Royal Ascot Day 4: Pointers, Pace & Pedigree…

Will the Guineas 1-2 fight out the finish again today?

Day 4 of Royal Ascot 2013 doesn’t hold a huge deal of interest for me if I’m honest, nothing I want to put a guide together for anyway. Instead what I have for you is a few trends pointers, pace maps and Dosage profiles for you to add into your own analysis.

As always though lets take a quick look back at yesterday’s race in focus; The Ascot Gold Cup.

First up I have to say, on reflection, it was a slightly unsatisfactory race. They crawled along for the first 4 or so furlongs and even turning for home they were still quite well bunched. The last thing I wanted to see was SADDLERS ROCK & COLOUR VISION trying to make the pace in the early stages, the simple facts are that front-runners struggle to win this race, especially when they are setting no sort of pace. I was slightly happier when EARL OF TINSDAL took up the lead but even then he took a long time to inject any sort of pace.   Personally I wouldn’t be too convinced how strong the form will prove to be for this renewal.

On the figures front here is how the short-list played out…

SADDLERS ROCK  (15/18) – 8th at 9/2

COLOUR VISION (15/18) – 4th at 12/1

LAST TRAIN (15/18) – 11th at 14/1

TIMES UP (13/18) – 13th at 11/1

MODEL PUPIL (13/18) – 7th at 33/1

RITE OF PASSAGE (13/18) – N/R

COLOUR VISION looked the most likely to do the business and credit where credits due it was a big run and some sort of return to form. Front-running or at least sitting right on the pace isn’t his cup of tea and if there is one that do I want to take from the race it may well be him.

Yesterday’s poll was also a tad unsatisfactory for us. The Lark was an early enough N/R so that didn’t effect things too much but the late withdrawal of Alive Alive Oh pretty much screwed the poll over! Don’t worry though, I’m happy to pull a veil over that one and let you redeem yourselves by taking part in today’s vote…

.

Now onto a few pointers for day 4 of Royal Ascot 2013…

2:30 Albany Stakes

2yo fillies over a straight 6 furlongs, not really my usual area of attack I’ll be honest! Obviously there isn’t much to go on with this lightly raced bunch, even the Dosage doesn’t really help matters, but there are a couple of trends that may ‘very mildly’ help to narrow the field…

11/11 had 1 or 2 previous career starts

9/11 ran within the past 30 days

7/11 won last time out

To be honest that doesn’t chop off much of the field at all! It’s one of those types of races.

The pace bias is obviously important in these large field sprints but again we have little to go on and no real solid idea of how these fillies are likely to ply their trade on the pace front. Based on what we have seen from them so far this is ‘potentially’ how the pace ‘may’ work out…

Albany Stakes

All a bit of guess work but from the limited data we have so far it could be a middle to high pace bias, not something I will stick the mortgage on though!!

Essentially I’m not getting involved in this. If you are able to use anything from the above to help you then great, personally it will be a note taking race for myself.

3:05 King Edward VII Stakes

A short-priced Ballydoyle fav taking a whack out of the market here so if you want to be against him you will have some juicy odds on your side.

This is a fairly strong Dosage race so lets see if that side of things paints any sort of picture for us…

King Edward VII Dosage Trends

DP          15/15 had 12 points or more in DP

                13/15 had 22 points or more in DP

               

DI            11/15 had a DI of 1.29 or below

                0/15 had a DI below 0.65

               

CD          11/15 had a CD of 0.33 or below

                1/15 had a CD below -0.06

               

DPA       (13/15) – DQ – 5 / 20+ – 8 / PATB – 0

Applying that to today’s small but select field gives us…

Snug Fit

CONTRIBUTER

5-3-10-5-1 DQ 24 1.18 0.25
THA ‘IR 2-3-10-3-2 DQ 20 1.00

0.00

Can’t be discounted

HAVANA BEAT

1-2-5-2-0

/

10

1.22

0.20

FANTASTIC MOON

1-1-7-1-2

PATB

12

0.85

-0.17

Not ideal

MUTASHADED

1-0-6-5-0

/

12

0.50

-0.25

GREATWOOD

2-0-11-7-2

20+

22

0.52

-0.32

Wide of the mark

BATTLE OF MARENGO

8-3-13-4-0

20+

28

1.67

0.54

HILLSTAR

4-3-10-0-1

/

18

2.00

0.50

Interestingly that plonks the fav outwith the majority ranges.

Is he good enough to overcome his Dosage figures and the penalty he carries? He could be quite a bit ahead of this bunch and it won’t really be a surprise to me if he laughs in the face of his Dosage negativity here. If you want a negative to try and take him on though, there you go…

3:45 Coronation Stakes

A healthy turn out for this fillies Grade 1 and we have both the English & Irish 1000 Guineas winners in attendance.

