BDH Sunday Runner: D&D aiming for an Irish Jig?

Hopefully D&D will have the luck of the Irish!

We make a very rare foray across the Irish Sea for a BDH qualifier today, with one of our squad taking to the track in the Irish Cambridgeshire at Curragh.

Before that, however, just a few thoughts on Yesterday’s runners…

DUNGANNON – 205 Sandown

An each-way bet was suggested and he finished a fine and dandy…4th! Would have been fine if the full 16 had gone to post…but they didn’t, we had 2 non-runners. The race pace played out a bit muddling, didn’t really suit our lad and the gaps did not appear when needed. That’s racing, however, and there are no excuses here.

I’m still not convinced by the Sandown draw but it could be argued that Dunny ran well again from a poor draw…

THUNDERBALL – 255 Chester

He was a no bet for us anyway as he pretty much had nothing in his favour here and as predicted he ran like it. Hopefully, however, it will give us a massive price next time out, if of course he fits our criteria.

Now onto today’s BDH qualifier…

Sunday BDH Runner: DANCE AND DANCE – 445 Curragh

To be fair I wasn’t really expecting him to appear in Ireland but kudos for connection for looking a bit further afield in their bid to get him back in the winners enclosure.

The return to 1 mile is a positive move for me, in my opinion that’s where he is most effective at these days.

Ryan Moore back in the plate is also a huge bonus. His record on D&D is a rather fetching 12240. Moore also has a solid record at the track with 9 wins from 31 for a 29% S/R.

He runs well when returning after a break of 15 days or less and has proven in the past that he runs very well in large fields.

It’s a tough race to try and win, with more than a few unexposed sorts going into battle, but back at a mile and with Moore in the saddle I’m happy to pitch in again on D&D.

I’ll be honest though we can’t keep giving D&D that many more chances, his days may well be numbered as a fully paid up member of the BDH squad…

Ben (BDH)

 

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BDH Saturday runners: Dunny ready to do the business?

Google tells me this scary little fella is also called Dunny!?

Two of our BDH squad take to the field on Saturday so no time for any wiffle-waffle, lets get stuck into my thoughts on them both…

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON – 205 Sandown

Fist things first we have him back on the track within that all important 28 day window; 17 days since his last start will do just dandy.

Back down at 5 furlongs is also a good move in my opinion; that will do just fine for me as well.

Ground should be OK and track configuration should also be within the ballpark.

Draw, however, I have a wee question mark. I don’t think middle is ideal in large fields at Sandown over the 5f. To be honest I think straight track blitzes at Sandown are tricky, they don’t always play out how I expect them to. However, lets take it that this one will play out like normal I have the pace coming from the high stalls (boxes 12 & 13) and that should, hopefully, play to the hands of our boy DUNGANNON.

At the projected 10-1 odds I’ll have a bit of him each-way. He is well handicapped and is returning within the correct time-frame; it’s time for Dunny to do the business for us!

BDH Runner: THUNDERBALL- 255 Chester

In my own words…

“Essentially we are looking for 6 furlongs and soft” – Here we have 7 and 1/2 furlongs and Good!

“He is yet to prove he is up to winning a really valuable contest (20k+) but if he gets his conditions it would not be hard to see him running well in such a race” – This is worth 28k to the winner and he doesn’t look to have conditions!

“4 of his 5 turf wins have come on a straight track and although that condition isn’t a necessity it probably is preferable” – This is round the tight Left-Handed Chester track!

His stall draw would be average as well.

Yeah I think I will leave him here to be honest!!

If he somehow wins this you will probably hear my yells of “How the F**K did he win that” from wherever you are in the universe!!

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

FREE BDH Handicap Sleepers Guide

Hopefully you all managed to download the free guide I sent out yesterday. If you haven’t yet then find yesterday’s email that I sent out and grab the guide now, it’s well worth your time (if I don’t say so myself).

As you will have noticed there were 2 qualifiers from the guide running on Friday but neither of them were running under preferred conditions (so no bet). Both soundly beaten as well so an even bigger and better price on offer (hopefully!) when they do meet their ideal conditions next time.

If you want to grab this in-depth and FREE guide (all 21 pages of it!!) then head to the following page and pop your details into the sign-up form…

>>>Register for your FREE BDH Handicap Sleepers Guide

*The FREE Guide is on the FREE BDH Guides page not the Free NTF Guides page. Both links will be sent to you in the same email.

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

New BDH squad member: “He always runs while others walk”…

Nice flippers Mr Bond!

A couple of things to cover today here on BDH with a quick look back at the weather decimated Ebor Handicap from Saturday and a new addition to our BDH forward line, in the shape of a runner who will be looking for the rain to continue…

Ebor Handicap Debrief…

Safe to say the Ebor was a royal pain in the ass for me! I went into the morning with 3 fairly solid strings to my bow (including what I thought was a rather tasty 25-1 Ante-Post shot) and by lunchtime (4 hours from the race) I was left with a rather feeble 1 strong attack line!!

