BDH Update: Is the Duke ready to Fire?

Will Ryan Moore find the gaps?

Another quick update for you today guys as another BDH runner heads into battle.

First of all though a big thanks for all the comments regarding Doctor Parkes’ win yesterday. Fantastic to see so many of you on board and collecting the spoils.

Now onto today’s task in hand…

BDH runner: 2:05 Sandown – DUKE OF FIRENZE

Ahh the Duke… what to do with the Duke…

I must say it’s not as straight forward a task as the good doctor yesterday. I did mention in my notes that I think he is a graded beast…and this is a graded contest…however, I was thinking more along the lines of the big 16+ runner sprints such as the July Cup and races of such ilk. An 8 runner contest at Sandown poses a slightly different conundrum.

For starters we know he needs a strong pace to come hard and fast off the back of, so lets look at the pace map and see if there is potential for plenty of speed….

Sandown Sprint Stakes

That does give us a bit of hope. Three potential front-runners and 2 others sitting in-behind suggests there may well be plenty of pace on the go here.

My main concern really is that a flying 5 furlongs at Sandown generally plays to the hands of those up with the pace or making the pace, the ones coming from behind can often come unstuck (the stats do back this up).

I’m very much in 2 minds about how this race will suit Duke Of Firenze. On one hand he has a good draw and should get a decent pace to aim at but on the other hand it is not a track that really suits horses flying hard and fast from out the back…hmmm…

My thought is to take a punt on him at around the 6-1 mark but at reduced stakes. Now I generally don’t play about with my stakes unless the situation really suggest that I do… today the situation suggests I reduce my stakes!

I think there will be better opportunities for this lad as the season progresses but there is the potential for the race to fall into his lap, especially if the 3 potential pace-setters go hammer and tong at it up front, and as such I want a bit on him in case that situation does arise, especially as we can get around 6-1 on the exchanges and with a couple of other firms.

Am I as confident as I was about Doctor Parkes? Not at all. Do I think there is more to come from this horse? Most certainly. Will he get the fast pace needed? I’m hopeful.

At the very least today will be a good test for him and hopefully a decent indicator of does he just have another valuable handicap in him or whether he can indeed take the step up the ladder to Graded level….

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)

 

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10 thoughts on “BDH Update: Is the Duke ready to Fire?

  1. Ben, I think you have summed it up perfectly as for myself I have split my stake between Duke Of Firenze and Tickled Pink who has a good draw and ground is perfect and the winner should come from one of them. Well done with Doctor Parkes yesterday.

    • Hi Eamon

      Yes Tickled Pink will most certainly enjoy the ground. Bit of a muddling race to be fair, split stakes not a bad option.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  2. Hi Ben,

    I’ve had nice wins on your last two winners but I’m very sweet on Tickled Pink today!

    I’m very hopefull of a big run from Light Up My Life today,she is better off at the weights with those that finished in front of her at Ascot, the one exception is the fav, Nargys. I think the stiff finish will suit Light Up MY life.

    Regards

    Dan

    • Hi Dan

      Ground very much in favour of T Pink, would expect her to at least be in the shake-up.

      Have not looked at the Coral Distaff in any detail so can’t comment but best of luck with LUML, will cheer her on for you.

      Ben (BDH)

  3. after yesterdays fantastic day I will go a bet at small stakes ( my worry is tickled pink ) so a dutch for me Thanks once again for yesterday I had the Doc an Bondi Beach Boy in a LUVERLY DOUBLE
    Regards Alan

    • Alan

      Cracking double yesterday for you, great stuff.

      Not as straight forward at all today for the DUKE, again I cant put you off covering with another runner.

      Best of luck mate – Ben (BDH)

  4. Ben

    Many congratulations on yesterday – the race panned out just as planned and he won well – never in any doubt. I managed to get a 9-1 on Betfair so delighted. I, too, fancy Tickled Pink in the Sandown sprint – but will have a little exacta with the Duke too.

    Tony N

    • Thanks Tony

      Race most certainly went to plan yesterday, always good when it plays out that way.

      Seems there is plenty liking a bit of Tickled Pink, can fully see why as well.

      Best of luck – Ben (BDH)

  5. i think i will leave race alone due to number of runners,i do think bungle is worth trading in running as his odds will tumble from after 2 furlongs then trade out,

    • I must admit I would rather have a bigger field to play with as well.

      Would expect Bungle to be firing away and be one of those that is setting a fair speed up front.

      Ben (BDH)

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