The Dosage isn’t a huge help in this race and I also fired through the trends and the top 2 came out as SKY LANTERN (13/13) and JUST THE JUDGE (12/13); no real surprise on that score. The draw hasn’t been overly kind to the 2 of them though and they may have to dig in to get a good position, so they certainly have that to overcome. I reckon I’ll sit and watch this one myself…

4:25 Wolferton Handicap

Not a race that really tickles my fancy but here are a couple of pointers if you want to get try and nail the winners…

10/11 had their last start within the past 16-60 days 

9/11 were 4yo’s

From a draw perspective, over this trip at Ascot you really don’t want to be drawn any higher than stall 11

Applying those 3 rather crude ‘rules’ leaves us with…

REWARDED – ALBASHARAH – CHAPTER SEVEN – MOBACO

Good luck if you are getting involved.

5:00 Queens Vase

Despite being a staying contest for 3yo’s this isn’t a particularly strong race for the Dosage trends at all.

Essentially this has been a market driven race with most recent winners starting in the top 3 of the market, in fact 4 of the last 5 winners have started as favourite.

In these long distance races I often look to the sire stats and over 2 miles and further at Ascot it is the MONTJEU progeny that catch my eye. Digging in to my Proform Database tells me their recent record over staying trips at the track is a rather fetching…

9/47 | 19% S/R | +£47.04 BFLSP – Win & Place 15/47 | 32% S/R

They are also winning more than the market expects them to.

A quick scan of today’s runners tells me that Montjeu has one of his kids running for him in the Queens Vase; the current 2/1 fav LEADING LIGHT.

He has a penalty to carry (only runner in field that does) but he is rated upwards of 8lbs superior to the others.

Once again, best of luck if you are getting involved.

5:35 Buckingham Palace Stakes

29 runners blitzing down the straight 7 furlong course; time to look at the draw and decipher if there is any pace bias likely to be in play…

Buckingham Palace

Hmmm…precious little clues there really as it looks a pretty even spread on the pace front. It may just favour middle to low drawn horses but the key horse could be Maverik from box 18. If he goes high then that gives them an advantage, if he stays middle then it’s a completely different complexion.  My gut feeling is that he will stay middle and it will be middle to low that is where the pace is. That, however, is only a gut feeling and nothing more.

If the bottom numbers do blitz away it could be something down low that is grabbing onto their coattails and gets a good tow into the race that eventually prevails in this puzzler.

Once again, best of luck if you are getting involved.

In essence this isn’t a Royal Ascot day I’ll get overly involved in, if indeed involved at all. There is an ‘NTF Summer Stunner‘ running at Market Rasen today who I’m much more interested in to tell the truth. If you have the FREE Summer Stunners guide you will know who I’m talking about, if not then grab yourself a copy here.

I will be back tomorrow with a full-on Dosage & Trends assault on the Diamond Jubilee Sprint as I aim to finish Royal Ascot week the way it started; with a Group 1 sprint winner!

Happy Royal Ascot punting if you do indeed plan on getting involved.

Ben (BDH)

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7 thoughts on “Royal Ascot Day 4: Pointers, Pace & Pedigree…

  1. great read Ben and some useful information as ever. it does look a tricky day, lets just say if the boys in blue have a good day then so will I! small change on theirs in the first, Thair EW and albasharah who could be a group horse in the making – although 5/1 in such a race isnt too exciting and will be looking to back something else at bigger odds.

    I presume you are talking about our friend Billie M at market raisen? if not I have failed to put whatever horse it is into my tracker!! hopefully there is not a pace burn up with him and the bowen horse!

    also noticed that our friends McCain and Maguire have another blinkered runner first up in the the 2.10…

    anyway, back to the flat, good luck on whatever you do play today

    josh

    • Hi Josh

      You got it in one, its our pal William Magern! My initial worry was a pace burn up with the Pipe horse buts its now a N/R so I’m much happier. He is probably near the top of his hcp ceiling after his win last time out but in this company it’s mark he can strike from. M & M 1st time Blinks also well on my radar, bit concerned that it’s in a seller again (1 of last qualifiers was in a seller) as from memory that isn’t the usual route he takes with 1st time blinks. Still, I’l be on it as the system dictates, it owes me nothing and happy to roll with it.

      Best of luck with your boys in blue assault today.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  2. Gallant and brave effort from our friend Billie, thought he had it sown up but the weight difference told in the end. good performance from winner, his jumping was nearly faultless all the way round which is what enabled him to get up close home I think. hopefully handicapper keeps billie at same weight as he would beat lesser rivals!

    • So close from Billie! Was counting the money. I fear there may well be a small weight increase for him after that, hopefully not though as he is obviously in rude health!

  3. Picked up 2 things from this post. 1) Sky Lantern was the only 1 in the field to score full marks on the trends 2) Montjeu offspring do well in 2m+ races at Ascot & most winners of Queen Vase start in top 3 of the market (Leading Light an easy choice there). Also downloaded your Summer Stunners guide and stuck Bil Magern in a trixie with the Sky Lant n Leading Lite!! Oh so close to a massive payout!! (for my standards anyway). Brilliant work. Look forward to following through the summer and beyond.

    Ta – Brian

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