Darley July Cup: Dosage & Trends Analysis

A couple of races of interest for us tomorrow (Saturday) at Newmarket on the July course.

The highlight on a busy days racing is the Darley July Cup at Newmarket and that gives us an opportunity to open up the Dosage & Trends analyzer and fire the race through the ‘Trosage’ machine (I just made that up, I’ll see if it catches on…). Also at Newmarket we have a dual BDH assault on the ever tricky and competitive 32Red Bunbury Cup.

So lets crack on…

Bunbury Cup… 

We get 2 bites at the Bunbury cherry with both REDVERS and FIELD OF DREAM going to war for us from the BDH list.

The pace angle in this race doesn’t look too obvious but the pace map just suggests, and I would very much emphasis the just, that it may be the middle to high stalls that have an advantage. Both our warriors are drawn high so it may well be a good thing that we have both our eggs in one basket, however, Field Of Dream is stuck in the 20 box and that would make life very difficult should the pace actually end up low..

Here is the Bunbury Cup pace map for your perusal….

2013 Bunbury Cup

As you can see there really isn’t that much in the way of out and out front-runners here so it is a bit of a guessing game with regards to the pace, I guess there is every chance our 2 are caught on the wrong side of it, although hopefully not and my initial assessment of a high pace bias is correct.

I also had a look at the trends for this race but in my opinion it isn’t really a strong race for the angle and not one that I would personally get stuck into in that regard. However, I did in the end plump with the following 4 to give us just another little angle into the race…

15/16 had at least 1 previous victory over 6f

14/16 ran over 7f or 8f LTO

12/16 had only 1 start in the past 30 days

10/16 were (IRE) bred

That does actually cut the race down a fair bit and of the clutch that are left REDVERS is one of them. FIELD OF DREAM only fails on 1 of them so I’m not overly concerned on that score.

Both look to have conditions in their favour and at the prices – FIELD OF DREAM 11-1, REDVERS 14/1 – I’m happy to have them both on my side.

Even if they don’t fire today they won’t be dropping off the to follow list, there is every chance it will be a messy race, especially as there seems to be no clear cut pace angle.

Now onto the big race of the day; The Darley July Cup.

Darley July Cup Analysis…

It looks an enthralling renewal of this Group 1 and they are sure to scorch down the 6f track in the lightning fast conditions.

The analysis for this race does a fine job of cutting the field into a manageable chunk so hopefully the winner is on the shortlist…

>>>Free Darley July Cup Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

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Ben (BDH)

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17 thoughts on “Darley July Cup: Dosage & Trends Analysis

  1. SHORTLISTED RUNNERS BDH DARLEY JULY CUP

    VDW ANALYSIS 4 RUNNERS – Shea Shea 1st Lethal Force 2nd Gale Force Ten & Zanetta 3rd.

    Shea Shea @ 4/1 Paddy Power Offer if 2nd.

    Anyway thats my thaughts good look to everyone.

    • Hi Jeff

      Have to agree that Shea Shea is a big danger to all, no surprise if he is the one that comes out on top. One worry though would be he has (as far as I can see) never raced on ground this quick. Doesn’t mean he won’t handle it but never overly comfortable backing a horse to do something on ground it has never faced before against strong runners that have proven they can do it on the ground. A small niggle but a niggle all the same.

      Cheets – Ben (BDH)

  2. well domne ben, on fire! what an angle this is proving to be. lethal force topped off the afternoon, i backed him at ascot and was not deserting him now, comfortable victory – the ease of which helped by some strange riding in behind! one of my most profitable afternoons for a while!

  3. Outstanding analysis once again but I went for Sole Power (never failed me) and Shea Shea – ok A risk I now regret. However Field of Dreams – great stuff once again – it’s those special angles that I really like: Problema Tic, Yorke Glory, Dr Parkes – so clever and so satisfying!

    Cheers Ben

  4. well done Ben on the field of dreams and redvers i done both to place and win,also i had dance and dance in my book,and i was gonna do tricast and rfc on all three i didn’t,but i would of cried as i do think one would of the forcast would of happened if not for the interference,dance and dance and redvers are on my radar now,dance and dance on his last run at a mile on good to soft was hampered so 2 unlucky runs on that, anyway thanks again ben great work on both races lethal force i mugged myself again as i only concentrated field of dreams race,i must do something about my reading and slowing down on it,but we have had 3 out of 3 as i didn’t do duke of firenze, so all good stuff regards jules

    • Thanks Jules.

      Think you will be pleased with the new post that I just stuck up today 🙂

      My advice for busy days like Saturday would be to just concentrate on one meeting or a couple of races. Too much can scramble your brain! (I’ve been there in the past!!).

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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