BDH Sky Bet Dash Review: Fahey 4yo still to show his full hand…

Fahey runner just needs dealt a good draw…

A quiet enough weekend for us, with only Redvers pitching into battle for us (more on him in a moment). There were, however, a couple of races of interest for me as I look to increase the BDH squad in search of more under the radar profits. Before I give you the newest member of the squad let’s first deal with Saturday’s warrior…

Saturday’s BDH runners: Redvers

Ahh, Redvers… Redvers, Redvers, Redvers… what to do with Redvers…

First up was he drawn on the wrong side? After review of the race I would say no. Although the field split into 2 distinct groups I don’t think any side had a huge advantage over the other, the way the field finished would back that up.

Did he meet trouble in-running? Personally I would say yes and it was just as he was hitting full stride. Hughes got the gaps alright, the horse started clicking through the gears alright, but at a vital moment 3rd placed finisher Loving Spirit decided to shift and park himself directly in Redvers lane (watch the replay, it’s quite noticeable). The effect of this was that Hughes had to take a pull (albeit a small pull) and then restart his mounts forward momentum and challenge all over again…except there was no time to restart his forward momentum and challenge. There wasn’t much in it but in a race of spit second actions and decisions it was probably enough. In fact I’m sure Hughes eased up a touch once he new his chance was gone (which is fair enough…to be fair!).

So does Redvers stay in the BDH squad? For now, yes he does. The ‘problem’ with Redvers is that his running style is always likely to cause him potential traffic issues, he comes from out the back and he comes late, that in itself brings potential traffic jams. Ideally his 5 length defeat will be enough to drop him a pound or 2 from the nice Mr Handicapper, although that may be a bit of wishful thinking from myself!

For now Redvers stays in the BDH troop.

Now time to add another warrior to our squad…

BDH Review…

Race in focus: 3.30 York (27-07-2013): Sky Bet Dash – 6f, Class 2 Handicap (20 ran)

How the race played out…

Sky Bet Dash

 

Pace wise this race played out a bit on the strange side, especially with the front-running BOGART depositing his jockey on the turf (saddle slipped) at the 2 furlong pole. It seemed that the field formed a bit of a fragmented large group for most of the race although on closer inspection it was the middle to high numbers that had formed the sturdier group, with the low numbers having their own mini battle in a sub group just off the bulk of the field. BOGART was the main front runner of the pack and until his saddle incident he was the one that was pulling most of the field along. From the low numbers it was PRODIGALITY & FAST SHOT that attempted to stamp their authority on the contest although they never quite got the lead they wanted. The pace map tells us that it was those from middle to high that dominated the finish, even though they actually ended up drifting across the track in the final furlong and ending up fighting the finish out in the lanes of the low numbers. Regardless of this it still suggests there was an advantage following the BOGART side of the field (middle to high) rather than the PRODIGALITY/FAST SHOT side of the field (low).

It was a wee bit of a pace muddle in truth but we can still take positives and negatives from the outcome.

The end result…

Winner TROPICS sat in the middle of the pack and made his winning move in the final couple of furlongs. He has been progressing well this term and was probably still handily handicapped for this contest but I have a small suspicion that the next weight rise will be the one that anchor’s him; he probably didn’t have all that much in hand at the finish. Second placed SUMMERINTHECITY put in a fine shift and should be on a mark he can win, or at least get close, from; a bit of juice in the ground won’t go amiss for him. KHUBALA did well to finish 3rd as he met trouble in-running at a vital time. There is every suggestion he is still on the up and would remain of some sort of interest. Fourth placed PRODIGALITY found himself a bit isolated and is probably better with cover, he is possibly just at the top of his handicap ceiling as well, with that in mind this was a solid run. TAROOQ was hampered slightly 2f out but I don’t think he would have necessarily finished much closer than he did. He is clearly much better on the A/W than the turf (8 A/W wins compared to 1 turf win) but he is a massive 20lbs lower on turf than A/W and one feels there has to be a turf race in him off that mark somewhere. Things really didn’t go to plan for 6th placed BACCARAT. He missed the break and was on the back hoof for most of the first 3 or 4 furlongs. Paul Hanagan did manage to coax him back into the contest but he was then hampered by the tumbling Amy Ryan (Bogart’s jockey) and despite finishing like a train his mishaps pretty much cost him any better than 6th place. Despite everything it was still a noteworthy run and fully suggested there is still more than enough to come from his current mark.

