BDH Stewards Cup Analysis: DD hoping to Hoof It to glory…

Aah Glorious Goodwood, Glorious freakin’ Goodwood! Unless in some dark and distant land Glorious means “the festival of finding trouble in-running” I think they should re-name it! In truth I’m being a bit harsh, I actually enjoy watching the meeting, just not punting on it as much, it’s a bit too in and out for my liking (I’ve learned this through numerous roller-coaster Glorious Goodwood punting experiences!) so I’m actually quite pleased I haven’t gotten too involved in the punting side this week.

The 2 BDH runners I did open up the punting bank for this Friday both got checked at vital stages in their forward runs (as is far too often the case at Goodwood!) and Duke Of Firenze most certainly still had plenty of nitro boost left in his rocket pack, he just had no room to use it!

Anyway here is my take on how our 3 troopers performed and my thoughts on them going forward from here…

TAWHID (2nd in the Thoroughbred Stakes) – I was more than happy with this run and also more than happy to have not punted him. He coped well enough on the Good ground but he still gave me the impression he wants at least Good to Soft and on the day was beaten by the better horse who was also more suited by conditions. Tawhid will get his chance once the rain gets into the ground at the back end of the season, and then we will be on and collecting the profit.

DANCE AND DANCE (10th in the Betfred Mile) – I think this was a case of Moore wanting the horse closer the pace but the horse wanting to do the usual and sit out the back. Moore had him well enough placed but when he made his move around 2f out the path he intended taking started closing rapidly and he had to switch. I don’t think it was the difference between winning & losing but it may have cost him nicking a place. He still remains of utmost interest from his current handicap mark.

DUKE OF FIRENZE (10th in the King George Stakes) – Traveled well enough but the doors just didn’t open at the right times for him. It still doesn’t confirm or deny whether he is a Group animal in the making but there is a large part of me that wants to see him tackle a handicap off this current mark, I really do think he can land a large handicap pot from his rating. Moore was easy enough on him once the lanes up ahead started squeezing shut and he still remains of interest.

We have another of our BDH crew taking to the Sussex Downs on day 5 of the “Glorious” Festival in the cavalry charge that is the Stewards Cup…

Saturday BDH Runner – DINKUM DIAMOND – 3.50 Stewards’ Cup

With 28 runners set to go to post the pace map is, as ever, a fine place to start…

Stewards Cup

From a pace perspective it looks like there is a good chance that it will be split right across the track. There is probable pace coming from Top (WHOZTHECAT), Middle (BLAINE) and Bottom (DR RED EYE). DINKUM DIAMOND is drawn almost slap bang in the middle and that gives him options on the pace side although he could just fire straight down the middle and hook on to the pace of Blaine. Draw/pace wise he looks fine.

Next up I want to look at the ground. My stipulation for him is Good to Firm; all his career wins have come on such a surface. At the moment Goodwood is sitting at Good (Good to Firm in places). For me that would be OK as he has run some sound races on Good ground and the G2F patches suggest it is currently heading for the faster side anyway. There are showers forecast so if there is significant softening of the ground then I would most likely be looking to jump ship, however at the minute I’m good with the likely underfoot conditions.

From a handicapping perspective I would say his mark (103) is well within his grasp and he is only 1lb higher than his 3rd in the Dash at Epsom and 3lbs higher than his excellent 3rd at Ascot last time out.

Cathy Gannon is getting to know him very well (17033) so it’s a positive that she keeps the ride.

I know he is yet to win over 6 furlongs but he has ran some eye-catching races over the trip and the way he was finishing last time out over the distance at Ascot tells me this isn’t too much of a worry, in fact he has actually ran to within 2lbs of his 5f form over the furlong longer trip, 6f does not scare me with this lad.

Ideally we want drying ground for DD but at the moment the conditions are enough to persuade me to punt and at around 18-1 (larger on Betfair) I’m happy to take the plunge. I will naturally be keeping an eye on the weather though…

*Note – Ground now changed to Good all round but no showers are forecast and it is set to be a dry and breezy day. Again it is a case of keeping an eye on proceedings, watching the weather and seeing how the first few races play out…

To be honest this contest looks tricky, fast and furiously tricky! But then it’s Glorious Goodwood and the Stewards Cup, we should expect nothing less.

I generally like to have a cover bet running for me in these sprint minefields so I gave the entire field a quick analysis with my own trends… but that didn’t really clear the waters much, there were a number within close proximity of each other.

Hoof It, Face The Problem & Prodigality are the 3 that I finally settled upon to make up my cover bet shortlist. Of that 3 I’m leaning towards 2011 winner HOOF IT.

