the mood to let you spoil the party!

I’m sure Dance And Dance will win again at some stage, if it happens to be next time out I’ll live with it (maybe!), but as far as being a member of our cherished BDH attack force I’m afraid to say (perhaps happy to say!) that your time is up, bye bye.

Not wanting to be overly light with our attack line I myself got involved in transfer deadline day yesterday and after shifting Dance And Dance out of the squad (someone else can deal with the wayward star!) I managed to secure the services of a youngster who I hope can land us something before the season is out…

BDH Review…

Race in focus: 2.05 Sandown (31-08-2013): BETFRED GOALS GALORE HANDICAP – 5f, Class 3 Handicap (14 ran)

How the race played out…

Sandown 31-08

With the 1st & 2nd coming from stalls 2 & 3 it is safe to say that it was an advantage to be drawn low; I’m pretty much coming round to the notion that this is where it pays to be in these tricky Sandown sprints. ASK THE GURU absolutely blitzed out of the gates in stall 1 and that gave a perfect target for BURNING THREAD & TIDAL’S BABY to aim at. The potential front runners from up high, SWENDAB & FRATELLINO, couldn’t get their preferred spot and this again helped it become a low drawn affair. The majority from up high had to switch behind early and this caused plenty of bunching on the far side and middle of the track. ASK THE GURU set a strong pace out front but couldn’t hold it in the final furlong and that gave a perfect slipstream for the eventual first 2 home to sweep past and strike.

There were a few hard-luck stories in-behind with the next 3 home SIR MAXIMILLIAN, DUNGANNON & MISSION APPROVED all meeting some sort of trouble at some stage of the contest.

The end result…

The winner BURNING THREAD was in the prime spot behind the pace setting Ask The Guru and he duly obliged. With retrospect he was well in on old form, had his ground and had previously won over course & distance. Depending on what the handicapper does he may still be able to squeeze out another win before reaching his ceiling again. 2nd home TIDAL’S BABY essentially just couldn’t match the winner and it may just be that he has enough weight for now. This was, however, his 2nd best RPR figure so that’s not conclusive by any means. 3rd home SIR MAXIMILLIAN ran a sound race given that he met trouble in-running and had an average draw. For all this was a solid run he is showing signs that he is held off his current mark. We know all about DUNGANNON in 4th and he was probably slightly more hampered than Sir Maximillian, having to switch numerous time to try and get a run. There was plenty to like about this run and he is still running at a consistent enough level, his time will come. 5th home MISSION APPROVED had the worst draw of all as he was parked widest of the field in the outside box. Moore tracked him across as soon as he could but he had to wait for gaps (on more than 1 occasion) and when they did appear the race was all but over.

BDH to follow…

MISSION APPROVED (5th) (Sir M Stoute)

Having his first run since being gelded and also dropping back to 5f for the first time in his 7 race career, this Dansili 3yo did extremely well to finish only 4 and a bit lengths behind the winner. Ryan Moore had to switch early and bide his time but the gaps just didn’t come in time for him.

He looks a powerful sprinting type as he traveled with plenty of gusto out the back and looks well suited to this drop down in trip. He impressed me with the way he quite easily consented to ghost through the gaps when they did appear and he closed in on the pack with minimal effort when asked by his pilot.

His rating of 80 looks extremely workable, especially when we consider that was gained over 7 & 8f trips. It should also be noted that he recorded his best Proform speed figure to date in this race, by quite some way in fact; another sign that this drop in trip brought about improvement from a potentially very lenient mark.

We don’t have a great deal to go on with regards to preferences as this was only his 7th career start (5th on turf) but his only turf victory to date (has won on the A/W) was gained off Soft ground at Warwick last October and it could be we see more improvement once the ground eases in the final couple of months of the season.

Conditions – As mentioned already we don’t have a great deal to work with although he looks for all the world like a sprinter to me and I am looking for him to be back over the 5f trip, possibly even 6f. Ground he seems adaptable with although ground with cut in it may just be more of a help.