BDH(s) to follow…

BACCARAT (6th) (R Fahey)

Quite simply things did not pan out for this improving 4yo. Stall 5 wasn’t a great draw, as the pace map tells us, and the fact he missed the break just made it all the more difficult for him. Despite Hanagan working him back into the race he didn’t really have that much to hook onto the back of so the fast finishing effort deserves marking up a touch, in my opinion anyway. The interference he suffered also put a rather big, Amy Ryan shaped, spanner in the works and in the end a 3.5L defeat was a pretty good result.

From a handicapping viewpoint there really does look like there is plenty more still to come from his mark of 94 and I can’t believe for one minute that this is his limit. At a rough estimation we are probably looking at a 100 rated horse, at least.

It’s hard to assess if it was the missed break or the generous early pace that left him floundering out the back (probably 75% break – 25% 6f pace) but I do feel a step back up to 7 furlong would not go amiss, there is plenty enough stamina there and he does already have form over the longer trip.

This would be the 2nd race in a row that he has been dealt a poor hand by the draw dealers, admittedly it was worse in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, and I really feel he is a potent weapon waiting to strike from a handy draw. With only 7 career starts to his name there still looks plenty more to come this son of Dutch Art.

Conditions – I’m looking for 7 furlongs as an ideal but 6 furlongs would be perfectly adequate. He seems to cope well with the Good & Good to Firm ground so hopefully it stays dry for a bit longer.

He is stacking up some decent form lines, is in form and his mark looks well within his range, he is an improving 4yo I’m very happy to add to our squad.

Baccarat now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

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Redvers looking to cash ‘in’ at Ascot…

We had a bit of ‘down time’ last weekend on the flat with no BDH runners and indeed no real races of interest for us at all. We are back in action this weekend, however, as we send one of our BDH troops into battle for us at Ascot.

Let’s crack on with things and fire straight into our BDH qualifier…

CASH OUT MULTIPLES ONLY ON BETFAIR INTERNATIONAL (Heritage Handicap)

A snappy race title if ever I saw one?! Hopefully we will be cashing ‘in’ over the straight 7 furlongs with our BDH qualifier REDVERS.

The pace angle in this race isn’t overly obvious but from my pace map analysis I think we are just about looking at the pace coming from the middle stalls.

Here is the COMOOB International (that’s much catchier!) pace map for your perusal…

Coomob International - Asc 26-07

As you can see there is no obvious front-runner is this large pack but the pace map does suggest that it will be one of Es Que Love, The Confessor or Trail Blaze (aptly named!) that is likely to try and set the pace. Glen Moss or Galician may try and pull the field along from up top but they are not exactly confirmed front-runners and I’m happy to stick with my initial assessment of the pace coming down the middle.

If we look at last years renewal we see that the vast majority of the field bunched together in one big group down the middle, in fact only 2 (+ 1 who completely missed the break) stayed apart from the main pack. In 2011 they also bunched together in one group down the middle. Based on the info we have at hand for this renewal it could well be another contest where they bunch up down the middle.

So how will that effect REDVERS?

Our boy is drawn in stall 4. Not totally ideal, I admit, but he should be able to latch on to the middle group early and all being well he will swoop late down the outside to nab the prize. He is drawn near enough potential pace angle TRAIL BLAZE to get a decent tow into the race so that is certainly a positive.

I also had a quick squint at the trends for this contest , using the previous 15 renewals, and to help us in our search for the winner applied the following 3 to the numbersome (I may have made that word up) field…

13/15 were aged 4 or 5

12/15 had previously won at the distance

10/15 finished in the top 7 LTO

That chops the field down to a more manageable 10 and most importantly includes our lad REDVERS.

Richard Hughes gets the leg up on REDVERS for the first time today and that in itself is very interesting. He doesn’t ride that often for Ed Vaughan so has the trainer actively made sure he secured the services of the champion jockey with this race the horse’s main target? Hughes, after all, has won 2 of the last 3 renewals of this race. In fact his record in this race in the past 7 renewals is a rather fetching 1713053.

There is plenty of 14-1 floating about for REDVERS at the minute and at those odds I’m more than happy to be on. You don’t need me to tell you this is a bloody hard race to win but we have plenty in our favour and at those odds the gains waaay outweigh the risks.

