Epsom Derby Meeting Day 1: Dosage & Trends Analysis

Which of today’s fillies will fill the shoes of Was?

Classic time again this weekend and I’m taking another dive into the top class action on offer and giving it the full Trends and Dosage shakedown!

Today I’m tackling 3 races; The Diomed Stakes, The Investec Mile and the big one of the day The Investec Oaks.

You can download the full analysis guide, for FREE, from the following link –

>>>NTF Epsom Derby meeting Day 1 Analysis Guide

As always you don’t have to side with me here, there is plenty of analysis in the guide that you can utilize into your own thoughts and workings.

Happy punting however you decide to put the guide to use.

p.s. I’m starting to pull together the BDH Trend Horses page so give it a look when you get a chance (click tab in menu bar above).

Ben (BDH)

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2.55 York (25-05-13): 32RED.COM SPRINT (HANDICAP STAKES) 5f, Class 2 (19 ran)

Good afternoon guys and welcome to the first ever Badly Drawn Horse (BDH) Blog post! The clue is essentially in the title but if you want to find out a bit more about this spanking new sister of NTF then just click on the ‘About’ page in the menu above.

To give you a brief overview… I will be looking at large field races run on straight tracks at distances up to a mile and identifying horses that run well from what I considered a poor, or at least unfavourable, draw. The idea is then to scrutinize these horses and highlight the conditions in which they excel (similar to my ‘1 to follow’ posts over on NTF) and look for spots to back them in coming races.

Hopefully that’s clear enough? Good, lets crack on with the inaugural Badly Drawn Horse post…

Race in focus: 2.55 York (25-05-2013): 32Red.com Sprint Handicap – 5f, Class 2 (19 ran)

How the race played out…

York 25-05-2013 - Pace Map

As you can see from my pace map the pace in this race came from the middle to low end of the draw. BOGART from stall 9 attempted to lead but he gave that up after only a furlong and front-running duties fell to stall 7 and JUDGE N JURY. I had already worked out pre-race that there was little to no pace from the high stalls (14+) and that is exactly how it panned out.

Interestingly all runners apart from STRANGE MAGIC in stall 1(who ran on his own on the far side and who’s run you can ignore) gravitated towards the middle to low part of the track, this obviously wasn’t ideal for those that were coming from the high stalls.

The end result…

Winner KINGSGATE CHOICE took full advantage of his positioning and tracked the pace before unleashing a winning run that no-one could match. The top 6 stalls all had to track down and find cover/pace to track as none of them had shown any sort of front running tendencies in any of their recent runs, obviously this instantly put them at a bit of a disadvantage. With that in mind YORK GLORY and ELUSIVITY are the obvious eye-catchers with both managing to get within a length or less of the winner.

From a draw perspective there will be more clear-cut races as we progress through the season but there are still worthwhile pointers we can take from this one…

BDH(s) to follow…

YORK GLORY (2nd) (K Ryan) – There is little doubt in my mind that, from a pace perspective, he wasn’t ideally drawn in stall 15. He had to chase the pace from early doors and track across to get cover and he then had to fight his way through runners who were in reality nowhere near the early to mid-race pace. If we also consider the fact he was hampered 2f out and also didn’t quite get the run he wanted 1f out then this 1/2 length defeat looks even better. Kevin Ryan has always held this horse in high-regard and the signs are there that he is primed to finally land one of these large field valuable handicaps.

Conditions – At this sort of level a strongly run 5f is probably his optimum. He looks relatively adaptable with regards to ground. He looks on a mark he can win from (98) and in honesty he may even have a few lbs up his sleeve.  He can land a similar type of race when he is drawn on the correct side (i.e. with plenty of pace).

ELUSIVITY almost made the list as well, there is no doubt he ran a solid race from his high draw, but I do have a feeling he is slightly anchored by his current mark. If the ground turns soft some time soon he may be of interest but my feeling is he needs to drop a couple of lbs before getting his head back in front. I will keep my eye on him and see if drops down the weights enough for when the ground turns soft again at the back end of the season.

YORK GLORY now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool (horse tracker in other words) and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

I hope you all enjoyed the first ever Badly Drawn Horse Blog post and will continue to follow throughout the summer.

I will leave you with this little ditty…

Ben (BDH)