BDH Sky Bet Dash Review: Fahey 4yo still to show his full hand…

Fahey runner just needs dealt a good draw…

A quiet enough weekend for us, with only Redvers pitching into battle for us (more on him in a moment). There were, however, a couple of races of interest for me as I look to increase the BDH squad in search of more under the radar profits. Before I give you the newest member of the squad let’s first deal with Saturday’s warrior…

Saturday’s BDH runners: Redvers

Ahh, Redvers… Redvers, Redvers, Redvers… what to do with Redvers…

First up was he drawn on the wrong side? After review of the race I would say no. Although the field split into 2 distinct groups I don’t think any side had a huge advantage over the other, the way the field finished would back that up.

Did he meet trouble in-running? Personally I would say yes and it was just as he was hitting full stride. Hughes got the gaps alright, the horse started clicking through the gears alright, but at a vital moment 3rd placed finisher Loving Spirit decided to shift and park himself directly in Redvers lane (watch the replay, it’s quite noticeable). The effect of this was that Hughes had to take a pull (albeit a small pull) and then restart his mounts forward momentum and challenge all over again…except there was no time to restart his forward momentum and challenge. There wasn’t much in it but in a race of spit second actions and decisions it was probably enough. In fact I’m sure Hughes eased up a touch once he new his chance was gone (which is fair enough…to be fair!).

So does Redvers stay in the BDH squad? For now, yes he does. The ‘problem’ with Redvers is that his running style is always likely to cause him potential traffic issues, he comes from out the back and he comes late, that in itself brings potential traffic jams. Ideally his 5 length defeat will be enough to drop him a pound or 2 from the nice Mr Handicapper, although that may be a bit of wishful thinking from myself!

For now Redvers stays in the BDH troop.

Now time to add another warrior to our squad…

BDH Review…

Race in focus: 3.30 York (27-07-2013): Sky Bet Dash – 6f, Class 2 Handicap (20 ran)

How the race played out…

Sky Bet Dash

 

Pace wise this race played out a bit on the strange side, especially with the front-running BOGART depositing his jockey on the turf (saddle slipped) at the 2 furlong pole. It seemed that the field formed a bit of a fragmented large group for most of the race although on closer inspection it was the middle to high numbers that had formed the sturdier group, with the low numbers having their own mini battle in a sub group just off the bulk of the field. BOGART was the main front runner of the pack and until his saddle incident he was the one that was pulling most of the field along. From the low numbers it was PRODIGALITY & FAST SHOT that attempted to stamp their authority on the contest although they never quite got the lead they wanted. The pace map tells us that it was those from middle to high that dominated the finish, even though they actually ended up drifting across the track in the final furlong and ending up fighting the finish out in the lanes of the low numbers. Regardless of this it still suggests there was an advantage following the BOGART side of the field (middle to high) rather than the PRODIGALITY/FAST SHOT side of the field (low).

It was a wee bit of a pace muddle in truth but we can still take positives and negatives from the outcome.

The end result…

Winner TROPICS sat in the middle of the pack and made his winning move in the final couple of furlongs. He has been progressing well this term and was probably still handily handicapped for this contest but I have a small suspicion that the next weight rise will be the one that anchor’s him; he probably didn’t have all that much in hand at the finish. Second placed SUMMERINTHECITY put in a fine shift and should be on a mark he can win, or at least get close, from; a bit of juice in the ground won’t go amiss for him. KHUBALA did well to finish 3rd as he met trouble in-running at a vital time. There is every suggestion he is still on the up and would remain of some sort of interest. Fourth placed PRODIGALITY found himself a bit isolated and is probably better with cover, he is possibly just at the top of his handicap ceiling as well, with that in mind this was a solid run. TAROOQ was hampered slightly 2f out but I don’t think he would have necessarily finished much closer than he did. He is clearly much better on the A/W than the turf (8 A/W wins compared to 1 turf win) but he is a massive 20lbs lower on turf than A/W and one feels there has to be a turf race in him off that mark somewhere. Things really didn’t go to plan for 6th placed BACCARAT. He missed the break and was on the back hoof for most of the first 3 or 4 furlongs. Paul Hanagan did manage to coax him back into the contest but he was then hampered by the tumbling Amy Ryan (Bogart’s jockey) and despite finishing like a train his mishaps pretty much cost him any better than 6th place. Despite everything it was still a noteworthy run and fully suggested there is still more than enough to come from his current mark.