It would be rude of me to not also mention a previous BDH warrior FIELD OF DREAM, who also lines up in this as he seeks to win the race twice on the bounce. He is higher in the weights this time around, marginally, but you can’t deny he comes here in fine fettle. REDVERS is 3lbs better off with him than when they met in the Bunbury Cup last time out and I have a feeling that may just be enough to turn the form around, especially if we consider REDVERS may well have gotten much closer with a clearer passage. It’s tempting to pitch in again with FOD but I’ve had my profit from him for now and this looks a tougher assignment. If his price starts to get silly I may have a dabble but right now I’m happy to side with REDVERS and leave it at that. If FOD wins without my money on then so be it, I won’t shed a tear, he owes me nothing.

Best of luck if you are getting involved and lets hope REDVERS and Hughesie can land the COMOOB International booty for us!!

All being well there should be a couple of our warriors doing battle for us at Glorious Goodwood next week, remember and tune in…

Ben (BDH)

BDH Bunbury Cup Review: Dance our way to future BDH profits…

I spent Saturday watching the racing with Titchmarsh in B&Q!!

Well it was quite a weekend on the BDH front! Today I will be adding another horse to our BDH war chest but before that I just want to tidy up the loose ends from the weekends racing.

Starting with…

Saturday’s 2 BDH runners: Redvers & Field of Dream

We went into the 19 runner Bunbury Cup with a two-pronged attack and came out with our pockets bulging with profits!

With FIELD OF DREAM it was a case of job done, money in the bank, thank you very much, lovely jubbly! Jamie Osborne’s 6yo fired in at 14-1 (21.61 BFSP!) for us and us such is now off the BDH list. As always that doesn’t mean I won’t back him if the situation dictates in the future, but for the purposes of our BDH war chest he has done his time and his services are no longer required. Fine effort Field of Dream, good lad.

REDVERS, on the other hand, remains on the list. He put in a big effort to finish a strong closing 5th and he did extremely well to get so close as he had to pick his way through the densest part of the pack. He looks in rude health and his time will surely come soon.

Darley July Cup

The celebrations were only just dying down when we were out of our seats again (or in my case running round B&Q getting some very strange looks!!) cheering home the winner of the July Cup, LETHAL FORCE, at 9/2 (7.22 BFSP).

It was a superb performance from Clive Cox’s sprinter and as I said in my guide he was probably going to get an easy lead and that was going to make him very dangerous indeed. It was a strong performance, beating confirmed Grade 1 animals, and there is nothing to suggest he can’t add more G1’s to his tally going forward.

BDH Review…

As enjoyable as Saturday’s shenanigans were there is no point resting on our laurels, so lets crack on with the meat of today’s post and go in search of our next BDH warrior!

Race in focus: 3.15 Newmarket (12-07-2013): Bunbury Cup – 7f, Class 2 Heritage Handicap (19 ran)

How the race played out…

BUNBURY CUP REVIEW

The field split into 3 groups from the off with 4 staying high and 4 staying low, with the bulk of the pack staying down the middle lane. The low group and middle group started to merge around the halfway point but the top 4 remained steadfast to their far side rail for most of the contest. As the pace map tells us it was this top 4 breakaway group that held the pace advantage, so much so they filled the first 3 positions at the finish; it was a strong pace bias at play. REDVERS can maybe count himself a bit unlucky as he was right on the cusp of the top 4 in stall 15 but jockey Neil Callan made the early decision to hook down onto the back of the main group. It was probably a decision that ended up costing him at least a place, however it’s not a decision that you can knock him over as he set his stall out early and stuck to his guns. BURWAAZ set a decent enough clip for the middle group but he clearly wasn’t going the same pace as I’M SO GLAD up the top end who had ES QUE LOVE right on his tail, pushing him along and keeping him honest. Down the bottom end it was up to HIGHLAND COLORI to set the fractions but one feels he was always just having to be kept up to his work and probably would have preferred a bit of company to help him set the pace. All in all this was a race dominated by the high numbers and again goes to show that you don’t necessarily need a large group to set a strong pace.