It’s very rare that I play ante-post (it doesn’t really fit with my punting style) so you can imagine how happy/smug I was feeling with my 25-1 ticket on Tropical Beat, who in some places was trading as low as single figures, thanks to a certain Mr Pricewise. You can then imagine my overwhelming sense of utter deflation when I heard he was a non-runner!!! Safe to say I turned the air a nasty colour of blue for a few minutes in the BDH office! If I’m honest I think a number of the Non-Runners were a bit hasty. The track wasn’t actually riding that slow/soft, visually or on the clock. In fact I had a look at the results in my Proform database on Sunday and it told me the track was riding more like Good to Soft than Soft. I’m assuming connections walked the track before pulling their runners from the race and I can only assume it then felt softer than it actually was. Anyhoo it’s a moot point now and the result was that I was left with a threadbare attack from my initial selections. Best thing to do then is revert to my shortlist…

Here is how the shortlist from the FREE analysis guide fared…

TIGER CLIFF 18/19 – 1st @ BFSP 7.06

NO HERETIC 18/19 – NON-RUNNER

OPINION 16/19 – 10th @ BFSP 6.57

GUARANTEE 16/19 – 7th @ BFSP 18

SHEIKHZAYEDROAD 15/19 – 9th @ BFSP 25.97

CARAVAN ROLLS ON 15/19 – 11th @ BFSP 8

SUN CENTRAL 15/19 – NON_RUNNER

With the withdrawal of No Heretic Lady Cecil’s Tiger Cliff was left clear on his own at the top of the shortlist and he went on to justify his top ranking on the BDH figures with a well timed victory under Tom Queally.

It’s a minor reward for what was a bit of a bugger of a race and hopefully some of you reverted to the figures once the runners started dropping  like flies.

There has been word in the past that the winner may eventually end up going hurdling and although I am a dyed in the wool National Hunt man I don’t think I would be too keen on that option, he surely has enough to offer on the flat without going pot-hunting over timber?

BDH Review…

I’m stepping back 2 Saturday’s to seek out our new squad member…

Race in focus: 3.30 Ripon (17-08-2013): William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes – 6f, Class 2 Handicap (20 ran)

How the race played out…

Great St Wilf review

Pace wise this was all about the low numbers. As mentioned in my race analysis for the Great St Wilf the pace looked to be coming from middle to low and large field sprints over the Ripon 6f weigh heavily in favour of those drawn in the low stalls. The field split into 2 groups (as is the norm in this contest) with 8 staying high and the rest sticking to the far rail. Confirmed front-runner and track specialist  SPINATRIX was the one to pull the field along from her 1 stall, closely followed by RODRIGO DE TORRES from his 7 stall. SPINATRIX held the front spot for most of the contest and it was her strong front-running tactics that were one of the main contributing factors to the low to middle dominance of this race.  There were also a large group of the low-middle runners that were sitting close to the pace and this again made sure that the high numbers had their work cut out to get involved. From up high it was DR RED EYE that tried to lead his side along but despite his valiant effort he was always up against it.

The end result clearly showed that it was an advantage to be drawn low with the first 4 home being drawn in stall 9 or below, anything finishing in the ball park from up high deserves our utmost attention.

The end result…

We know all about the winner BACCARAT. He was on our BDH list, he was in the prime spot throughout the race and was able to pick up the pace-setting Spinatrix in the final 50 or so yards. The Fahey youngster probably has more to come and it will be very interesting to see where they go from here. 2nd placed SPINATRIX ran a career best on the figures and although she may still just be improving her new mark of 105 could start to make life pretty tricky. If she doesn’t prove up to that mark then it will be interesting if her mark drops back down enough to be competitive in the 2014 renewal of this race (*makes a mental note for August 2014!). 3rd placed RODRIGO DE TORRES ran a highly credible race and he is on a mark he can score from if conditions are correct. 4th home REGAL PARADE easily did best of those that tried to come from out the back and although he was under the pump fairly early on he did keep responding and was doing his best work late on. He is a 9yo now but his mark is creeping down all the time and he has been producing some consistent figures, it would be no surprise to see him pop into the winners enclosure before the season is out. 5th home SUMMERINTHECITY was the first home from the high numbers and that may be simply due to the fact his jockey shifted him closer to the middle of the track at the 3f pole. He looks on a tricky handicap mark at the minute and my personal feeling is that he needs to drop at least a few lbs before winning again. Next home from the top group, and filling 6th spot overall, was the Scott Dixon trained THUNDERBALL. This would have been ground he wouldn’t have appreciated and from his extremely tricky draw in stall 17 he put in a very eye-catching performance.

BDH to follow…

THUNDERBALL (6th) (S Dixon)

As already mentioned in detail those drawn high were at a significant disadvantage. THUNDERBALL in box 17 had no choice really but to stay high and essentially his cards were marked as soon as Spinatrix in stall 1 blasted off in the lead. He is also very much a horse that relies on Soft underfoot conditions to produce his best and as such the Good ground he met was also unlikely to suit him. With those 2 major factors against him his 6 length 6th is a very eye-catching performance indeed.