He missed most of last year due to a couple of problems but he returned to action at York last month. That was over an inadequate 5f and clearly that was a race to simply blow away the cobwebs and smooth off the rough edges. He ran well without over exerting himself that day and he is sure to strip much fitter here.

He is only 1lb higher than when winning this race 2 years ago and considering he finished 1/4L 3rd behind Dream Ahead & Bated Breath in the 2011 Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup I don’t see this mark being much of a problem.

Kieran Fallon back on top is a massive positive, with the pair having a 7117116 record together when teaming up.

He likes the ground, handles the trip and track, enjoys the thrill of large field sprints (4 wins from 10 runs) and Easterby is sure to have him primed to the minute for this repeat bid.

Like most Goodwood contests I’m fully prepared for hard luck stories in-running, especially with 28 runners belting it down the 6f straight track, but you gotta be in it to win it and I’ll be having a dabble on BDH runner DINKUM DIAMOND (providing the ground looks OK and doesn’t deteriorate) and a covering bet on 2011 winner HOOF IT.

Best of luck if you are getting involved in this fiendishly difficult conundrum.

Ben (BDH)

 

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16 thoughts on “BDH Stewards Cup Analysis: DD hoping to Hoof It to glory…

  1. Hi Alan

    Ground probably the main ‘issue’ for Dinkum but lets see how the turf is playing out, may well be quick enough. Can’t argue too much with Rex Imp, he was one of a few right at the top of my own trends analysis.

    Best of luck mate – Ben (BDH)

  2. I backed DD last night so, once again, you’ve confirmed my thinking Ben. Thank you! I’ve had a bit of a hopeful cover bet with Pabusar at 40/1. Dreadful recent form but looks to be becoming dangerously h’capped and I actually think 6f suits better.

    All the best
    David

    • Hi David

      It’s a bloody tricky race so if you have reasons for going for Pabusar then fire in. A cover bet a decent price in this sort of race is no bad thing at all.

      Will cheer him home for you if he looks like winning. Best of luck.

      Ben (BDH)

  3. good read ben, had thorough look at 3.50 last night – and was one of those races where you could find a reason (based on stats, handicap mark,ground) why none of them should win!! but funnily enough i ended up with face the problem and prodigality. concern over ground (7ml rain overnight) and still 6f for dinkum, and still think he may need to drop 2/3lb. however, you make a compelling case so will put a saver on!! good luck

    • Fully agree Josh. Was picking through it last night and I was like ‘he can’t win’ ‘he is up against it’ ‘he won’t like these conditions’, just one of those puzzles where it is hard to make a really strong case for one over the others but you can make a decent enough case for a more than a few!?

      Face The Problem & Prodigality were maybe marginally ahead of the rest (along with DD and Hoof It) but I can make decent arguments why they won’t win as well!!

      Rain certainly an quibble about DD but it could well dry out again by time race comes around….

      Best of luck mate – Ben (BDH)

  4. Ben wishing you well with Dinkum Diamond. Looking at the trends for this race over the past 16 years there has been 83 runners that had failed to win over the distance previously and all 83 were beaten, with just 7 managing a place. This stat alone is enough is enough to set the alarm bells ringing for me. Having looked at this race from a trends angle Tropics would be my selection. And Racy, Heavens Guest and Rex Imperator the strongest of the remainder.

    • Hi Eamon – Yeah I was aware of that 6f stat, slight concern being that I am a trends man myself but for BDH runners I try and keep away from my trends approach (as much as I can) and utilize my others forms of analysis. I was quite taken by DD over 6f last time out and I do think he can score over that trip at some stage.

      Best of luck mate – Ben (BDH)

    • Fair comments accountantselecta. I think he has the ability to land a big field contest though as he has come close a couple of times.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

    • Cheers Ian and fully agree with you re. the comments. Great to have intelligent input from the BDH readers, fully encouraged from me. And yes once again well done to Alan and his Stewards Cup winning punt 🙂

      Ben (BDH)

  5. was a good race. thankfully i backed the winner of the first handicap at 2.05 16/1 which set me up for the day. stats are there to be broken, Rex was on my shortlist but was put off by stat that all of last 11 winners had won at least 3 times – however that is one of those stats that in hindsight shouldnt just be used by itself. looking through his form and watching a few of his runs he was threatening to put in a performance like that and with 15 runs had ample room for improvement. Cant win all the big sprints i suppose!! haha,
    well done alan,

    • Indeed Josh. As much as I/we would love to nail all the big sprints there are going to be a fair few losers along the way due to the nature of these races (large fields/poor draws/trouble in-running…).

      Good to hear you had the first race winner 🙂

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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