The end result…

The winner FIELD OF DREAM was able to sit in-behind the 2 pace pushers in front of him and hook onto the strong pace they were setting. A gap also opened up between the 2 of them in the final furlong and jockey Adam Kirby sensibly fired his mount through the gap, giving his horse the added impetus to go on and win the race. He was on a decent mark coming into this and was also in decent form, in winning this he equaled his career best RPR figure. Second home ES QUE LOVE put in a sterling effort here and he also equaled his career best RPR mark with this performance. He is starting to creep back up the handicap so that would be my worry for him going forward from here, you want him hitting the mark sooner rather than later, before his mark becomes really difficult to win from. Third placed I’M SO GLAD possibly paid the price for setting the strong pace up top but this was a decent effort and he is on a mark he can win from, probably at a slightly lower level. Fourth home DANCE AND DANCE was, in my opinion, very unlucky in-running. He didn’t break ideally from the stalls and also got bumped a little, meaning he was just caught on the hop for a few strides. Ryan Moore then went to make a forward move around the 2 furlong pole but had to switch left for room, room that didn’t come instantly and his run had to be checked. When that path was blocked he had to switch back right again and when a gap did appear in front of him he fairly powered home. He was the first home outwith the top group and there is every reason to believe he would have been much closer than 2.5 lengths down had it not been for interference; his draw and poor start clearly hindered him. Fifth home REDVERS was another that was a tad unlucky. Like Dance And Dance he had to work his way through the thickest part of the field and once daylight appeared he blasted home. HIGHLAND COLORI was the best home in 6th of the low drawn group and this was a solid run on a track he likes and ground he loves. My feeling is that he needs a bit of respite from the handicapper before we see him winning again though.

The bare facts are that this was very much a race to be drawn high. The low numbers were probably the most inconvenienced although the middle group would also be classed as ‘poorly drawn’ by myself.

BDH(s) to follow…

DANCE AND DANCE (4th) (E Vaughan)

The 7yo blasted home after having a less than ideal passage through the race and once Ryan Moore was able to get him properly  into top gear he sprouted wings. This was a clear indicator to me that a) he is rediscovering his form and b) he is on a bloody handy handicap mark! 

From a handicapping perspective we have to remember that he has won a competitive Epsom handicap off OR97 and finished very close in high class handicaps at Ascot (off OR102) and Goodwood (off OR110); he is currently on OR94. That’s 3lb lower than his highest winning mark and 16lbs LOWER than when finishing a very close 5th at Goodwood in the 2011 Totesport Mile handicap. Since that time he has ran well in numerous Group races, including Group 1 races. There is plenty about him that shouts ‘Well Handicapped’ and ‘Ready to Win’.

He has had numerous pilots throughout his career although for me Ryan Moore (Saturday’s jockey) looks the perfect foil. The horse loves to come with a rattle from right out the back and Moore is the perfect jockey to stoke him up and get him motoring. For the record the pairing have a tasty 1224 record together.

In general he is a fairly adaptable horse with regards to most race conditions although it may just be over the 8f trip that we really see him at his best; his best RPR figures and Proform speed figures have all been gained over 8 furlongs.

Interestingly he is entered in the Betfred Mile at this years Glorious Goodwood Festival, to me that looks an extremely viable and sensible target.

Conditions – I think it’s simply with this lad. He is on a very winnable handicap mark and connections know where he performs at his best. Ideally we want him in 1 mile races although 7 furlongs will also suit. Ryan Moore, again, would be ideal in the saddle although I won’t be put off by other jockeys. 

He is in form and on a good mark and looks primed to strike very soon.

DANCE AND DANCE now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

A day out at Beverley…

I’m off to Beverley tomorrow to watch my horse (horse I have a share in would be more accurate!!)  TRENDING run in the 5.35 race. My good friend Tony McCormick (@TonyMacRacing on Twitter) is also sponsoring a race on the card (the 3.30) so I’m also there to support him as well/have a few drinks.

If you happen to be at the track come along and say hello, don’t ask for any tips though, I don’t plan on studying any of the races!

Cheers – Ben (BDH)

Darley July Cup: Dosage & Trends Analysis

A couple of races of interest for us tomorrow (Saturday) at Newmarket on the July course.

The highlight on a busy days racing is the Darley July Cup at Newmarket and that gives us an opportunity to open up the Dosage & Trends analyzer and fire the race through the ‘Trosage’ machine (I just made that up, I’ll see if it catches on…). Also at Newmarket we have a dual BDH assault on the ever tricky and competitive 32Red Bunbury Cup.

So lets crack on…

Bunbury Cup… 

We get 2 bites at the Bunbury cherry with both REDVERS and FIELD OF DREAM going to war for us from the BDH list.

The pace angle in this race doesn’t look too obvious but the pace map just suggests, and I would very much emphasis the just, that it may be the middle to high stalls that have an advantage. Both our warriors are drawn high so it may well be a good thing that we have both our eggs in one basket, however, Field Of Dream is stuck in the 20 box and that would make life very difficult should the pace actually end up low..

