BDH Saturday runners: Dunny ready to do the business?

Google tells me this scary little fella is also called Dunny!?

Two of our BDH squad take to the field on Saturday so no time for any wiffle-waffle, lets get stuck into my thoughts on them both…

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON – 205 Sandown

Fist things first we have him back on the track within that all important 28 day window; 17 days since his last start will do just dandy.

Back down at 5 furlongs is also a good move in my opinion; that will do just fine for me as well.

Ground should be OK and track configuration should also be within the ballpark.

Draw, however, I have a wee question mark. I don’t think middle is ideal in large fields at Sandown over the 5f. To be honest I think straight track blitzes at Sandown are tricky, they don’t always play out how I expect them to. However, lets take it that this one will play out like normal I have the pace coming from the high stalls (boxes 12 & 13) and that should, hopefully, play to the hands of our boy DUNGANNON.

At the projected 10-1 odds I’ll have a bit of him each-way. He is well handicapped and is returning within the correct time-frame; it’s time for Dunny to do the business for us!

BDH Runner: THUNDERBALL- 255 Chester

In my own words…

“Essentially we are looking for 6 furlongs and soft” – Here we have 7 and 1/2 furlongs and Good!

“He is yet to prove he is up to winning a really valuable contest (20k+) but if he gets his conditions it would not be hard to see him running well in such a race” – This is worth 28k to the winner and he doesn’t look to have conditions!

“4 of his 5 turf wins have come on a straight track and although that condition isn’t a necessity it probably is preferable” – This is round the tight Left-Handed Chester track!

His stall draw would be average as well.

Yeah I think I will leave him here to be honest!!

If he somehow wins this you will probably hear my yells of “How the F**K did he win that” from wherever you are in the universe!!

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

FREE BDH Handicap Sleepers Guide

Hopefully you all managed to download the free guide I sent out yesterday. If you haven’t yet then find yesterday’s email that I sent out and grab the guide now, it’s well worth your time (if I don’t say so myself).

As you will have noticed there were 2 qualifiers from the guide running on Friday but neither of them were running under preferred conditions (so no bet). Both soundly beaten as well so an even bigger and better price on offer (hopefully!) when they do meet their ideal conditions next time.

If you want to grab this in-depth and FREE guide (all 21 pages of it!!) then head to the following page and pop your details into the sign-up form…

>>>Register for your FREE BDH Handicap Sleepers Guide

*The FREE Guide is on the FREE BDH Guides page not the Free NTF Guides page. Both links will be sent to you in the same email.

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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11 thoughts on “BDH Saturday runners: Dunny ready to do the business?

  1. Great Stuff Ben, and thanks for the guides – full of interesting info as ever. The draw at Sandown is a tricky one – i dont know what the stats are. I had a good bet in Rocket Rob today over 5f at Sandown, drawn 8 of 11. there was no clear scorching pace which mean there was 4 or so contesting from start, loads of traffic behind and rocket, as expected, swept down outside to win easily. this contrasts to doctor parkes win for us earlier in season where he was really close up to pace and close to rail. who knows! i think what i am saying is if odds are good enough (10/1) good enough for me, i wont pay too much attention to draw!

    i also reckon, from brief look at RP comments there may not be too much blistering pace and it may come down to horse that can quicken best. The other two who i have baked are joe packet (who i strongly fancy) and Edge Closer who i reckon may well have been aimed at this race as he won it last year,

    good luck!

    • Hi Josh

      Yes, Sandown straight track draw not really a clear cut thing in my experience. Stats don’t help much to be honest, bit sporadic. The draw is something you need to take with liberal kinda view here I think.

      I think there will be decent pace on in this race and it should come high, just depends on where the front-runners head…

      Cheers & Good luck – Ben (BDH)

  2. Dungannon – seems a bit late in the day to be trying a first time visor on an apparently genuine horse. The fact they tried cheekpieces for the first time last time gives the impression they feel as though it’s reached its limit, which would be supported by its last 8 runs.

