Royal Ascot Day 5: The Diamond Jubilee Stakes Dosage & Trends Analysis

Can another Oz raider follow in the hoof-prints of Black Caviar?

Amazingly that is us now staring day 5 of Royal Ascot 2013 slap bang in the chops!

Does it get any easier? Does it hell! I won’t shirk my responsibilities though and I’ve tackled the tricky looking Diamond Jubilee 6f blitz full-on and smashed it over the *coupon with a twin Dosage & Trends assault. I’ve also taken a look at the fascinating puzzle that is the 29 runner Wokingham Stakes and pulled together a pace map for your perusal. Interestingly the race also contains 2 (yes TWO!) BDH to follow horses. But more on both those races in a bit…

*Coupon is Scottish slang for head/face

Day 4 at Royal Ascot (or Friday as some may prefer to call it!) was far from a day of heavy hitting for me. I was pleased, however, to see the Ballydoyle inmate LEADING LIGHT fire in a battling victory in the Queens Vase. Mainly because it bolstered the Montjeu offspring record  over 2m+ at the track. I like those angles, so I like to see them stand up under pressure, I’m a man of simple pleasures! LEADING LIGHT is a gutsy, battling sort of colt and I like his attitude, it will be interesting to see how he is campaigned from here as I think he has plenty to offer.

Performance of the day has to go, however, to SKY LANTERN. That was a mightily impressive display in the Coronation Stakes and fully confirmed the impression that she is a filly right out of the top drawer. She scored full marks on my trends for the race so I wasn’t surprised by the win, but the way she won from her tricky draw DID surprise me. The ‘Sky’ could well be the limit.

On the polling front it didn’t pan out for you guys as BATTLE OF MARENGO was gunned down late by the charging HILLSTAR and Ryan Moore. Never mind though as you have one more chance, as a collective group, to nail a Royal Ascot BDH polling victory…

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Before I lavish you with the final FREE BDH Royal Ascot analysis guide of the week it’s time to put the cavalry charge that is the Wokingham under a bit of scrutiny.

I’m not sure if it is the racing gods conspiring for us or against us but we have ended up with 2 recent BDH to follow horses going to battle here; YORK GLORY & DINKUM DIAMOND.

Of the two of them I would say it is DINKUM DIAMOND that has the best of the draw, however, YORK GLORY should also just have enough from his draw to hook onto the back of the pace.

Here is how I see the pace working out…

Wokingham

I’m thinking it is low to middle that has the call here. Obviously that suits DINKUM more than YORK but I can see a situation where the high numbers swing down low early and hook onto the back of the main group.

I also fired the field through some primary trends…

15/16 aged 4, 5 or 6 

14/16 top 4 finish LTO

14/16 rated 102 or less

After that you are still left with around a third of the field but importantly it still has DINKUM & YORK in the frame.

Both look to have conditions in their favour and at the prices – YORK GLORY 16-1, DINKUM DIAMOND 25/1 – I’m happy to have them both on my side.

Even if they don’t fire today they won’t be dropping off the to follow list, there is every chance it will be a messy race.

Now onto the final race in focus for the week; The Diamond Jubilee.

From an analysis side of things this is far from clear cut (as you will see from the guide). There are a lot of runners very close together on the trends and the Dosage doesn’t cut a big enough swathe through the field for it to be of any real significance. Regardless I have given my two tuppence worth for you all to consider…

>>>Free Diamond Jubilee Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with my selections, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize for your own thoughts and workings.

Hopefully you have all enjoyed the BDH analysis through this Royal Ascot week. As always it has been a tricky assignment and personally I’m glad I cherry-picked my targets.

By the way can anyone find me a video of BILLIE MAGERN holding on at the end at Market Rasen yesterday!? In twitter speak I am still #gutted ! Sterling effort from the Summer Stunner though…

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Ben (BDH)

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16 thoughts on “Royal Ascot Day 5: The Diamond Jubilee Stakes Dosage & Trends Analysis

  1. Fancy York Glory of the two. Dinkum Diamond seems best over 5f and 6f will stretch him. Hard luck with Billie yesterday, beaten a neck. Had a terrible Royal Ascot and desperately need a winner. Good luck to all and the makes good reading.

    • Hi Bob

      6f may just stretch Dinkum Diamond but I reckon he is worth another try over the trip. Things haven’t quite fallen for him the 3 times he has tried the trip.

      Billie Mag was a sickner yesterday, lead everywhere but the line!!

      Best of luck at Ascot today mate.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

      • Nocturn for me, appears right at the top of my list for Form & CB Lto and according to your Pace map sits next to a possible front runner, trends also have him pegged up top.

        I’ve had an incredible week at Ascot this week with fantastic profits always a plus, I wish everyone the best of luck on day 5.

    • Hi Jeffrey

      Nocturn would be on my short-list for sure, would be no surprise to me to see him run well.

      Glad you have had an incredible week and best of luck also for day 5.

      Ben (BDH)

  2. well done ben. didnt back either, but clearly this is going to be a profitable approach going forward and cant wait for the next one that crops up! it was a strange race – was put of by stat that 91 horses had tried to win this race stepping up from 5f last time with only 1 winner – but stats are stats and should be used wisely – York Glory was proven at 6f on reflection. good recent form in competitive handicaps a must and he fit that box!

    keep up the great work and look forward to rest of season. Ascot was ok for me, small profit on the week.

    • Thanks Josh

      I did see that stat flying about (stepping up from 5f) but I had a closer look myself and the expected winners were not high so it wasn’t one that concerned me.

      More to come as the season’s progresses (hopefully!)

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  3. Pingback: The Queen Shares Her Views On The Latest Goings On. Sort Of | Stirring Trouble i

  4. Very well done with both York Glory and Lethal Force. I get the impression that Dinkum Diamond is better over 5f than 6f and especially not the tough 6f of Ascot – but I will ceertainly be backing him when he next runs over 5f or an easy 6f. Tony N

    • Many thanks Tony

      I think Dinkum D is effective over 6f but he probably is better over 5f. I think the key for him, however, is to have Good to Firm ground, that is when he really performs at the top of his game.

      Ben (BDH)

  5. Pingback: 3.05 Ascot (18-06-13) – KING’S STAND STAKES (GROUP 1) 5f (19 ran) | Badly Drawn Horse

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