Here is the Bunbury Cup pace map for your perusal….

2013 Bunbury Cup

As you can see there really isn’t that much in the way of out and out front-runners here so it is a bit of a guessing game with regards to the pace, I guess there is every chance our 2 are caught on the wrong side of it, although hopefully not and my initial assessment of a high pace bias is correct.

I also had a look at the trends for this race but in my opinion it isn’t really a strong race for the angle and not one that I would personally get stuck into in that regard. However, I did in the end plump with the following 4 to give us just another little angle into the race…

15/16 had at least 1 previous victory over 6f

14/16 ran over 7f or 8f LTO

12/16 had only 1 start in the past 30 days

10/16 were (IRE) bred

That does actually cut the race down a fair bit and of the clutch that are left REDVERS is one of them. FIELD OF DREAM only fails on 1 of them so I’m not overly concerned on that score.

Both look to have conditions in their favour and at the prices – FIELD OF DREAM 11-1, REDVERS 14/1 – I’m happy to have them both on my side.

Even if they don’t fire today they won’t be dropping off the to follow list, there is every chance it will be a messy race, especially as there seems to be no clear cut pace angle.

Now onto the big race of the day; The Darley July Cup.

Darley July Cup Analysis…

It looks an enthralling renewal of this Group 1 and they are sure to scorch down the 6f track in the lightning fast conditions.

The analysis for this race does a fine job of cutting the field into a manageable chunk so hopefully the winner is on the shortlist…

>>>Free Darley July Cup Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

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Ben (BDH)

BDH Sandown Review: Gannon’s not Dun yet….

An interesting couple of days for us over the weekend and before I crack into the review of the 5f sprint at Sandown from Friday I just want to tidy up a few loose ends.

Starting with…

DOCTOR PARKES

As far as his role as a BDH runner is concerned it’s job done and thank you very much. On Friday he was very much a ‘well drawn horse’ and he rewarded us all at some very tasty prices. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does but for the purposes of this here blog he happily moves off the BDH list. Good job Doc.

DUKE OF FIRENZE

I think what Duke of Firenze (I’m going to call him DOF from now on!) confirmed to me on Saturday was that he needs the big fields to produce his best. Small fields tend to congregate and cluster up into 1 group, causing plenty of traffic jams for hold-up runners, such as DOF. In large field races the runners tend to fan out at the end of the race and gaps appear between runners as the petrol gauge starts to flicker on empty, gaps that Duke of Firenze obviously loves coming through in the closing stages. When the runners are spread across the track they naturally open up and fan out as the energy levels drop in the closing stages, this is where I feel Duke Of Firenze can be seen at his best.

He certainly met plenty trouble in-running on Saturday and he was hindered at least twice when looking to make forward moves. As mentioned this is more likely to happen in small fields when they cluster up so as frustrating as it is, it also isn’t surprising.

For now he remains on the BDH list.

Now onto the meat of today’s post…

Race in focus: 2.20 Sandown (05-07-2013) – LONDON’S RACE TRACKS RACINGANDMUSIC.CO.UK HANDICAP (Class 3 Handicap) 5f (14ran)

How the race played out…

Doctor Parkes Sandown Race 05-07

As is generally the case with sprints at Sandown it is the runners drawn low and up with the pace that come out on top and it was no different in this contest. There was some fine analysis pre-race on Racing UK by Eddie ‘the shoe’ Fremantle about the effect of the draw at Sandown over the 5f trip, where he pointed out the advantage of being drawn in the low stalls. He himself had walked the track before the race and stated that there was a distinct advantage, in his opinion, to those drawn low. That was purely from him having walked the track and tested the underfoot conditions himself. As it turns out he was spot on and it was also something I had indicated in my Blog post on Friday. It is very much something to keep in mind when punting in these types of races at Sandown although obviously the bias is somewhat negated in the smaller fields (7 or less runners).