    Horses that continually run decent races but keep slightly dropping down the hcap whilst never really getting closer always seem to be turning increasingly one paced. It’s just not easily recognisable with this horse as he is consistent. I guess a furious pace with the front runners collapsing would be the ideal scenario.

    Good luck, I’ll just watch this one.

    • Hi Andrew

      I wouldn’t say it is that late in the day for the first time V’s, only had 25 runs so not been to the well that many times.

      I do agree, to an extent, with your point about those horses that run well and keep dropping in the weights although in this case I just feel he has been running in race that are just above his level and from a mark that is just above his ceiling.

      Today wouldn’t be absolute ideal conditions but they are good enough, for me anyway, to warrant an interest.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  3. I agree with Andrew on this one. Balding’s record with first time visor is poor.

    You could say Dungannon would be better in a small field, although the majority of runs in bigger fields have been off OR 90+.

    • Hi accountantselecta

      I wouldn’t be too worried about Balding’s first time V record, wins with about as many as the market suggests he should. On that score he isn’t under-performing any, even if on the bare figures it isn’t anything to shout about.

      Can see the argument with the small fields but he did perform very well in a couple of large field handicaps at Ascot last season, career bests on the figures as well.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  4. Good morning Ben, and thanks for the free guides yesterday. Having spent the last couple of hours studying the 2:05 at Sandown I am convinced a low draw has a big advantage in 5F races and even more so on good to firm going which is forecast for today. This is not to say that a horse cannot win for a double figure stall but they are at a huge disadvantage compared to low numbers.

    Looking at 5F handicaps run on good to firm at Sandown with 10 or more runners (51 races)…
    The bottom third have won 64.70%
    The middle third have won 29.41%
    The top third 5.89%

    In fact 47.05% of the winners came from the lowest 3 stalls.

    Of the runners drawn low today, Burning Thread would appear to hold the best chance in my opinion. 7/1 the best price available.

    It is also interesting that the “Postdata” selection is Dungannon 8/1 the best price available.

  5. Hi Eamon

    I’m not convinced with the draw, I think it is favourable to be low but not imperative. It all really depends on how they split and if they split. I find the Sandown angle one of the trickiest to be honest. The pace, to me, looks to come from high, but again it depends if those high ones head to the far rail….

    We will soon see….

    Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  6. I’m was not sure the draw would be quite so relevant today particularly as the rails were moved significantly – however, Burning Thread was drawn 3 so had a theoretically favourable draw and in the end won comfortably – might just have been how the race was run which didn’t seem to help the hold up horses who never really got into it

    • Hi Andy

      The race unfolded today how I worried it might and that did, unfortunately, seem to impede Dungannon. The probable front-runners couldn’t quite get to the front and that seemed to cause a bit of congestion.

      The result did back up Eamon’s draw analysis above so that is something for us to mull over…

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  7. Hi All.

    Been running the rule over the final 5 furlong handicap at Ascot on Saturday, where DUNGANNON is entered and I’ve come to the conclusion he’s got everything in his favour. Yes we don’t know what the ground will be like and the ‘pace map’ for races at the course has made a fool of me more than once in the past however he is drawn right up against the stand rail (always a plus to be drawn against arail either side here IMO). He has pace horse like STONE OF FOLCA, MONUMENTAL MAN and RYLEE MOOCH all drawn high to tow his side along (can only see PEACE SEEKER cutting out the pace on the inside – they’re all hold up types over there). He’s still incredibly well-handicapped as Ben’s analysis has highlighted and according to Nick Mordin, headgear works better second and third time applied (he retains the visor here that was debuted at Sandown last week).

    This is a weaker race than at Sandown too, with several horses (on my figures) never putting up figures that would make them competitive in a 0-90 handicap at a Grade 1 course.

    We’ll see what the weather holds over the next 24 hours and of course, what his price is, but keep the faith because he has a lot in his favour at this point.

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