Staying with his ground preferences here is the breakdown of his form figures on different conditions…

Heavy – 0 wins from 2 start

Soft – 4 wins from 9 starts

Good to Soft or better – 1 win from 40 starts

A/W – 5 wins from 29

Interestingly all 4 of his turf victories have been over 6 furlongs and all 5 of his A/W victories have been over 7f or 8f; a clear indicator that on the turf his ideal trip is 6f.

As it is the turf we are really concerned with here lets take a bit of a closer look…

First up his Soft ground form line reads an impressive 323611011; clearly he loves running when the ground is officially described as Soft.

On the distance side of things here are the breakdowns over the different trips…

6f – 5 wins from 19 starts

6 1/2f or further – 0 wins from 32 starts

6 furlongs the ideal trip? I’d say that’s an affirmative!

If we squeeze things up just a touch more and look ONLY at his 6f form on Soft ground we get a rather impressive form line of 1111. Those 4 wins were gained from handicap marks of 91-86-90-85. He currently sits on OR 90 and the figures and visual evidence tells us that is a mark he is more than capable of running well from, indeed he is more than capable of winning from.

Conditions – Essentially we are looking for 6 furlongs and soft! Simple! He is currently on a mark that he has proven he can win from in the past so from a handicapping perspective this mark or below is where we want him.

He is yet to prove he is up to winning a really valuable contest (20k+) but if he gets his conditions it would not be hard to see him running well in such a race. 4 of his 5 turf wins have come on a straight track and although that condition isn’t a necessity it probably is preferable.

In summary we want 6 furlongs on soft from a mark of 90 or below. The probable area for him to strike will be in a less than 20k to the winner race on a straight track although I would be flexible on that score.

THUNDERBALL now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. Thanks to those of you that joined my SkyBet Super 6 mini league. We can at least try and beat each other as we try and nail that £250,000 first prize!

p.p.s I will have a free guide available soon to all members of the FREE service. It concerns an angle that I follow that can generate huge priced winners! If you are not on the Free service then you won’t get the guide. You can join and pick up numerous free guides at the following page >>> Join the BDH/NTF community

Betfred Ebor Handicap Dosage & Trends Analysis

Can O’Meara’s form continue through to the big one?

Well it’s safe to say that it was all bets off on Dinkum Diamond on waking up on Friday morning! On writing my article it was looking great, he was set to race on his favoured Good to Firm ground. On clicking publish on the post news started to reach me that the heavens had opened over the Knavesmire, a quick check of Twitter confirmed that York was indeed being swamped by biblical style rain. On waking up a quick check of the going confirmed we were looking at Good to Soft. Gun back in it’s holster and trigger not pulled on the Dinkum Diamond bet. It’s a royal pain in the ass but he was never going to win on that ground and I was never going to waste my money on him under those conditions. Frustrating…

In the race itself I DID back SHEA SHEA & ROSDHU QUEEN. For a brief moment I though our main selection was going to get up but he just wasn’t getting there. Did the rain softened/rain lashed ground blunt his speed? Probably, but that’s racing. He wouldn’t be as dependent on Good to Firm as, say, Dinkum D so for all it was an inconvenience I wouldn’t use it as an excuse, he only went down by 1/2 a length after all.

But what of the winner JWALA? A surprise winner? My first reaction was yes but once I looked at my own figures I had to say no, not so much. On my final figures she sat in the next group down from the shortlist (along with Tickled Pink) with a combined score of 12/16. Once the full subscription service kicks in over the jumps I will probably look to include all combined scores within the guide for subscribers to use.

Going forward from the race DINKUM DIAMOND remains on the BDH list. It was pretty clear after all my Good to Firm waffling yesterday that come the morning of the race he was a no-bet for us and we should read nothing more into it other than conditions went completely against him. We may be hard pushed to get on him in a Good to Firm 5f race before the season is out but we live in hope and, as always, at the mercy of the Great British weather…

Ebor Handicap full Analysis Guide…

I feel we are in for another bit of weather watching for Saturday’s action on the Knavesmire as the weather forecast is for more heavy rain to lash the track. Whether it will be in as quite so biblical proportions as Thursday night is another matter but there is plenty forecast and I would urge you to keep an eye on the skies.

It looks a competitive affair (naturally) and as well as my selections in the guide I also have the David O’Meara trained TROPICAL BEAT running for me. If you remember he was the selection in my rare ante-post analysis for the Ebor back on the 14th of August. He was readily available at 25/1 back then and now sits on the much tighter price of 10/1. So far so good on the ante-post front then as he a) is actually lining up and b) he is much shorter in the market than he was when I backed him 10 days ago. In my experience it doesn’t always work out that way!!

Anyway enough of my jibber jabber, the full BDH analysis guide is available for you all to download from the following link…

>>>Free Betfred Ebor Handicap Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and remember, keep an eye ont’ weather!