The pace map tells us that the pace was set by FAIR VALUE in the 6 box and he tracked across to the far rail early on. DOCTOR PARKES got a good break from the 2 box and that allowed jockey Neil Callan to position him just where he wanted him, something that proved pivotal in his victory. JOE PACKET didn’t break quite as well and he was maybe just a quarter step behind where he wanted to be for most of the race, nevertheless he was still in a decent posi compared to some. Possibly the most interesting aspect of the pace was the fact that the top 5 stalls (boxes 10-15) all made the early decision to switch in behind the pack and run held-up. That isn’t too unexpected as they all generally run that way anyway but in truth it was also their only real option from their unfavorable draws. Unfortunately it was also a moved that severely compromised their chances. Of the 5 of them the smartest riding came from Thomas Brown on STEPS who kept his mount on the outer of the main group, leaving him room to try and bullet home late with an unblocked passage (ooh er missus!). He did, however, have the ‘best’ of the wide draws and was in a prime slot to make that decision.

The end result…

The winner DOCTOR PARKES was well drawn, in the prime position throughout and took full advantage. This was a good performance and he won fairly readily in the end. He will possibly now be pushing on to a mark that he will start to struggle with, as always it will be interesting to see the handicappers reaction. Second placed JOE PACKET possibly didn’t get the best start and had to fight his way back into it a bit but it was a solid run and there is every suggestion that he can win from this mark. He may just be better suited to being stepped back up to 6f. Third placed STEPS ran a very sound race from out wide, he was one that didn’t have a great draw but the fact he stayed wide probably benefited him as he had a clear passage to the line. He is running from a career high mark at the minute but still remains competitive, it is a close call whether the handicapper has him in his grip or not; personally I would like to see him dropped just a couple of lbs. FAIR VALUE gave it fair effort from the front but just couldn’t keep the closer’s at bay and faded slightly in the final yards into fourth. His recent runs suggest he could well pick a race up from this mark though and an easy 5f is probably his best option. Fifth place TAAJUB didn’t really take advantage of his good draw and found trouble by being held up. He is another that suggests he could win from his current mark. As previously mentioned it’s hard to win from out the back and out wide over Sandown’s flying 5 furlongs so for that reason I would be willing to crank up DUNGANNON’s 6th placed run a notch or 2. It was an extremely difficult draw to win from and he did well to get so close and he did motor home once the gaps appeared; to only finish 2.5 lengths in arrears was a fine effort.

BDH(s) to follow…

DUNGANNON (6th) (A Balding)

This 6yo gelding put in some decent late work once the gaps appeared and whilst his finishing position probably doesn’t fully justify his effort it should be enough to keep him under the radar of most punters.

Possibly the most interesting angle with this horse is his current handicap mark of 88. That is a full 7lbs lower than his last winning mark and 2lbs lower than his 2nd highest winning mark. If we also consider the fact that he has run well from marks as high as 99 & 97 then it isn’t hard to make the assumption that he is currently sitting on a pretty handy mark.

It’s also interesting to note that all his wins have come when returning within 28 days or less of his last run (on Friday it was 32 days since his last run)…

Form when returning within 28 days of last run – 010061013571

Form when returning after a break of 29 days+ – 569252678055

He doesn’t necessarily run ‘poorly’ after longer breaks but the fact all his wins have come off shorter breaks suggests that ideally we want him on the track within a month.

He looks fairly adaptable when it comes to ground and to a certain extent distance (winning form over 5f, 6f & 7f) so his options should be open enough with regards to future targets. His handicap mark is clearly the most interesting aspect about him and I would be surprised if he can’t take advantage of it very soon, especially off the back of his run at Sandown last Friday.

Conditions – Ideally we are wanting him back on the track within the month, the 28 day window looks his optimum and there should be plenty of targets for him to be aimed at. He has winning form over 7f but personally I think 5f or 6f would be the ideal trips for him, again there should be plenty of openings for him within the next few weeks.

DUNGANNON now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Free Guides, Betting Systems & Updates

If you want to receive regular updates and download an array of free guides from BDH/NTF then please visit the following page and join the growing community –

>>> Join the BDH/NTF community

On joining you will be sent a link to download a multitude of FREE GUIDES, including free horse racing tips, pointers, guides and free horse racing betting systems.

(If you are a current NTF member then you can ignore this message)

Ben (BDH)

BDH Update: Is the Duke ready to Fire?

Will Ryan Moore find the gaps?

Another quick update for you today guys as another BDH runner heads into battle.

First of all though a big thanks for all the comments regarding Doctor Parkes’ win yesterday. Fantastic to see so many of you on board and collecting the spoils.