BDH(s) to follow…

BACCARAT (6th) (R Fahey)

Quite simply things did not pan out for this improving 4yo. Stall 5 wasn’t a great draw, as the pace map tells us, and the fact he missed the break just made it all the more difficult for him. Despite Hanagan working him back into the race he didn’t really have that much to hook onto the back of so the fast finishing effort deserves marking up a touch, in my opinion anyway. The interference he suffered also put a rather big, Amy Ryan shaped, spanner in the works and in the end a 3.5L defeat was a pretty good result.

From a handicapping viewpoint there really does look like there is plenty more still to come from his mark of 94 and I can’t believe for one minute that this is his limit. At a rough estimation we are probably looking at a 100 rated horse, at least.

It’s hard to assess if it was the missed break or the generous early pace that left him floundering out the back (probably 75% break – 25% 6f pace) but I do feel a step back up to 7 furlong would not go amiss, there is plenty enough stamina there and he does already have form over the longer trip.

This would be the 2nd race in a row that he has been dealt a poor hand by the draw dealers, admittedly it was worse in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, and I really feel he is a potent weapon waiting to strike from a handy draw. With only 7 career starts to his name there still looks plenty more to come this son of Dutch Art.

Conditions – I’m looking for 7 furlongs as an ideal but 6 furlongs would be perfectly adequate. He seems to cope well with the Good & Good to Firm ground so hopefully it stays dry for a bit longer.

He is stacking up some decent form lines, is in form and his mark looks well within his range, he is an improving 4yo I’m very happy to add to our squad.

Baccarat now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

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7 thoughts on “BDH Sky Bet Dash Review: Fahey 4yo still to show his full hand…

  1. I think (or hope) that you forgot to say how relieved you are that Amy Ryan survived her fall relatively unscathed otherwise your comments seem rather callous!

    • Brian

      I didn’t forget to mention it but clearly I’m not a someone who wishes ill upon others or who enjoys other peoples misfortunes (I leave that to the numerous Twitter morons of the world).

      I would have thought it was obvious to everyone who either reads BDH or NTF that I’m as happy as any racing fan that the jockey came out of the fall unscathed. I don’t feel the need to have to mention what is an obvious feeling.

      Ben (NTF)

  2. couldnt agree more Ben, for what it is worth!, Think it is safe to assume that you were glad Amy Ryan got up to her feet, as we all were. – I think he did really well considering – he almost came to a shuddering stop when trying to get round AR, and to stoke him up again and to fly as he did near the end indicates the next 2/3 races should be interesting.

    Need to do a bit of research – but would be interested to see what PH strike rate when riding for his ex boss is now that he is no longer stable jockey – I dont think Fahey puts him up on horses without a chance

    • Thanks Josh

      Interesting point re Hanagan and Fahey since the ‘split’.

      Stats for past 2 years combined are about what you would expect – 14% S/R and winning pretty much what the market suggests.

      2013 alone also brings a 14% S/R.

      Essentially it’s the same as before (give or take) but just about half the number of rides.

      Interestingly Tony Hamilton has a decent record on Baccarat so if he is in the plate I wouldn’t be put off at all.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  3. I too was with BACCARAT on Saturday and I’m still convinced bar for the Amy Ryan incident this horse would have been pretty much have got up near the line to win.

  4. Pingback: Badly Drawn Horse: Soft Steps to future profits… | Horse Racing Ireland

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