NTF Fantasy Football League…

Many thanks to all of you that joined the Fantasy League last week. There is around 40 of us in it so that should be great fun to follow as the football season bobs along.

If you still want to join the league then head to http://fantasy.premierleague.com and in the ‘LEAGUES’ tab enter my code – 1170033-369849.

It’s all good fun in the NTF league but in the overall league you can win some tasty prizes. It’s all free to enter and worth a shot if your a footie fan.

Sky Bet Super-6 – £250,000 to the winner!

Did any of you come close last week?! I probably did the best I have ever done with 2 correct scorelines and 1 correct result!!

I was having a dig about the site and it turns out you can create a private league within the main game…so that’s what I have done!

All you do is sign-in to the Super 6 site, head to the ‘Leagues’ tab, click on ‘join a league’ and enter the code 2Q2M8S.

Lets see if one of us can land the main prize, but if not let’s see who is at least best at predicting the scores!

You need a SKYBET account to play the FREE Super 6 game, if you don’t have one then sign up here today.

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes Dosage & Trends Analysis

It would be ‘fair Dinkum’ if Cathy could do the business on Diamond!

It’s been a fairly quiet week for me so far on the Knavesmire but with the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes blasting into action as the centerpiece of the Friday card it’s time to get stuck in!

I have pulled together a full (and free) Dosage and Trends analysis guide for the 5f contest but before I lavish that upon you all we first have the small matter of a BDH qualifier, funnily enough also lining up in the Nunthorpe Stakes…

BDH Qualifier: 3.40 York – DINKUM DIAMOND

DD already secured us some each-way profits when running 3rd in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot but today he faces a much stiffer challenge.

What he faces today is…

5 furlongs – Tick. All 4 career wins have come over the trip.

Good to Firm ground – Tick. All 4 career wins have come on Good to Firm.

Group 1 company – He is yet to win a Group race.

Is he really up to Group 1 company? To be fair to him he did run a decent 3 3/4L 7th in this race as a 2yo in 2010 on only his 4th ever career start and has run some fine races in Group company at various points of his career. I couldn’t say confidently that he is a G1 beast in waiting but if he is ever going to win one it would be under these Good to Firm-5f conditions.

All 4 of his career wins have come on Good to Firm over 5f and his form line on G/F reads 116733113. Breaking it down further we see that on Good To Firm he has had 9 runs – 4 wins – 3 places (only 2 un-placed runs) whilst on ground that is softer than Good to Firm his record reads 15 runs – 0 wins – 6 places (9 un-placed runs); the forecast Good to Firm is very much in his favour. If we look just a touch closer we also see that in his last 14 runs he has only faced Good to Firm ground on 2 occasions, those 2 runs producing a 1st & 3rd.

To balance things up, however, when you open up my analysis guide for the race you will see he sits pretty close to the bottom of the pile, he is far from a snug fit on the trends or the Dosage. To be fair though the BDH attack line doesn’t take into account those things so I’m willing to overlook that, I’m merely pointing out that DD has a fair task on his hands.

DINKUM DIAMOND is available at mammoth odds but with him facing his much preferred 5 furlongs on his even more preferred Good To Firm and possibly/probably being drawn on the pace side (more of that in the race guide below) I think we at least need to have a a slice of him each-way. If he turns out to be not quite up to Group 1 level then so be it, however, the facts are I’m not willing to let him go un-backed at the available odds with his 2 perfect race conditions staring him slap bang in the face!

**WEATHER WARNING!!! Just as I finish writing this article I hear of biblical rain and thunderstorms falling in York!! Best we check the ground before placing the bets, must be a very serious chance of it NOT being Good to Firm come the start of the first race and hence DD NOT getting his ideal conditions…

Bloody Yorkshire weather….

As they sat in these parts, FOOK SAKE!!

Nunthorpe Stakes full Analysis…

It feels like I’ve already covered the race in detail!! But fear ye not BDH-ers I’ve so much more for you in the shape of the full BDH ‘Trosage’ guide, available for you all to download for free from the link below.

The analysis for this race does a fine job of cutting the field into a manageable chunk so hopefully the winner is at least on the shortlist (if of course it isn’t Dinkum D!!!)…

>>>Free Nunthorpe Stakes Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

**WEATHER WARNING & SIGNIFICANT GROUND CHANGE!!! This article/guide was written last night when the ground was Good to Firm. I awake this morning to find we are now faced with Good to Soft! History has told my betting bank that is a time to tread carefully and we could be in for a bit of a guessing match as to the actual conditions they will be racing on. It’s not the Good to Soft that is the problem but the rapid change from Good to Firm to Good to Soft, as already mentioned please tread carefully…

Free Guides & Updates

The National Hunt season is reaching ever closer and with that comes the resumption of NTF.

I will soon be releasing a number of FREE NTF guides to members of the FREE NTF service, similar to the ones that are currently available to new members here

If you want to receive regular updates and download an array of free guides from BDH/NTF then please visit the following page and join the growing community –

>>> Join the BDH/NTF community

On joining you will be sent a link to download a multitude of FREE GUIDES, including free horse racing tips, pointers, guides and free horse racing betting systems.