Now onto today’s task in hand…

BDH runner: 2:05 Sandown – DUKE OF FIRENZE

Ahh the Duke… what to do with the Duke…

I must say it’s not as straight forward a task as the good doctor yesterday. I did mention in my notes that I think he is a graded beast…and this is a graded contest…however, I was thinking more along the lines of the big 16+ runner sprints such as the July Cup and races of such ilk. An 8 runner contest at Sandown poses a slightly different conundrum.

For starters we know he needs a strong pace to come hard and fast off the back of, so lets look at the pace map and see if there is potential for plenty of speed….

Sandown Sprint Stakes

That does give us a bit of hope. Three potential front-runners and 2 others sitting in-behind suggests there may well be plenty of pace on the go here.

My main concern really is that a flying 5 furlongs at Sandown generally plays to the hands of those up with the pace or making the pace, the ones coming from behind can often come unstuck (the stats do back this up).

I’m very much in 2 minds about how this race will suit Duke Of Firenze. On one hand he has a good draw and should get a decent pace to aim at but on the other hand it is not a track that really suits horses flying hard and fast from out the back…hmmm…

My thought is to take a punt on him at around the 6-1 mark but at reduced stakes. Now I generally don’t play about with my stakes unless the situation really suggest that I do… today the situation suggests I reduce my stakes!

I think there will be better opportunities for this lad as the season progresses but there is the potential for the race to fall into his lap, especially if the 3 potential pace-setters go hammer and tong at it up front, and as such I want a bit on him in case that situation does arise, especially as we can get around 6-1 on the exchanges and with a couple of other firms.

Am I as confident as I was about Doctor Parkes? Not at all. Do I think there is more to come from this horse? Most certainly. Will he get the fast pace needed? I’m hopeful.

At the very least today will be a good test for him and hopefully a decent indicator of does he just have another valuable handicap in him or whether he can indeed take the step up the ladder to Graded level….

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)

 

BDH Update: The Doctor’s on call at Sandown…

Time for the Doctor to strut his stuff!

Quick post today guys as we have one BDH runner going to war for us…

BDH runner: 2:20 Sandown – DOCTOR PARKES

The 7yo is making a relatively quick return from his Chester run last Saturday but in fairness jockey Harry Bentley eased up a touch on him in the final furlong and he didn’t really have an overly hard race that day.

He should get his ground at Sandown today as the going is currently described as Good and a quick look at the weather forecast tells me it is set fair for the day, in fact it looks like the sun will be out in all his glory. Providing that weather forecast is correct (!?!) then I would expect the ground to firm up rather than soften down, which is ideal for the Doctor. He has a prime draw in the 2 box (actually the hottest box over this trip at Sandown in these fields sizes), is on a decent mark, is racing over his preferred 5f and the yard are hitting form. He is also currently available at an each-way price, if you are that way inclined.

There are enough boxes ticked here for me to get involved although, as always, I will be keeping a close eye on the weather to make sure there is no unexpected rain coming in to spoil the day.

Best of luck if you are getting involved.

Ben (BDH)

BDH Update: Jack delivers but we wait on the Doctor…

Jack does just enough at Newcastle.

Just a quick update on a couple of BDH runners that took to the track over the weekend. I was actually away in Wales for a couple of days on a mini tour with Mrs NTF (She doesn’t want to switch names between Mrs NTF & Mrs BDH…so she remains as Mrs NTF on here!!) and just didn’t have the time/coverage to post them on here before they ran.

Both runners took the track on Saturday, one had his conditions whilst the other didn’t quite have his conditions….

JACK DEXTER – 29-06-13 Newcastle 2.05 Betfred Chipchase Stakes

I was slightly surprised to see this boy out so quickly after his Ascot run but it was obviously too good an opportunity for connections to pass up, especially as the rain had opened up the ground for him. The conditions were correct for us to get involved, being that it was over 6f and on ground with cut in it. The price was admittedly a bit skinny but he did the job with just enough to spare. I though Graham Lee gave him a fine ride as the horse had very little cover in the small field and Lee had to produce at just the right time, which he did.

The horse remains on the BDH list, he is obviously in fine fettle and fingers crossed he can get plenty of underfoot cut in future assignments.

DOCTOR PARKES – 29-06-13 Chester 2.45 Ma Kelly’s Blackpool Handicap

The ground was Good to Soft here and we really want at least Good ground before we get our money down; this was a no bet for me. He also had a relatively poor draw from stall 8. The upside of this lackluster run was that he was dropped another 1lb by the handicapper, always good for when we get him on his favoured conditions.

He remains on the BDH list.

Ben (BDH)