Epsom Derby Meeting Day 2: Dosage & Trends Analysis

Day 2 of the Epsom Derby meeting and it’s the big one; The Investec Derby!

I have 2 races under scrutiny today for you lot but before I give you the guide it’s well worth taking a look back at yesterday’s proceedings.

We started with Diomed Stakes and our fate was known on Producer before he even entered the stalls as it looked for all money that he wouldn’t go in and was being unusually mule-ish. He did eventually load in the stalls but the amount of energy used up behind the stalls probably lost him his race, it was also far from ideal that Hughes made a scoot for home as they turned Tattenham Corner, an odd move and ultimately the horse petered out to be a 4 length 4th. The other horse on the short-list, Penitent, ran a solid race in 2nd.

The Investec Mile, although not nailing the winner, actually turned out to be a really solid race for the guide.

Here is how the short-list fared…

HI THERE – 8th at 8-1

OCEAN TEMPEST – 3rd at 10/1

LEVITATE – 4th at 8/1

BENZANNO – 5th at 15/2

LORD OF THE SHADOWS – 2nd at 16/1

Lord Of The Shadows only went down by 1/2 a length in the end and met trouble in-running 2f out and also stumbled slightly 1f out. It may not have been the difference between winning and losing but it’s worth noting and the run did at least back up my notion he is very well handicapped on old form.

The Oaks was the 3rd race for us and it was a bit like Chester Cup deja bloody vu for me! 4 on the short-list, I went for 2 of them, the other 2 finished 1st & 2nd!! The consolation being that the figures were spot-on, the downside being that my bank-balance does not reflect it!

Here is how the short-list fared…

LIBER NAUTICUS – 5th at 4-1

TALENT – 1st at 20/1 (BFSP 26.61)

BANOFFEE – 7th at 7/1

SECRET GESTURE – 2nd at 3/1

The other consolation being that I know some of you profited from the figures, so well done if you went with Talent 🙂

In the end the guide performed really well and I’m more than happy with how the figures panned out.

On to today and we start with the fiendishly tricky Epsom Dash. The pace looks to be coming from all over the track and although the low numbers hold the real speedsters there are enough up the top end to make it an even spread. Regardless of the result I’ll be reviewing the race closely to see if there were any hard luck stories from a draw/pace angle and will be reporting back next week.

The Derby is our 2nd race and the big question is about Dawn Approach’s stamina. To me the real question isn’t ‘Does Dawn Approach have enough stamina to see out the trip?’ but more ‘Are there other runners in the race who have stronger staying credentials than the favourite?’ and if yes ‘Does Dawn Approach have enough in the way of class to counteract the stronger stayers?’.

The answer isn’t a clear one to be honest. Yes, there are likely to be stronger stayers in the race. Yes, Dawn Approach looks to be head and shoulders above the others in terms of class. It may be enough to counteract the stronger stayers in a normal run race but we also have to factor in the Ballydoyle spoilers out front, who are sure to set off like their arse is on fire!. They have often made a muck up of the pace tactics in the past but they will get it spot on one day…

The truth is I can see a situation where Dawn Approach romps away with this race, however, there are enough questions marks and spoilers in there for me to look elsewhere at his current odds…

It is all in today’s guide, which you can download from the link below…

*Ocovango Dosage figures updated 11.30 am

>>>Epsom Derby Day Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with me here, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize into your own thoughts and workings.

Happy Derby day punting however you decide to put the guide to use.

Ben (BDH)


18 thoughts on “Epsom Derby Meeting Day 2: Dosage & Trends Analysis

  1. Hi Ben, wcould you please confirm the figures for Ocovango. Pedigree Query give him a DI of 0.88 & a CD of 0.10. This would put him right in the mix.

    • Great spot Steve, many thanks! Monsun is a recent addition to the influential sires list but it has taken pedigree query sometime to update him on their database, clearly that has now been done. I had to manually calculate his offspring’s figures on my own records but Ocovango clearly skipped under the radar (I must have taken his figures before the update and then for some reason my own database didn’t pick him up as a Monsun kid).

      You are correct in that he is right in the mix with those figures.

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

  2. Even though I think Dawn Approach will win, he is not in the same league as when Frankel stepped up in trip from 8 to 10F, more like when Sprinter Sacre went from 2 to 2.5 miles.So even though I am on at 13.0 Anteposte I have made some bets on his main rivals at BV and Lads.
    However I think Talent winning the Oaks is a good sign for Dawn Approach rather than for Libertarian.

    • Hi Ian

      Dawn Approach certainly has some questions to answer but like many I won’t be surprised if he answers those questions in style. At the price, however, I’ll give him a miss and there are worthy opponents over this trip in today’s field.

      Good analogy by the way 🙂

      Cheers for comment – Ben (BDH)

  3. Well done Ben! Just for once I did not back the selection – usually I follow most of yours so I share the “pain” and “glory” – what a shame – going through a bit of a bad spell but never mind – your stuff is excellent – one question. On the NTF site your PDF shows the dosage table highlighted in order of strength. I know I should be able to read the dosage figures myself but I find the new way where all the runners are together and not ordered at that point a little confusing. Any reason for this? I recognise that later you do separate them accordingly. However a like the format overall.

    Anyway great new addition. And well done on the summer stunners even if I failed to back the “bloody” 20/1 winner Pure Faith – I was on the other one Ixora.


    • Hi Ian

      That’s a fair point with the dosage figures and has given me an idea to make it a bit easier all round to view and utilize. As you know I’m always open to suggestions from you guys who follow the guides so thanks for that, a little tweak maybe needed 🙂

      Gutted you missed ROTW in the Derby AND Pure Faith! Aaaghh! I’m sure there is more winners on the Summer Stunners to come yet though.

      Cheers for the comment – Ben (BDH)

  4. Thanks a lot, Ben. I made a small profit on Oaks Day from your selections and a lovely large one on your 2 selections in the Derby. I laid the fav as soon as I saw it pulling confident that there was no way it could run the trip.

  5. Well done Ben. Although I didnt have a bet on Derby day due to work committments, I’m sure your analysis of the three day meeting has brought profit to many and to bag the “big one” just reward for your painstaking efforts . You have proved to me that this method of analysis works accurately and any serious bettor should refer to it before placing a bet. I’m already looking forward to the next one. Keep up the good work.

    • Many thanks for that Jim, very much appreciated.

      It really is painstaking work but it’s worth it in the long haul, the Derby win was a grand way to top of the 2 days.

      I usually run a service covering a large quantity of races using the same method but I have a couple of other commitments this summer so that will be having a break until the autumn. There will, however, be a few more free guides here on the Blog so stay tuned 🙂

      Cheers – Ben (BDH)

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