Rocking to the Knavesmire Beat with an early Ebor fancy …

Is Tropical ready to Beat all-comers in the Ebor?

The 2013 York Ebor Festival rumbles into action on the Knavesmire next week and I’ll be covering a handful of the races here on the BDH Blog for your punting delights.

The highlight of the week is the Ebor itself, run on the Saturday over the stamina testing 1m6f trip. I know it’s not a straight track blitz race but it does provide some strong race trends and is a race I like getting my teeth into.

There is still a mass of entries in the valuable handicap and although I’m not a huge ante-post player (not by any stretch of the imagination) I do like taking an early look at some of the major races and, at the very least, getting my eye in on who is most likely to fit the trends.

With over a week until the tapes go up for the contest we obviously don’t yet know the draw, what the ground will be like and the pace angle (as in how the race is likely to shape up). It should also be noted that on the wider trends front there will be some horses that won’t qualify if we did the trends now but may well qualify when the trends are applied once the final field is know. Nevertheless I have taken 5 of the strongest Ebor trends from my own research and applied them to the current entries to see if anything stands out at us.

The trends I have used are…

15/15 had an OR of 102 & below

14/15 finished in the top 2 on 1 of their last 3 starts

13/15 were aged 3, 4 or 5 (other 2 were 6yo)

13/15 were (IRE) or (GB) bred

12/15 ran within the past 26 days

Surprisingly that chops the huge field down into only the following 10 ‘contenders’…

Montaser | Tropical Beat | Plinth | Duke Of Clarence | Clowance Estate | Noble Silk | Renew | Homeric | Arch Villain | Party Line

From that motley crew the one that interests me the most is the David O’Meara trained TROPICAL BEAT.

He runs off a mark of 97 here (officially 2lbs ‘well in’) and after only 11 turf starts there is plenty reason to believe he has improvement still to come. His last run at Musselburgh was his first of the season and also his first for O’Meara and it isn’t hard to think that he will come on plenty for the outing.

He has placed form at the track and over the trip, looks fairly adaptable with regards to ground (yet to face softer than Good to Soft admittedly) and handles large fields.

He has form lines that tie in with some decent animals and with the Musselburgh race likely to have gotten him cherry ripe for this he looks a value proposition at this stage. Oh yeah, his Dosage figures also sit kindly with previous winners as well.

Things may well change dramatically once I apply the full might of the BDH ‘Trosage’ machine but for now I’m pretty keen on the chances of TROPICAL BEAT.

A general 25/1 looks a fair price at this stage.

Resumption of NTF…

Yes it’s that time of the year again. The time of the year where the National Hunt big guns will be filing back into their respective National Hunt yards ready to resume full training, or at least starting to shed the summer poundage they may have accumulated over the last few months.

That also means that NTF will be starting to rev it’s engines and getting ready to burst out of it’s summer slumber!

I’ve already got an excellent guest blogger lined up for you for the start of next month and I’ll also be supplying the members of the FREE NTF list with a sprinkling of FREE NTF guides to get their National Hunt juices well and truly flowing.

If you are already a member of the free NTF service then you need do nothing more. If you’re not and you want to grab the free guides when they are ready then a quick sign up at the following page – www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/free-ntf-guides-and-e-books – is all it takes.

I can almost see that Cheltenham hill appearing on the horizon, almost…

Ben (BDH/NTF)

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3 thoughts on “Rocking to the Knavesmire Beat with an early Ebor fancy …

  1. Excellent stuff , Ben ..I always thoroughly enjoy reading your analyses of the big races, and over the period I am sure they are profitable.

    • Many thanks Murray and glad you enjoy the analysis.

      I find the big race approach I take (Trends, Dosage, etc…) to be an excellent pointer throughout the season. Clearly it doesn’t always work and I don’t always manage to back the correct one from my analysis but more often than not the winner will be on that all important shortlist. Thankfully I nail the winner/placed horses enough to make a profit but I know of others who use my figures for their own use and land more winners than I do (which is excellent!!).

      Many thanks for the comment

      Ben (BDH)

  2. Pingback: Betfred Ebor Handicap Dosage & Trends Analysis | Badly Drawn Horse

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