(If you are a current NTF/BDH member then you can continue with with life as normal :))

Ben (BDH)

BDH weekend review & Monday qualifier…

Time for Waking Warrior to turn into the Ultimate Warrior!!

Just a quick post from me today with a review of our weekend runners as well as my thoughts on a sneaky wee BDH qualifier that runs at Thirsk today…

BDH Weekend Runners Review…

315 Newbury – TAWHID – The ground just didn’t come in time for him and he ran as I expected. The jockeys were all reporting that after the first couple of races the ground was riding just on the fast side of good and visually, to me anyway, it didn’t look like the rain had gotten into the ground enough for our boy. As I have already mentioned we will get him at the end of the season when the rain comes, his performances on ground that isn’t ideal for him tells me there is plenty talent in there.

330 Ripon – BACCARAT – Winner! One run as a member of our squad and 1 win! We can now release him back into the wild! He was drafted in to do a job for us and that’s exactly what he did. I’m obviously not saying I won’t be backing him again in the future but for the sake of our BDH squad his job is now done and he is off the list. Good stuff Bacca, your work is much appreciated.

My value cover in the race, RODRIGO DE TORRES, ran a stormer to finish 3rd at 33/1 and landed some tasty each-way sheckles for me. Assuming the handicapper leaves him alone he looks feasibly handicapped at present and the young claimer on top is certainly a bonus.

350 Newbury – DANCE AND DANCE – He is a frustrating bugger but a frustrating bugger that will hopefully land us a decent pot before the season is out. He ‘won’ ‘his’ race but unfortunately the progressive winner was in his own race, on his own, out front. I certainly think a return to a mile will suit D&D as he did seem to have plenty in the tank as he raced for the line. 7/1 second wasn’t a bad result considering and will have rewarded any each-way backers (for the record I was not one of those).

415 Doncaster – DUNGANNON – Needed the run? Quite possibly. That was my one worry beforehand and he certainly seemed to flatten out at about the area where fitness may have become an issue. Lets hope he is back on the track within those all important 30 days…

TAWHID, DANCE AND DANCE and DUNGANNON stay in the squad. BACCARAT drops of the list with a perfect 100% record for the team. Good lad.

BDH Monday Qualifier: Waking Warrior – 3.00 Thirsk

A sneaky one for us today as we have WAKING WARRIOR in the 3.00 at Thirsk going into battle for us. Walking Warrior was highlighted by myself in a guest post I did for the Make Your Betting Pay website.

Our boy is actually still a maiden on turf after 23 runs (yikes!) but he has run plenty of solid races in defeat, including some decent performances at the track. He should have plenty speed to aim at here today and his young jockey (who is 3 wins from his last 6 rides) knows him well.

It is a competitive enough field today (for the grade) but our lad has a decent chance and on a light betting day I’m willing to take a chance on him. He is running much better than the bare form suggests and I’m confident he will break that turf duck sooner rather than later!

I may have another runner to replace the departing Baccarat once I have done a full review of the weekends action, if so I will post on here in the next couple of days.

With the York Ebor Festival rolling into action on Wednesday I will also have a couple of BDH guides available for you all here on the Blog, probably the Nunthorpe and the Ebor itself, both races I like to get stuck into.

Ben (BDH)

Will Baccarat have us Dancing & Dancing in the Great St Wilfrid?

BDH going in mob-handed in search of Saturday winners!

A busy day for us this Saturday with no less than 4 of our BDH offensive line taking up attacking duties across the length and breadth of the country. In fact it is an hour of power blitz for us with our first race at 3.15, closely followed by the 3.30, the 3.50 and finally the 4.15

So no time for dilly dallying, I’m just going to crack straight into the action and take you through our qualifiers in chronological order.

Starting at Newbury…

BDH Runner: TAWHID 3.15 Newbury

The 3yo steps out of his own age group for the first time here and although this wouldn’t be the toughest Group 2 on paper a case could probably be made for all 5 of them.

My main concern, however, is the Good to Firm ground that is forecast. I have already expressed my wish for at least Good to Soft for this lad and with that in mind I’m considering swerving him here today.

There is some rain forecast at the track but I would be surprised if it was enough to get properly into the ground. As always I will keep my eye on proceedings but as things stand I don’t think I’ll be getting involved with him here.

*Note – I’m reading conflicting going descriptions at the time of writing. It looks like it has softened to Good (from Good to Firm) so I would actually be leaning towards a bet if the softening continued. Best I can say is keep your eye on things, it’s a winnable race for him if the ground comes his way…

BDH Runner: BACCARAT 3.30 Ripon – GREAT ST WILFRID STAKES

The big sprint of the day and Ripon’s most valuable contest of the season.

