Royal Ascot Day 3: The Ascot Gold Cup Dosage & Trends Analysis

Can the Queen land the Ascot Gold Cup with Estimate?

Day 3 of Royal Ascot 2013 comes rumbling into view and the main attraction of the day comes in the shape of the 2m4f Ascot Gold Cup.

The Grade 1 stayers contest will be my race in focus today so it will be a little bit of a deviation away from the straight track action.

Before we pull on our marathon boots, however, let’s take a look back at yesterday’s analysis race; The Royal Hunt Cup.

First things first the pace played out a bit strange and that was always the worry when there was no real confirmed front-runner in the pack. It was a bit of a guessing game beforehand (on the pace angle) which is unusual for a 30 runner field.

Secondly, what on earth was Richard Hughes thinking on-board STIRRING BALLAD?! If he had been drawn near the centre then fair enough but switching across the track from stall THREE AND after they had traveled a furlong and a half?! The fastest way from point A to B is more often than not in a straight line and it was clear after a furlong that the low drawn group was where the serious pace was at. The dramatic switch by Hughes most certainly compromised the fillies chances and I would be happy to draw a line under this run. No more moaning from me on the subject though, I don’t risk my life day in day out on the back of a thoroughbred racehorse and I’m sure Hughsie will make up for it sooner rather than later.

On the figures front here is how the shortlist played out..

TWO FOR TWO (13/14) – 12th at 10-1

BURKES ROCK (13/14) – 8th at 12-1

MORGAN GRA (12/14) – 19th at 16-1

DAVID LIVINGSTONE (12/14) – 5th at 12-1

WINTERS NIGHT (11.5/14) – 10th at 33/1

STIRRING BALLAD (11.5/14) – 22nd at 10/1

CAPTAIN BERTIE (11.5/14) – 21st at 28/1

Woof! Well wide of the mark. But when you look at races of this nature you have to be willing to take these results on the chin and accept that sometimes your in-depth work will be in vain. I’ve been doing this long enough to be happy with the fact that there will be races of this nature sent to make you look a mug! It’s a long term game this and you can’t win ’em all (despite what some people say!).

But where did the winner sit on the final figures?

There were 3 runners on the next level of the figures and they were…

FURY – 11/14

EDUCATE – 11/14

BELGIAN BILL – 11/14

On my adjusted figures the winner (Belgian Bill) wasn’t that far away from my main group at all. You have to draw the line somewhere, however, and he just failed to make the cut.

Before you download today’s guide it’s time for you to lot to aim for the hat-trick in the voting stakes! So far the majority of you have selected Dawn Approach (Tuesday) & Al Kazeem (Wednesday) for their respective races. Today, however, I’m making it a bit more difficult…

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Now onto the race in focus for day 3 of Royal Ascot 2013.

At the top of the Ascot Gold Cup market is the Queen’s horse ESTIMATE, trained by Sir Michael Stoute and ridden by Ryan Moore. It is sure to be punted by many today due to those 3 factors alone (Queen, Sir Stoute & Moore) and the fact it won last time out is going to persuade plenty of casual punters to have a dabble. That is good news for those of you that want to look elsewhere in the Ascot Gold Cup as it should keep the prices of the others up, to a certain extent.

What we do have to watch out for today is the ground. It has actually firmed up over night and is currently Good To Firm. However, I do believe there is rain forecast today so lets keep an eye on the weather and some potential easing of the ground. Hopefully any rain won’t significantly chance the underfoot conditions though (fingers crossed).

But weather and the Queen’s horse aside what are the figures telling us? Download the free guide below and find out for yourself…

>>>Free Ascot Gold Cup analysis guide

As always you don’t have to side with me here, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize into your own thoughts and workings.

Happy Royal Ascot punting, however you decide to put the guide to use.

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Ben (BDH)

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