MISSION APPROVED now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. I have a free guide available to all members of the FREE service. It concerns an angle that I follow that can generate huge priced winners! If you are not on the Free service then you can’t get the guide. You can join and pick up numerous free guides at the following page >>> Join the BDH/NTF community

Today I’ll leave you with the immortal words of Mr Eddy Grant…

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6 thoughts on “I don’t wanna dance + New BDH recruit…

  1. Ha good old Dance & Dance. He certainly splits opinion in the racing world. I have thought for a while now that the Cambridgeshire is made for him so will stick with him until then. Wide open spaces at a track he has gone well at before, plenty of cover and a trip that should be close to ideal mean that I will be playing with one of the bookies offering 5 or maybe 6 places.I know plenty of people, all wiser than me, who have already jumped ship so it will probably be to my cost.

    • Hi Ian

      Yes, I perhaps didn’t boot him off the list quite as easily as I may have made out as there was that slight niggle in the back of my head about the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket.

      Good luck if you stick with him, hopefully it pays off 🙂

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  2. Re: Dance And Dance my first instinct after Sunday’s run at the Curragh was that he would never carry a cent of my money again because I thought the course would have been perfect and the more I pondered his performance the more perplexed I was by it. So when I had some spare time I decided to carry out a thorough analyst of his previous races and this is what came to light…

    I have only looked at his runs in the UK and Ireland as that is what is in my database.
    Total Runs 40
    Total Wins 6
    AW Runs 12 Wins 2 Places 4
    Turf Runs 28 Wins 4 Places 9

    Now I am just going to concentrate on his turf runs for further analyst…
    Now on going good or softer he has run 18 Won 4 Places 5
    He has had 10 runs on good to firm and lost each time.

    Next when I look at the rest period between runs…
    21 days or more Runs 11 Wins 4 Places 2 (the two places were after a break of 180+ days)

    But now what I find hard to explain and would appreciate any comments please…

    Under the above conditions i.e. Turf, Good or softer going, 21 days or more since his last run, his record is Runs 11 Wins 4 Places 2. Digging a litter deeper when he has managed to place 2nd in one of his last three runs his record now reads 5 Runs 4 Wins 1 Place

    19.07.2012 Doncaster Dance And Dance (IRE) 7/4 1st/6
    1.06.2012 Epsom Dance And Dance (IRE) 5/1 2nd/6
    3.06.2011 Epsom Dance And Dance (IRE) 15/2 1st/18
    30.09.2010 Newmarket (Rowley) Dance And Dance (IRE) 33/1 1st/15
    7.05.2010 Chester Dance And Dance (IRE) 10/1 1st/12

    Now if I add back in the AW along with the conditioned outlined above I get…
    7 Runs 5 Wins 2 Places

    19.07.2012 Doncaster Dance And Dance (IRE) 7/4 1st/6
    1.06.2012 Epsom Dance And Dance (IRE) 5/1 2nd/6
    3.06.2011 Epsom Dance And Dance (IRE) 15/2 1st/18
    30.09.2010 Newmarket (Rowley) Dance And Dance (IRE) 33/1 1st/15
    7.05.2010 Chester Dance And Dance (IRE) 10/1 1st/12
    14.10.2009 Kempton Dance And Dance (IRE) 11/1 1st/12
    11.02.2009 Lingfield Dance And Dance (IRE) 11/4 2nd/10

    I don’t know for certain if the visor he has run in for his last 4 runs is a negative

  3. Placed second in one of his three previous runs and no other condition applied…
    2,1, 6, 2, 1, 0, 3, 1, 0, 6, 1, 0, 3, 1, 5, 2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 0
    6 Wins – 4 2nds – 4 3rds – 21 runs
    Therefore i may give him another chance when conditions are favourable any comment more than welcome please.

    • Eamon

      Fantastic research, just the sort I love.

      Most times I would say this sort of analysis is perfect for a horse (as you know I use similar a lot of the time) however I feel with Dance&Dance it isn’t, as usual, that straight forward.

      You are right with the 0 wins from 10 on Good to Firm however if we look at his RPR figures his best one was actually recorded on… Good to Firm!

      He is a tricky horse to fathom and he seems to be making life even trickier for himself on the track!

      I love the in depth analysis though Eamon and like you I would be very interested to hear others thoughts on the enigma that is Dance & Dance!!

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  4. Pingback: BDH Saturday Qualifier: Dinkum done by the downpour? | Badly Drawn Horse

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