It’s a large 20 runner field so I’m slightly disappointed that our BDH runner is 11/2 favourite (I would prefer a wee bit more juice in the price) but there is no doubt he is a highly progressive horse, with course and distance form, form on the *predicted* ground and a jockey that knows him well. In short I will be putting my money where my mouth is with BACCARAT.

With a large field going to post and a race that throws up some fairly strong race trends I think it’s wise to dig a bit deeper and to see if there is any value lurking a bit deeper in the pack as back-up to our boy.

Starting with, naturally, the pace angle. Before I post up the BDH pace map I did a bit of digging around in my Proform database and had a look to see if there was any normal draw bias over the 6f trip at Ripon. I know I always bang on about the draw bias coming from the pace bias but there are occasions when 1 side of the track is favourable over the other; the 6f at Ripon is potentially one of those occasions.

I wanted to look further than just where the winners of this specific race came from so I had a look at all 6f races at the track with 13 or more runners since 2007. Here is what I found…

Since the start of 2007 there has been 52 races over 6f at Ripon with 13 or more runners and only 1 of those races has been won by a horse drawn in stall 15 or above (88 have tried, making it 1/88) in fact if you go back just another 2 years the figures then read 2/157; it certainly seems the near side rail is a difficult place to win from in large fields at Ripon.

To balance that stat out, however, we should consider that the first 3 home in the 2011 renewal of this race were drawn 17-20-19. So whilst it may be hard to win from the high stalls it isn’t completely impossible. Clear? OK!

Lets get this years pace map up…

Great St WilfThe runners for this race generally split into 2 groups and DR RED EYE looks the pivotal runners here from stall 15. If he stays high then, in theory, the high numbers have a squeak, if he barrels down to the low numbers then the high stalls could be left…um…high and dry!

Even if he does stay high the low to middle stalls look to hold marginally more pace and with my previous Ripon 6f stat in mind I’m happy to concentrate on low to middle. Handily that includes our BDH runner BACCARAT; tick.

Keeping to the pace angle again recent renewals of this race have told us that it’s difficult to come from out the back to win the race. The past 15 renewals have seen 4 front-runners, 9 close to the pace runners and only 2 hold-up runners succeed. It’s not impossible to win from out the back but it’s certainly preferable to be making or sitting close to the pace. Something worth considering in the analysis. Given a good start, unlike his last run, BACCARAT should run close to the pace or at the very least midfield/close to the pace; tick.

The race trends for this handicap have been a decent pointer in recent seasons and to help us narrow the field (oh…hold on that’s my other site isn’t it!?!) I’ve applied the following set to this years runners…

1              15/15 were rated 101 or less

2              15/15 had 3+ starts in current season

3              13/15 ran within the past 21 days

4              12/15 had recorded a top 3 finish in 1 of their last 3 runs

5              12/15 had 3+ career victories

6              12/15 recorded at top 7 finish LTO

7              11/15 ran over 6f LTO

…and here is how that works out when applied to the 20 strong line-up…

Great St Wilfred Trends

BACCARAT is one of 6 that top the board with full marks 7 from 7; tick.

The only other thing we seriously need to consider is that there is heavy rain forecast for the track. Whether it arrives or not is another matter but we should probably be looking for runners with Good and softer leanings rather than Good and faster leanings.

Outwith our BDH runner SPINATRIX is a hard to pass over, he looks to have conditions in his favour and is yet to finish unplaced from 7 starts at the track, including 3 victories. I don’t really want to be loading up at the front end of the market though so I’m going to look for value elsewhere.

The same comment would probably apply to LOUIS THE PIOUS. He is in fine shape coming into this and should be there or there abouts but again I don’t really want to be loading up on the front end of the market.

For a value I’m going to look to the well handicapped RODRIGO DE TORRES. His last 3 bits of form read well and the 5lb claim from his young jockey puts him on a pretty tasty mark. He hasn’t actually raced in as many handicaps as you would think and down at this 6f trip I think there is plenty scope for him. He may also get an easy enough lead out front, if they decide to attack from the business end, and that could make him pretty dangerous.

We have BACCARAT on side through our BDH squad and from a personal angle I’m going to take RODRIGO DE TORRES into the fold for a bit of value cover. SPINATRIX and/or LOUIS THE PIOUS both look significant dangers but for now I’ll settle with BACCA and RODDY.

BDH Runner: DANCE AND DANCE 3.50 Newbury

He failed to fire with any authority at Goodwood and Ryan Moore jumps ship here…well to be fair he jumps plane as he is riding at Arlington across the pond instead of staying here and riding in good old blighty! Kieren Fallon is an able enough deputy though and I’m happy enough on that score.

It’s a strange looking race on the pace front as their doesn’t appear too much speed on the go, however Confessor drawn in the box next to D&D may well set the pace, which of course would be a bonus to our lad. If he doesn’t go on from the front it could be a tactical, straight race affair and that wouldn’t be ideal for us.

On the plus side D&D does look one of the better handicapped runners in the race with the danger(s) probably coming from the clutch of unexposed 3/4yo’s in the field.

