We had a bit of ‘down time’ last weekend on the flat with no BDH runners and indeed no real races of interest for us at all. We are back in action this weekend, however, as we send one of our BDH troops into battle for us at Ascot.
Let’s crack on with things and fire straight into our BDH qualifier…
CASH OUT MULTIPLES ONLY ON BETFAIR INTERNATIONAL (Heritage Handicap)
A snappy race title if ever I saw one?! Hopefully we will be cashing ‘in’ over the straight 7 furlongs with our BDH qualifier REDVERS.
The pace angle in this race isn’t overly obvious but from my pace map analysis I think we are just about looking at the pace coming from the middle stalls.
Here is the COMOOB International (that’s much catchier!) pace map for your perusal…
As you can see there is no obvious front-runner is this large pack but the pace map does suggest that it will be one of Es Que Love, The Confessor or Trail Blaze (aptly named!) that is likely to try and set the pace. Glen Moss or Galician may try and pull the field along from up top but they are not exactly confirmed front-runners and I’m happy to stick with my initial assessment of the pace coming down the middle.
If we look at last years renewal we see that the vast majority of the field bunched together in one big group down the middle, in fact only 2 (+ 1 who completely missed the break) stayed apart from the main pack. In 2011 they also bunched together in one group down the middle. Based on the info we have at hand for this renewal it could well be another contest where they bunch up down the middle.
So how will that effect REDVERS?
Our boy is drawn in stall 4. Not totally ideal, I admit, but he should be able to latch on to the middle group early and all being well he will swoop late down the outside to nab the prize. He is drawn near enough potential pace angle TRAIL BLAZE to get a decent tow into the race so that is certainly a positive.
I also had a quick squint at the trends for this contest , using the previous 15 renewals, and to help us in our search for the winner applied the following 3 to the numbersome (I may have made that word up) field…
13/15 were aged 4 or 5
12/15 had previously won at the distance
10/15 finished in the top 7 LTO
That chops the field down to a more manageable 10 and most importantly includes our lad REDVERS.
Richard Hughes gets the leg up on REDVERS for the first time today and that in itself is very interesting. He doesn’t ride that often for Ed Vaughan so has the trainer actively made sure he secured the services of the champion jockey with this race the horse’s main target? Hughes, after all, has won 2 of the last 3 renewals of this race. In fact his record in this race in the past 7 renewals is a rather fetching 1713053.
There is plenty of 14-1 floating about for REDVERS at the minute and at those odds I’m more than happy to be on. You don’t need me to tell you this is a bloody hard race to win but we have plenty in our favour and at those odds the gains waaay outweigh the risks.
It would be rude of me to not also mention a previous BDH warrior FIELD OF DREAM, who also lines up in this as he seeks to win the race twice on the bounce. He is higher in the weights this time around, marginally, but you can’t deny he comes here in fine fettle. REDVERS is 3lbs better off with him than when they met in the Bunbury Cup last time out and I have a feeling that may just be enough to turn the form around, especially if we consider REDVERS may well have gotten much closer with a clearer passage. It’s tempting to pitch in again with FOD but I’ve had my profit from him for now and this looks a tougher assignment. If his price starts to get silly I may have a dabble but right now I’m happy to side with REDVERS and leave it at that. If FOD wins without my money on then so be it, I won’t shed a tear, he owes me nothing.
Best of luck if you are getting involved and lets hope REDVERS and Hughesie can land the COMOOB International booty for us!!
All being well there should be a couple of our warriors doing battle for us at Glorious Goodwood next week, remember and tune in…