The fact is that Dance And Dance is an attractively handicapped proposition and with that in mind I’m happy to pitch in with him here, despite the small niggle surrounding the pace.

BDH Runner: DUNGANNON 4.15 Doncaster

A 5f blitz with plenty of pace happening round about him should be just what Dungannon is after. My one query is that he has been off the track for 43 days and ideally I would have wanted him back within the month. Apart from that he looks well placed to strike.

I’m happy to have him on our side today but a below par effort won’t put me off him going forward from here. This is his first run in the BDH silks and it could be this is a bit of a tune up for a future target but with plenty of pace around him I’m loathe to leave him out of calculations today.

Phew! Quite an hour of power that!

In review we have…

315 Newbury – TAWHID – Tentatively a no bet but if Good to Firm is missing from the going description and we are heading towards Good to Soft then I’m on!

330 Ripon – BACCARAT – I’m on. Unexposed on a track he likes and plenty to like about his chances. A value alternative in RODRIGO DE TORRES to cover things for myself.

350 Newbury – DANCE AND DANCE – Given another chance after his Goodwood mis-fire. I’m on. 

415 Doncaster – DUNGANNON – Not 100% ideal conditions but has pace to aim at and talented claimer puts him on an even more tempting mark. I’m on.

No doubt it could be a Sh!t or glory day for us here but hopefully at least one of our warriors can land the money for us.

…and if that wasn’t enough to keep us entertained…

Footie season kicks off! 

OK, I know, I’m Scottish and our season kicked off a couple weeks back but the thought of playing the fantasy football leagues with the Scottish Premier Division to choose your squad from…. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Nah, you’re alright, I’ll hang fire for the proper stuff thanks!

So with that in mind, and if you haven’t already, then fire yourself over to http://fantasy.premierleague.com, pick your team and then enter it into my NTF Champions League. It’s free to enter a team and there are prizes to be won in the overall game. There are no prizes to be won by entering my own league but you do get the honour of being the winner of the NTF Champions League; some would say that is a prize money can’t buy!!

Once you have picked your team, pop along to the ‘LEAGUES’ tab and enter the following code to join my league – 1170033-369849.

All a bit of fun to keep us entertained throughout the footie season and you never know you might land some prizes along the way.

Sky Bet Super-6

Today also brings the resumption of the Sky Bet Super 6 competition.  The concept is essentially ‘guess 6 correct scores and win loadsa money!’ (and its free to enter). You just need a Skybet account and you can get cracking. If you have one then fire away, if not then sign up for one now! You don’t need to deposit any money as the Super 6 is free to play, cant say fairer than that!

The tag-line that SkyBet use for this weekly competition is ‘Predict 6 scores to win £250,000‘. For a free competition that takes about 2 minutes to enter it really is a no-brainer! I’M IN JEFF!

If you need a SkyBet account then click on the following link and get set up >>> Sky Bet sign-up

Once you have an account you will find the Super 6 details here.

I’ve never even been vaguely close to landing the main prize but that won’t stop me trying each weekend. You miss 100% of the shots you never take, as a great ice hockey player once said…

Best of luck on a busy day of BDH racing and…well…sport in general!

Ben (BDH)

Rocking to the Knavesmire Beat with an early Ebor fancy …

Is Tropical ready to Beat all-comers in the Ebor?

The 2013 York Ebor Festival rumbles into action on the Knavesmire next week and I’ll be covering a handful of the races here on the BDH Blog for your punting delights.

The highlight of the week is the Ebor itself, run on the Saturday over the stamina testing 1m6f trip. I know it’s not a straight track blitz race but it does provide some strong race trends and is a race I like getting my teeth into.

There is still a mass of entries in the valuable handicap and although I’m not a huge ante-post player (not by any stretch of the imagination) I do like taking an early look at some of the major races and, at the very least, getting my eye in on who is most likely to fit the trends.

With over a week until the tapes go up for the contest we obviously don’t yet know the draw, what the ground will be like and the pace angle (as in how the race is likely to shape up). It should also be noted that on the wider trends front there will be some horses that won’t qualify if we did the trends now but may well qualify when the trends are applied once the final field is know. Nevertheless I have taken 5 of the strongest Ebor trends from my own research and applied them to the current entries to see if anything stands out at us.

The trends I have used are…

15/15 had an OR of 102 & below

14/15 finished in the top 2 on 1 of their last 3 starts

13/15 were aged 3, 4 or 5 (other 2 were 6yo)

13/15 were (IRE) or (GB) bred

12/15 ran within the past 26 days

Surprisingly that chops the huge field down into only the following 10 ‘contenders’…

Montaser | Tropical Beat | Plinth | Duke Of Clarence | Clowance Estate | Noble Silk | Renew | Homeric | Arch Villain | Party Line

From that motley crew the one that interests me the most is the David O’Meara trained TROPICAL BEAT.

He runs off a mark of 97 here (officially 2lbs ‘well in’) and after only 11 turf starts there is plenty reason to believe he has improvement still to come. His last run at Musselburgh was his first of the season and also his first for O’Meara and it isn’t hard to think that he will come on plenty for the outing.

He has placed form at the track and over the trip, looks fairly adaptable with regards to ground (yet to face softer than Good to Soft admittedly) and handles large fields.

He has form lines that tie in with some decent animals and with the Musselburgh race likely to have gotten him cherry ripe for this he looks a value proposition at this stage. Oh yeah, his Dosage figures also sit kindly with previous winners as well.

Things may well change dramatically once I apply the full might of the BDH ‘Trosage’ machine but for now I’m pretty keen on the chances of TROPICAL BEAT.

A general 25/1 looks a fair price at this stage.

Resumption of NTF…

Yes it’s that time of the year again. The time of the year where the National Hunt big guns will be filing back into their respective National Hunt yards ready to resume full training, or at least starting to shed the summer poundage they may have accumulated over the last few months.

That also means that NTF will be starting to rev it’s engines and getting ready to burst out of it’s summer slumber!

I’ve already got an excellent guest blogger lined up for you for the start of next month and I’ll also be supplying the members of the FREE NTF list with a sprinkling of FREE NTF guides to get their National Hunt juices well and truly flowing.

If you are already a member of the free NTF service then you need do nothing more. If you’re not and you want to grab the free guides when they are ready then a quick sign up at the following page – www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/free-ntf-guides-and-e-books – is all it takes.

I can almost see that Cheltenham hill appearing on the horizon, almost…

Ben (BDH/NTF)

Steps debrief…

Steps debrief: They were crap! Next!

2nd…humph…baaah…bugger!

Hard to crab the run, he probably ran right up to the form he has shown in recent performances. Wasn’t helped by the winner veering across the pack at the 1f pole, but neither were others and we’d be hard pushed to say it stopped him winning.

He recorded his 2nd best Proform speed figure for the run, 1lb behind his best, so again we can’t knock the run too much.

The jockeys reported after the first couple of races that the ground was riding on the fast side which won’t have helped his cause and again he is left waiting for some juicy underfoot conditions to play his strongest hand.

One thing we do have to watch with the 5yo is his handicap mark. He is creeping up the weights without winning and there is a chance he slopes onto a mark he can’t win from without having picked up a decent pot in the process. I’m hoping the handicapper doesn’t touch him for this latest run and he gets to the softer ground without breaching the 100 mark. It’s a small worry but a worry nevertheless, they all have a ceiling to their abilities and we don’t want him breaking through it before conditions really come for him.

On the jockey front I certainly wouldn’t be adverse to seeing young Thomas Brown back in the saddle. He has caught my eye on a few occasions this term and his 3lb claim certainly wouldn’t go amiss, he also has winning and placed form on the horse.

I would have preferred the win on Saturday but to be fair I would have also preferred him not to have been running in the Shergar Cup!!

Hey Ho though, it’s been and gone and we roll onwards and upwards.

I’ll potentially have another addition to the squad once I’ve done a full personal review of the weekends action so stay tuned…

Ben (BDH)

Steps to secure the Shergar Cup Dash?

The Shergar Cup. Bit like Glorious (Bad)Goodwood for me I’m afraid in that I’m probably not going to get overly involved in it. To be honest it’s not a race meeting I’ve ever looked into that closely in the past but at the same time there has always been a niggling feeling in the back of my bonce that there are probably ways and means to profit from the Shergar Cup format (if anyone has any suggestions leave a comment below!).

I’m actually beginning to think that the Glorious Goodwood/Shergar Cup period is a time of the year when I should go on holiday! Not meetings that I generally play heavily in and to add to it all there has barely been a sniff of National Hunt action to fall back on!

Anyhoo we have a BDH runner stepping into battle today so let’s deal with him before I tail off onto some needless tangent…

BDH Runner – STEPS (2.05 Ascot)

As things stand he looks to have his conditions.

The bare minimum trip = Check

A track he has run well at in the past = Check

Good or softer ground = Check

He has been running extremely well in recent runs on Good to Firm ground but this Good ground is much more his cup of tea. If it drys out to firmer then his chance becomes less, if it becomes juicier underfoot his chances increase.

In truth I was more expecting to see him in a large field-valuable handicap than this 10 runner affair but I, unfortunately(!!), don’t pick his targets.

His price is also a bit skinny for my liking and the 100/30 is borderline for me. 4/1+ would be fine but 100/30 (and less in plenty of places) just makes me hesitant a bit.

On the plus side, however, we do have the excellent Jimmy Doyler in the saddle and in a race/meeting where plenty of the jockeys won’t have that much experience of the track (or indeed that much experience of British racing) his presence can only but be a positive angle.

He is also a horse in a rich vein of form and has been running extremely well despite being hindered by sub-standard draws on his last 3 starts.

In a day of little action for me I’ll put my money where my mouth is and back our boy STEPS. At the end of the day, however, I’ll be a happier bunny when Glorious Goodwood & the Shergar Cup stop trying to derail my BDH train…

Ben (BDH)